I have held FDI for even longer than you, originally through European Diamonds (EPD) & later KDD; with a lot of Open Offer buys, some sells and many additional buys in an attempt to average my FDI share price down; recently to just under 30p a share.
This could make any FDI share buys at 5p very lucrative, but the risks remain high because FDI are yet to find any serious quantities of very large (>100 carat) gem stones of good quality - as they have done in the Liqhobong Main Pipe in the past. This means carat recoveries are significantly lower than hoped at present; with revenues down over the last 9 months through diamond price weakness as well.
Debt was pushed back and more cash was added through the 10p placement and Open Offer last December, to buy time until the better regions of un-weathered could be mined. Q1 in 2018 was impacted by very wet weather, good for the water supplies but bad for ore extraction where flooded. Q2 should be much better in terms of carats recovered and revenues… but we won’t know for a couple more weeks.
Good results could see the SP rise back to 10p progressively, but quite a few large, high quality stones need to be recovered every year (if not quarter) for FDI to achieve its original expectations worth at least 40p a share in the short term, much more longer term.
The decision to mine to a lower depth, to reduce costs, can easily be reversed if diamond recoveries and revenues do improve back to original expectations. None of the major shareholders have reduced their holdings. Some significant holders have taken the low price opportunity to ‘Bed & SIPP’ or ‘Bed & ISA’ FDI stock to reduce tax expectations - which still shows some confidence.
The 24x7 operation is generally working well… another year and we will know a lot more…
In answer to your questions,
a) end Q1 guidance was carat recovery in 2018 near to 800,000 - so lower than their 1,000,000 per annum target, but within the 800,000 to 850,000 forecast for the year whilst they are still clearing a lot of waste and weathered top layers of kimberlite.
b) YES they should have enough cash, and
c) NO, I don’t see any chance of a take-over until the mine is clearly going to be very profitable - and debts are cleared (or will easily be cleared given revenue forecasts over a few years.
p.s. Are any of the other FDI holders still reading this discussion board? That includes:- gliderpilot2, chiromawa54, dragonslayer, baddogrex, helium1, coolkarl, rob1stuart. Views welcomed from you all…