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Long at 149.55

lse:itv

#1

First of 2 longs, a 2nd if a few pence lower seen. Reasons general & technical. ITV in a recent tight trading range with support not far below. Though Brexit uncertainties affecting sentiment here as with much of the FTSE, with Christmas approaching I do see a feasible break-out well past 150 at some not too distant time.

Target uncertain, but I’m mindful that 160 has seen a lot of resistance here over recent months & will pay heed to that.

PS: A welcome return for me in trading this again after a hiatus & many previous good gains, partly as VOD’s recovery has released plenty of free margin. - GLA.


#2

Hi Jack,

Welcome back on board ITV. Your input is always most welcome.

Regards.

Nige


#3

Hi Nige,

Thanks & I gladly reciprocate in kind. Hence I’ve kept in touch with comments here even when not involved. Good to be trading ITV again, be it with less frequency than before.

As for the currently low SP level: though it seems simplistic to put it down to increasing Brexit uncertainties, for it isn’t the only headwind, that one looming, large issue currently affects sentiment across a few sectors in the FTSE. IMO, there’s little question that it’s also hit confidence in stocks like ITV as it’s likely to affect future revenues for who knows how long. If not for that, we’d be higher.

But with Christmas approaching, I still think it’s an optimum time to be in this stock, mindful that the result & consequences of the Parliamentary vote on 11th December could propel things in either direction for a number of FTSE stocks. Interesting times we live in, to say the least. - Regards & GL.


#4

Hi Jack,

Thanks for your reply.

I totally agree with your comments, and also feel that the sooner Brexit is sorted out, one way or another, the better, as we know markets hate uncertainty. I intend holding on to ITV for the inevitable recovery in the share price. I’m also not ruling out a bid from Mr. Malone once he gets his hands on the Vodafone wad of cash, around May 2019.

GL, Nige.


#5

Added a 2nd long at 145.49. Reasons: SP just above support levels &, like many other UK stocks, it’s being dragged down by negative sentiment around Brexit. Could well go lower in this climate, but one never buys the exact lows (bar from luck) & for me it’s a firm hold until recovery. - GLA.


#6

Add long 133.69. Flexibility called for. A 3rd long here as stock looks ridiculously oversold largely on sentiment & Brexit concerns. Little question here that it’ll be a lot higher again later. - GLA…


#7

With a share price at 126p, ITV has a P/E of 8.3, and a dividend yield of 6.3%. ITV are too cheap IMHO, and look vulnerable to a takeover bid.


#8

Hi Nige,

I’m bound to agree. A few sectors are being sold off almost daily down to multi-year lows for reasons that have less to do with any stock’s fundamentals, but nearly everything to do with increasingly negative sentiment & the political chaos around Brexit. Markets seem to be pricing in a “no deal” disorderly Brexit. But they often overreact in either direction. Now on the bearish side as fear of worse to come dominates.

In this climate, no surprise that my longs have once again been badly mistimed. But once again I shall hold on doggedly for targets as I did before. A 5-year chart shows a stock that seems oversold even by levels seen in 2016 after the Referendum. So we should be very close to finding support at these levels. - Regards.


#9

Hi Jack,

I hope you are well mate?

I also agree with your comments. And would also add, without Brexit I feel that the ITV share price along with a lot of other company’s share prices would be a lot higher. Don’t beat yourself up Jack on the timing of your recent ITV purchases, I’m sure that the SP will recover given time, at least you are being paid 6% while you wait. Lets hope that Brexit gets sorted out ASAP, one way or another. Markets hate uncertainty, as you know.

Regards. & GL.

Nige


#10

Hi Nige,

Thanks for asking & I agree with all you say. I also hope that all else goes well in your life, especially away from markets.

I’m generally okay. But I’d be sparing with the truth not to admit that occasionally when holding rising paper losses through prolonged downturns, one certainly questions oneself & markets. Not least the latter’s efficiency with their preponderance of algo-driven, high-frequency trading that requires little human interaction. I’m not looking to shift personal responsibility. We know this game is never easy. But sometimes the sheer irrationality of markets poses further questions about notions of fair value, etc.

That said, I’ve no serious doubt that this will recover later, with longer-term resistance levels requiring new bullish data to break out. If all thing were equal, we should be approaching an optimum time for stocks like ITV with significant increases in seasonal ad revenues, et al. So I’m quite bullish for once we get clarity on Brexit (a matter I’ve expanded on elsewhere, so I won’t digress here).

As you say, the yield keeps increasing & the stock seems cheap, despite Brexit. I share your views about a possible takeover bid in future. Would buy more at these levels if not for margin considerations. So for me it remains a 100% firm hold for targets. - All the best!


#11

Markets doing a standard correction - all indices are down. I reckon there would be a much bigger slump if ‘no deal’ was truly on the cards. We are not prepared for it. The recent fall in ITV however seems disproportionately awful when compared to other stocks - far worse than CNA or LLOY for example. I can’t find any news that justifies this fall - except maybe the warnings in the last results. I’d say all buys are high risk while this uncertainty and this shambles of a parliament goes on. Cash is king.


#12

Hi Doug,

Mindful that markets are forward-looking & tend to err on the side of caution, I agree that even worse seems likely if Parliament was unable to avoid a disastrous “no deal” by default. Most UK investments would be further hit. The tragedy of this self-inflicted financial damage is that, as it stands, almost anything can happen. But ITV have previously stated that any Brexit will impact negatively on advertising revenues, let alone a no deal. So I feel that some of the fear behind that may be priced in at these levels. Of course I could be wrong.

But whatever happens on the macro-front, the only thing we as individuals can control 100% is whether to buy more, hold or sell. I agree cash may be King in this climate, but I also know that there is no chance of me selling these at loss. - Regards.


#13

Closed at 137.71. Booked 4+ points in view of the extent of the recent bounce here & an uncertain macro-climate. Plus that I’ve still 2 longs left for much higher targets.

No reflection on ITV’s L/T potential. More so a sensible move in view of being leveraged. - GL.


#14

JS

Fair enough, but I reckon there’s still more short term upside re the Sky retransmission deal talks…although of course your longs are still in place to benefit.

I’m minded to leave my low sp tranches in place for now.

“With the current retransmission deal with Sky due to expire this year, if the pair can come to an agreement on retransmission fees it would add around £120m of revenues and lead to a “material uplift” on ITV earnings, the analyst added.”

https://uk.webfg.com/news/news-and-announcements/itv-deal-with-sky-could-be-near-liberum-suggests–3677505.html


#15

Hi El_Kel,

Thanks, including for germane link. Glad to say it looks like you’re right & with 2 longs left I naturally hope ITV’s recovery continues.

But with this complex Brexit business entering critical stages, with a number of outcomes still possible, I had to balance my existing leveraged exposure (still mostly well underwater overall) with occasional new trading temptations/opportunities opening up with other stocks. Hence some profitable reductions here & elsewhere recently, but also a new position opened in another stock today. - Regards & GL.


#16

Long at 133.58. Re-opened 3rd long at slightly better entry than before. This added to longs at 145.49 & 149.55 as posted. Reasons: increasing support not far below, mindful one rarely buys the low.

Target loose, but would again take a few points on this latest add. - GLA.


#17

Added 125.13. A 4th & final long here as stock seems well oversold on sentiment. Today’s results weren’t at all bad. Target in the 130s for this one. - GLA.


#18

Blimey there no stopping you Jack today, see am I following you around again

Personally I hope this bounces for you mate :slight_smile:


#19

Hi Regardless,

I’m feeling a bit more emboldened due to fears of a no-deal Brexit slightly waning, though not yet entirely gone. Hence more rises across UK banks. IQE also recovering & some profit taken. Ditto with one LLOY’s SB.

As noted in another ITV thread: today’s results weren’t that bad. Yes, there were a few negatives, but most revenues up, dividend increased to 8p, debt reduced. I’m genuinely surprised it’s fallen as it has. Will review today’s add when we see back to above 130, the others for higher targets. - Regards.


#20

Closed 132.67. Settled for quick 7.5+ pts. Reasons: only intended shorter-term trade & I have 3 more to cover any continued recovery. - GLA.