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My LLOY share buys & leveraged long positions collated

lse:lloy

#62

Yes, probably. Must admit was wondering where the floor was on this thing.
Managed to close 2 short positions profitably yesterday and today but got longs that are wrong.

Such is life.

ATB

soi


#63

DRIP shares added today at 53.75. That’ll continue 4 times annually as long as LLOY sub-60p, maybe a bit higher.

Intend to review at 73+ target, also a L/T resistance level. Realistically with Brexit in mind, post-2020.


#64

Only way to go, while we cheap as chips Jack my Man :slight_smile:

60p is way too cheap here IMHO

Quarterly Dividends starting next year, so going to be interesting to see how Lloyds Share Price behaves

Personally if I am happy to hold a losing paper position here with a any share like Lloyds Banking Group, that’s just a little un-loved today, I want to get paid at least a 25% Capital gain on top of any dividend I already received

Just wait until we hit 70p plus all these cheapies we bought in the 50s with be our golden Nuggets in the portfolio

KEEP THE FAITH


#65

Hi Regardless,

Thanks. I tend to agree. LLOY & other UK banks getting a bad rap from various quarters more recently, despite some obvious reasons & increased macro-factor risks behind the low SPs. Once those hurdles are behind us, I anticipate a gradual recovery towards levels of 72+ last seen January 2018.

It’s pertinent that even just a few months ago in April, this was seeing 67+. What’s changed so much since then? Mostly, heightened risks of No-Deal Brexit. Once we get past that, though timing is uncertain, IMO, this will be seen as well oversold.

Meantime, we may well fall back further still over coming weeks & months. Indeed, UK house prices may see a sharper downturn due to a poor Brexit outcome? Uncertainty abounds. But their longer-term trajectory, as history confirms, is to recover well.

As with your approach, LLOY isn’t an intended short-term trade for me. Otherwise, I’d have booked gains on my 52.55 buy. Though I’ll be trading elsewhere as usual, I intend to hang on here for some while to come until said targets reached. The DRIP adds will continue to gradually reduce my average, which is already below 60p. - Regards.


#66

Many analysts agree with you, JD. I think the consensus price target is well above @60p. Seems like a high risk strategy with a Corbyn government and Brexit potential pitfalls ahead, but the greater the risk the greater the reward if it all plays out for you.

Good luck.

P.S. I’ve inherited a few thousand LLOY shares so I’d like to see those analyst price targets achieved also. I wouldn’t personally be involved if the choice were mine originally, however.


#67

I hold a few shares that would be negatively impacted by a Corbyn administration. Not too worried though because I reckon a coalition is more likely and if it was a Lib or SNP coalition I am pretty sure that his hands would be tied. Brexit is more of a worry as it would have a more negative impact on the economy than a full fledged Corbyn government.

Frog in a tree


#68

Hi Eadwig & Fiat,

Thanks. Valid points from both of you.

Though I’m not anti-Corbyn, which seems a contradiction of self-interest with my involvement in financial markets, I think most people will agree that we’d probably see a general sell-off across markets if he were to win an outright majority. At least initially.

But as it stands, with his ratings in all polls consistently poor at a time when any main opposition leader should be riding high, I’m with Fiat on this one. It seems almost impossible for Corbyn to win a majority. Far more likely we’d see a coalition.

Hard to be sure what kind of coalition right now. Swinson has dissed Corbyn extensively as someone totally unfit to be PM. Whilst Labour recently once again ruled out any alliance with the SNP even if there was a hung Parliament.

My guess is that when push comes to shove, with Brexit being a key issue, coalitions would still be managed if called for. Possibly between Labour & LibDems, & just long enough to get us through to holding a 2nd Vote if we haven’t left by then. LibDems would also curb anything too radical from Labour’s left-wing. But I doubt such a coalition would last for long.

But even greater risk exists until this Brexit madness is put to bed. We’ll agree that the quickest & most democratic way to achieve a resolution is to give the people a 2nd Vote. So we have to hope that the undemocratic, deceitful, right-wing Johnson regime (for it’s hardly a functioning government any longer!) falls sooner than later. - Regards.


#69

Yes, I agree that in the event of a hung parliament everyone would look to form a coalition. Of course Labour couldn’t say it would seek a coalition with the SNP after the Tories successfully played the English nationalist card in the 2015 election. Everyone is being cagey.

Juncker has just made a statement to the 27 saying that no concrete proposals have been put forward by the Johnson team for resolving the backstop issue. He was as close as you can get to saying that the negotiations are a sham. Its clearly what he believes. He also said he would neve agree a deal that damages Ireland.

It seems that it is not only Johnson that can play the no deal card.

Johnson will have to face up to the consequences outlined in the Yellowhammer report and the likelihood of many years of economic damage if he goes ahead with a No deal Brexit. His reputation will be ruined forever if he goes ahead with it.

This Tory civil war is going to damage us all.

Frog in a tree


#70

Sold at 67.31. The huge degree of profit on these LLOY shares too much for me to resist, especially with Brexit ahead. Still hold 3 tranches for further review.

By the by, tried to sell higher but had 5 failed orders with ii. Annoying, but still a very decent day. - GLA.


#71

Sold at 67.39 - 3rd tranche bought at 62.48.

Simply rather book more profits with Brexit ahead & 2 tranches left.

To each their own as usual. Will buy back on any significant reversal.


#72

Bought back a 3rd tranche at 62.55. All things considered, I feel this will be higher again later even if it falls much lower first.

Whilst a hard Brexit isn’t out of the question, the UK can hardly afford such an outcome. Whilst the Tories now have a commanding majority, Johnson won’t want to be the PM who damaged UK’s economy further & lost the Union. I know that history & how it’ll judge any PM are very important matters to him. He almost sees himself as another Churchill of our times, as absurd as that seems. So I think the UK will eventually get its trade Deal, UK’s economy will stagger on avoiding deep crisis & LLOY will be fine, be it not without further volatility.

That said, I have contingency plans to buy back a 4th tranche if well under 60p seen again. Basically, rinse & repeat. Also content to hold for more dividends like last time if needed. - GLA. - Typo corrected.


#73

Agree with what you say, Jack… BUT, what if Johnson has bought the ‘case’ for No Deal and cheap food from the USA etc and is ignoring all the civil service figures?


#74

Hi Eadwig,

I agree that little can be wholly ruled out. It’s possible that Johnson will be radical on how he plays out Brexit, as his majority now allows. But that majority also allows him to bypass the ERG’s more extreme demands.

In the event of No-Deal, can cheap food or any other trade deals with USA ever compensate for what will be sharply increased tariffs on all UK business with the EU? Highly doubtful. About 45% of all UK exports & 53% of imports were with the EU last year.

Hence my earlier view. Johnson, for all his buffoonery, has a keen sense of history & how it judges political legacy. As one who’s been deviously clever in advancing himself into No 10 when a only few years ago not many gave him a cat’s chance in hell of ever being PM, I think he’ll do what’s best for Boris Johnson. I believe that won’t include plunging UK’s economy into a possible recession by embracing a hard Brexit, for all his bluster in trying to play hardball with the EU.

Of course I could be mistaken, but I can only follow my own intuition on this as on anything else. - Regards. - Typo edited: “were” not “where”.


#75

People keep saying this but I have seen nothing that shows that the ERG group/far right wasn’t strengthened by the new intake in the general election.

I think its a big leap of faith to assume they’re all one nation Tories replacing those that didn’t re-run as well as the extra bodies who managed to appeal to people in the more extreme Leave areas.

I imagine this will become clearer throughout January, until then I’m obliged to assume the worst case scenario and continue to protect myself against that.


#76

Bought back a 4th tranche at 56.78. Reasons: adding for longer-term targets & relatively little time to monitor this too often as focus is elsewhere. Targets: will again review at least a couple of tranches at circa 66-to-67+, which saw me sell 2 tranches previously.

As I’m still mostly in cash, I may consider one final add if closer to 52 seen. We’ll see, but that’s not definite even if it goes that low. - GLA.