Menu
Close

New Buy Back Oct 2019

lse:sle

#61

Alaric says I think the management are crap, which is mostly true.

However, I also said that i thought they’d done a masterful job gaining finance at a difficult time to pull off the OML18 deal. The one thing they’ve done well and made money at. I have suggested more than once they should drop the ‘exploration and production’ stuff from their RNSs and just concentrate on financing deals like this.

But then my posts are nuanced and give credit when its due. Not an unremitting, rose-tinted view about everything coming good eventually and standing in profit as things are anyway (not specifically referring to any individual here, but it has been said more than once from more than one source).

The fact there hasn’t been a lot of credit to give to SLE isn’t my fault. So I come over as a harsh critic. SLE hardly help themselves with a vastly over-paid CEO (including bonuses!) and private loans on the company for $17.6m houses (I think it was) when most shareholders are well underwater and waiting for something to happen. Plus getting involved in controversial claims in Western Sahara , running court cases down to the wire, accounts auditors refuse to sign off on, dubious deals in Poland, selling off the only profitable wells to ex-directors (or employees, I forget) … the list goes on and on.

I wonder if Alaric has investments anywhere else? He sounds like a young man so has time to make mistakes and still recover, but time flies as us older people know and sometimes you get hit with a 20% pay cut you just couldn’t anticipate E.g. result of the Brexit referendum for those of us living or with financial commitments abroad.

My position here is about 3% of my overall stock portfolio value (less if you take current value and not book cost of my position) and stocks make up less than half of my assets. So, I can afford to take a hit here if it comes to that, although I no longer have any income to speak of, so I’d rather not! In fact I always find losing money really boring.

But I’m still hopeful that this bleedin seller may run out soon. No blocks of 100,000 the last two days, or yet today, so who knows? The buyback started really well in terms of raising the stock price and would take off again if this seller runs out of stock, despite it only being a far too small amount in terms of market cap under most circumstances. SLE’s circumstances are far from standard, as we’re all to well aware.

If I have to hold over into the next tax year with these tranches that would be bad and a drag on my annual target of 15%+ across my whole portfolio. As I believe I said in one of my previous posts, if I wanted to hold an oiler for dividends, I’d go with Shell, not SLE.


#62

maybe we’re at cross purposes Eadwig. personally i reckon anything you’ve bought sub 30p is pretty decent but i would, at this late stage of the story, be patient for a bit longer. i am also surprised that people are selling at these levels (particularly given the story slowly unfolding now and the hugely improved downside exposure) and that we have slid back as much as we have. the principal shareholders haven’t been selling though. that said i am not so surprised that the sbb and general divi announcement of themselves didn’t do it. i think we will still need more visibility on the ACOES and next year, than some clever posters tracking the FSO’s progress through the indian ocean. in my view san leon is far too risky a play, as you appear to have done, for short term gains in a broken AIM hydrocarbons sector and given our heavy institutional ownership (unattractive to other hedge funds coming in and thus rendering us too reliant on retail buying in the free float). but any maths you do on the value of OML18 now compared to when it was acquired quickly and easily demonstrates the value proposition. as you know i see efficient export of oil from the field now as the key to value release and further value enhancement through field development. if you don’t buy that part of the story (as clearly i do) then i don’t understand how you remain invested here. reading your comments about the company’s role in the further exploration and development of OML18 suggest you are badly out of step with the reality here, though. i don’t look to mock you but i genuinely don’t understand your strategy. i am not addressing the rest of your garbage about your portfolio management, my age and my portfolio, as it is what it says on the pack, just that.


#63

A lot of people would agree with you on that - in fact several have warned me against a basically standard trade in a company that is so illiquid. I may well end up paying a price for such a mistake. It wont be the first or last time.

If I get 3 out of every 5 right and keep the losses down on the bad ones, that equates to a reasonable profit at the end of each year. Usually.

I thought I was being clever and that the illiquidity would play into my hands and that even such a small buyback might push the price up for greater gains. I didn’t expect the daily buy to be so small and regular and evenly spread though. Not that I had any reason to believe it would be otherwise. That’s the risk though, isn’t it?

There were a couple of other reasons (bad ones it seems now) I won’t bore you with, but at the end of the day it hasn’t worked - and doesn’t look like it will at this point. I’ll have to take a decision when the dividend is finally announced, probably, because I don’t think anything else will boost the share price prior to the next trading statement - which will have to be a lot better than the last one.

Its not that I don’t buy it necessarily. It is a timescale I’m not interested in for my own investment strategy/horizons, or whatever you want to label it. I hoped to be out of this trade before Xmas, for example. If I can make 15% in 6 months I’m well ahead of the game. I thought I saw an opportunity to do that here.

I’m skeptical about rises on progress because SLE’s price hasn’t reacted to positive news for a long time. It doesn’t react to oil price rises, which is a sign too I think. SLE is stuck somewhere between jaded investors (and market) and producing accounts showing an operating profit - with the wild card of the loan note cash to pay out.

So, positive news flow isn’t going to move the needle very much, I don’t think. It will have to be hard news of cash pay outs or accounts showing operational profits made … not more promises about potential. That is my genuine view based on past observations.

I’ve been involved in an energy company for a long time that had got itself into a similar position. Too many promises, too little delivered, especially on time. Recently they took on a new non-exec from Rolls Royce who is used to the technology and put in charge of the commercial side and paid in warrants at @5p

I’m not quite sure what he’s done differently, but after 10 years there is a product launch coming on 6th December (clearly timetabled in advance), and suddenly every time a little bit of positive news was released it has raised the share price. A big announcement; 100% in two days, then another and another 100% rise. Then a small one … a director buys about £10ks worth of shares (big deal!) and it adds another 100%.

@5p to @28p in about 6 days… and I’m betting it goes again on the 6th Dec now it has fallen back a bit.

That is the sort of thing SLE need. I mean P.R.-wise, not a new product. They’ve never been any good at P.R. and don’t seem to care about the share price. Some people say management shouldn’t. I’m in the other camp. I think that is one of the jobs of a CEO.

So there you are. You may not understand my strategy still, but for a full understanding of anyone’s approach you do actually need to know their age and what their goals are and how long they are allowing to achieve them.

Its the first thing a financial advisor wants to know from you, and with good reason. If you think its garbage you should maybe talk to a professional some time and put a plan in place for yourself. First thing he’ll say is ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’. You can have that one for free.


#64

Eadwig - Thanks for your comments - your reply to Alaric is more than the little pipsqueak deserves.


#65

Date ++ Shares ++ Price ++ Total. Running Total*
18 Oct . 94,482 -26.46p £25,250 $32,572
21 Oct . 29,000 -27.91p .£8,174 $43,199
22 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $75,771
23 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $108,283
24 Oct. 88,192 -28.35p £25,252 $‭140,859
25 Oct. --------- --------- £--------- $140,859
28 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $173,178
29 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $205,750 10% completed
30 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $‭238,322
31 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $270,895
01 Nov. 88,967 -28.10p £25,250 $303,467
04 Nov. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $336,040
05 Nov. 92,165 -27.125p £25,250 $368,612
06 Nov. 92,592 -27.00p £25,250 $401,184 20% Completed
07 Nov. 90,909 -27.50p £25,250 $433,504
08. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭465,824
11. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭498,144 25% Completed
12. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $530,464
13. Nov. 91,575, -27.30p £25,250 $‭562,784
14. Nov. 93,283 -26.30p £25,250 $595,104 30% completed
15. Nov. 92,250 -27.10p £25,250 $627,677
18. Nov. 94,339 -26.50p £25,250 $660,502 1/3rd completed
19. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $693,074
20. Nov. 97,656 -25.60p £25,250 $725,646
21. Nov. 97,276 -25.70p £25,250 $758,215
22. Nov. 98,039 -25.50p £25,250 $790,535
25. Nov. 96,153 -26.00p £25,250 $823,107 approx 41% completed
26. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $855,680
27. Nov. 97,513 -25.64p £25,250 $888,252
28. Nov. 97,656 @25.60p £25,250 $920,826
29. Nov. 94,768 @26.38p £25,250 $‭953,399**

Total number of Ordinary Shares in issue with voting rights now ‭452,911,921‬**

*Approx Running total in US Dollars inc. 1% stamp duty Fx rate taken from US close and rounded to the nearest cent.

**To be confirmed in Monday’s RNS


#66

wow you’ve certainly written with some candour, Eadwig, from the ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ primary school of investing. well thanks for that. for sure in short term horizon investing, you shouldn’t be messing with stocks like san leon! (aside from pure arb plays i’m not really sure what short term investing is but i guess there’s a few million sucker day traders out there every day losing).

if i may offer some advice myself? your short term punt here has gone spectacularly wrong and it has unwittingly become first a medium term play and now a long term one (OK admission : even i thought we’d be here by now). but why not face that reality now - this was always a ‘story’ investment, which would take some time to develop. and given you have unwittingly but, as it will turn out, quite cleverly built a position sub 30p, you could belatedly choose to accept the new strategy that fate has thrust on you. the big point you are still missing is that the ACOES isn’t just a bit of news on progress, it will be transformational to OML18 production and thus revenues. you need to do the maths on what you think the asset is worth now, compared to when it was first acquired. i’ve lost track of production a bit now but something like 30k a day after losses, which is awful but way more than Shell ended up doing. and then take the losses away and you’re north of 50k a day and then with field development you are heading towards their target of 100k plus. but forget the last figure though because it doesn’t matter for now and sure will take more time to reach. at 50k a day, the field will be funding dividends to shareholders for the first time. that’s actual oil revenue for the first time, not just some medium term financing revenue from a very clever deal that Oisin and Martin Hughes pulled off to fund this whole thing. so what value the asset then? this is the only question for investors to ask about san leon. and then you still have the potential for short-term organic growth - what if we acquire a bigger interest in OML18 from NNPC at this turning point in the field’s history, but i think that’s too much story now for your short term sensibilities. if not for you, though, you should sell.

one last recent thought to ponder from bluerill on the other board: ‘In the meantime I think that, while the drifting share price is painfully frustrating, this buyback period is not only helping a year-end tax loss/margin-pressured seller to reduce efficiently, but it is also allowing a smart buyer or buyers to build a position outside the company’s buying.’


#67

If you think I should sell now you must think there is more down side than upside from this point, which I don’t believe and I don’t think you do either so I wonder at your ‘advice’ to realise a loss now.

If I have to take a loss so be it. Friday’s close saw my highest ever portfolio value ever, so I’ll continue with my investing/trading strategy which has served me well over 25 years, thanks.

Operational profits are a long way off according to the H1 results, even if the latest well adds another 5000 bpd it will only reduce losses so far as I can see.

As for ACOES being ‘transformational’ that remains to be seen and it will take a long time for that picture to become clear. Individual investors will have to take their own view on that and what it means for the longer term.


#68

look Eadwig we need to wrap this discussion. this stock is now so deeply discounted as to be absurd: short of armagedon i don’t see any downside now but only a big upside for reasons given. but you don’t agree, which is just fine by me provided you stop writing at length about a stock, which by your own admission you neither like nor understand. you don’t buy the company’s business case, its present strategy or its management. everything you write suggests to me that you are wholly unsuited to investments like San Leon. do yourself a favour and all of us at the same time and go. if your portfolio has done as well as you say, why not sell and take the tax loss? enough now.


#69

just meant to add, you need to lose your toady, melody maker. he’s a jerk and adds nothing to your bizarre investment story.


#70

And you have the cheek to call me pompous! I’ll continue to post whatever I like wherever I like, thanks, and I have admitted nothing of the sort.

In fact, I pointed out the operational problems with OML 18 in 2016, remember?

The company is just now catching up … you’d do yourself a favour if you could actually admit the reality and recognise that you were one of those not even prepared to listen at the time, let alone understand.

Not that it took any great understanding, the problems were laid out plainly in the annual report of the company from which SLE purchased its interest (MART something or other was it? I forget). When someone is selling something, isn’t it normal to ask why they’re selling? Especially when they’re going bankrupt with production hedged at $90 a barrel. Losses have increased since then, by the way.

By the time SLE might have addressed the problems sufficiently, 4 years will have passed. More like 5 from the date of the reports describing them which were available in the public domain.

I neither like nor dislike any stock. Getting emotionally attached to a stock is ridiculous.

I don’t have any faith in SLE management successfully executing the operating business case for obvious reasons. I.e. They never have.

I’ll state that loud and clear as and when I feel it needs to be said.


#71

… and yet you still hold and indeed bought more in October. as i suggested before, that’s one bizarre investment strategy.


#72

Now now boys.
Alaric has made at least one good point…”this has gone on long enough”
You guys are never going to agree as one has rose tinteds and the other wears gray.
Al is in cahoots with LD (who’s too busy cutting and pasting to join in) and Ead is purporting to be the voice of reason.
I’m tending towards the voice of reason too, being sceptical about the company’s prospects but still holding for reasons I explained earlier.
So, I’ve got more interesting irons in the fire. I’m going to have a bacon sandwich and do a little gardening whilst the sun is shining.
Enjoy what’s left of the weekend folks
TP


#73

… voice of reason, you say TP?? Eadwig’s thinking process here appears to be something along these lines:

  1. i like plays that can return me 15% in a shortish term
  2. i don’t like san leon management, which has a poor record on delivering
  3. i don’t think san leon should get involved in further exploration, production or development
  4. i don’t trust that the new ACOES will be delivered q2 next year or even if it does that it will work in producing more revenues from the oilfield
  5. even though the price is evidently deeply discounted now , i have no view on the value proposition of san leon save that the company has been making a loss
  6. last month i thought to myself i shall buy some more san leon to add to my strategic holding as i think the price will rise
  7. the price has gone down since but i’m not selling because i think the price will still go up from here
  8. even though i’m in profit across the rest of my portfolio and could sell san leon as a tax loss, i’m not going to as i think the price will rise
  9. even though san leon represents only a tiny portion of my extensive and otherwise remarkably successful portfolio, i dedicate my life now to writing long and extremely boring essays on why san leon is an investment to be avoided at all costs, whilst holding and when the price dips adding to my own holding in it
  10. i want to leave my collected essays for the future benefit of mankind and dedicate them to the memory of jean-jacques rousseau and pray that we now enter a new Age of Reason, where pesks like Alaric will not have the temerity to challenge my humbug and hypocrisy.
  11. oh and thanks to all my toadies on the II board like TP and melody maker, who are much nicer than that uncouth lot on lse board, where I get completely rinsed everytime i dare go there

#74

Just come in from pruning cherry trees, having a well earned coffee! I really don’t know how you guys find the time to waste on these futile analyses. You surely must have a better way of spending a Sunday morning. Must be city dwellers who have nothing to do till the shops open and you can consume some more “stuff”. :rofl::rofl:


#75

His analysis started off quite well but quickly degenerated into lies, fantasies insults and innuendo. Why? I have been perfectly candid about my position in SLE and even referred him to the posts I made about my ‘live’ buys, my thesis on this occasion and admitted I probably got it wrong this time. So what is his problem?

He’s desperate for me to sell at a loss. But the thesis still has about 6 weeks to play out. Why would he urge anyone to sell at a loss?

As for wasting time posting on SLE, I post in plenty of other places and at equal length. I type at the speed of a fast professional typist and Alaric has always misunderstood that and equates length with time. Not the only thing he’s misunderstood.

The LSE (london south east - NOT the london stock exchange) board is full of what Alaric refers to as toadies. I refer to them as his claque. He holds court there in the same way he thinks he can here, E.g .

How deluded is a shareholder who thinks he can waltz around social media telling people to stop posting if they don’t agree with his own outlook and that will in some way help the stock. A stock which is held by about 85%+ of insiders by the way, and they still can’t get the price up!

… if he had any real confidence in the stock he wouldn’t care one jot what anyone was writing. Or perhaps he would. Maybe he’s that personally invested and lost all perspective.

The fact is the one guy responding to my questions on SLE contradicted himself and the case for SLE so often that it wasn’t worth the effort.

The thread, started by someone else, was ‘Who is the seller?’. I think that is a valid question, I’m certainly puzzled, but no discussion is allowed - and I wasn’t even criticising SLE except to say what I said right from the start, I thought the buyback was too small and I hoped they’d be more aggressive in their approach or it would achieve nothing. Well, that seems to be the case, because Cantor look like they don’t have any instructions other than ‘buy £25k per day when possible’.

In which case, what is the point of the buyback? What is it trying to achieve? Valid questions that we can only muse on, but no less interesting for those who have a stake involved.

The latest theory from Alaric and his toadies is that SLE are buying £25k of shares per day and another buyer is cleverly and patiently building up a position. They don’t explain how the price keeps going down in that case. Except they often refer to the ‘broken hydro-carbon’ market. Which sounds like an excuse to me.


#76

theprior - MM! hope you enjoyed your bacon sandwich must admit it is also one one of my favourite snacks - the cherry trees sound beautiful look forward to an update when they are coming into bloom; indeed your comments make a welcome change from the endless abusive and futile analysis style of Alaric and his sister Blue something or other from the SLE schoolyard. Eadwig has been good enough to openly share his investing history with this board in a reasonable and respectful manner, all credit to him for that, and all he has met with is disrespect and abuse,an intolerable situation.


#77

yes yes bla bla bla, Eadwig, but in essence you’re still at least going to hold as you believe the price will rise from here? yes? or have i misunderstood?


#78

Thanks for those kind words.

The situation is far from intolerable. I’m quite used to AIM cheerleaders in MUCH greater numbers attacking my posts when I point out negatives.

Not only on AIM either, but they are certainly the worst examples.

A lot of people have lost sight of the fact that these are supposed to be ‘discussion boards’ it seems to me.


#79

I made it 100% clear, but you’re so busy making up stories you obviously can’t take it in.

I shall be holding into the new year. I’m HOPING we will see the price rise, but I share your fear it is probably heading downwards which means that selling now would be wiser.

However, on balance the downside, assuming support @22p or before (and this could be exactly the same mistake I’m making), is less than the potential upside from a dividend announcement - or even the seller running out of stock - which could see the price rise comfortably into the mid @30s before attracting more sellers.

I still think there can’t be that many people in such a hurry to realise a loss here, not with a large pile of cash ready to be paid out.


#80

Cheers MM. I’ll have to explore how you can attach a photo on this site. But they’re not pink, they’re white flowers, grown for fruit not fragrance.
Must admit though I find Eadwig’s comments far more realistic given the historical evidence of this company’s performance
TP