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One to watch

lse:casp

#1

Why Caspian?
First they currently have 4 wells in production flowing at 1900 bopd from the shallow (MJF) structure.
whilst these are still on an exploration license and have to sell at local rates of $16 -19. This income (@16$) in round figures is $30k per day / or $11m pa.
Currently three well in progress …
A5 flowed at 3800bopd before problems and if this sort of flow rate can be re- established and sustained the income becomes $33m pa
801 with the sidetrack and 75m of perforation done is now almost complete. currently being cleaned up … flow rates will be interesting … added income can only be speculation
A6 is to be re perforated and work should start soon now that the drilling pipe used at 801 is available…
A8 to be spudded and at only 1km from A5 has great potential… sustained flow rates from A5 will be know by this time …
All this at exploration rates … but the income could still be quite substantial … taking us into 2019??
This is (imo) one to watch


#2

So been a month (ish) news of A5 & A6 started must be about due … initial flow rates of 801 could be the start of bigger things to come … if they pull this off successfully 10p will be cheap … watch this space


#3

fynne, Agreed if they do get the deeps flowing then sp should quickly go into the 20`s and then if, and this is the rub, they get all three deeps to flow continuously without any further problems, then a share price of 30 to 40p is not out of the question. However, they may get three months trial production out of 801 and A5 prior to end 2018 but A6 may only start testing towards the end of 2018. I hope the shallows are producing in excess of 2000 bpd to underpin the financials of the company. Kaz bureaucracy is painful so if the export licence for the shallows is achieved in 2018 I will be very happy. So we either need a blockbuster RNS or a steady flow of RNS news, I would prefer the latter, perhaps, one deep flowing , others in progress ; two deeps successfully flowing and shallows in excess of 2500 bpd; two deeps flowing, 3A best deal concluded, shallows still good; then to finish the year 3 deeps flowing, shallows on export in excess of 2500 bpd, multi - drill schedule for 2019 announced.
Happy Days
I wish.


#4

There must be news about A5 and A6 … possible news of early flow rates on 801 but seems likely they may wait and bundle some of this together.
A5 previously flowed at 3800 bopd … anywhere near that on sustained flow would be a lot of oil (and money) pressure remains steady so they know the oil is there !! They will be better prepared for the high pressure encountered especially when they spud A8 … decent income and into 2019 … Fingers crossed


#5

3000 bopd is over a million barrels a year… multiply that by the price of oil … possibly from just A5 and it’s easy to see the potential … I’m liking casp atm


#6

Must be due some news here soon … been six weeks since the last production update … not expecting full flow rate results on 801 yet but confirmation A5 has been a success will be welcome news


#7

fynne, I fear that even if 801 is producing 3000 bpd and MJF 3000 bpd, we will not see a big jump in the sp. I just don`t think the market has a lot of trust in the BOD and management of CASP. Even if a deep flows this week, will it still flow next week? I am just hoping for a bit of good news and a sp hike so I can sell and move on.
IMHO


#8

bob, funny but casp doesn’t seem to pander to the market … which I quite like.
The potential is pretty big here but they just need a little luck unlocking it.
Guess the downside of a small O&G …
No regrets here (yet) … got sucked into matd (only in a small way) their rns today wasn’t the best !!
The difference between someone looking for oil and those trying to exploit what they’ve found I guess?


#9

Interim results for 6 months to June 2018 published last week, Just more of the same, none of the 3 deep wells are cleaned up and producing and the shallow wells are not producing as strongly as they were at the beginning. Producing around 1800 bpd with a shallow potential capacity of 2000 bpd. So Clive had better alter his stock statement that shallow wells will pay for themselves in 12 months, they no longer will - each well will probably produce around 100 to 150 bpd so the payback will be about 3 years for each well. We might have a deep well producing in excess of 2500 bpd by the end of 2018. 90 days of production would be very welcome before it is shut in to await the trial production licence, which could take in excess of three months to come through due to Kaz red tape. Share price around 9.25p now
IMHO DYOR


#10

The saying is “no news is good news” in the event of confirmed “bad news” the market would need to be informed. So, so far, no bad news?
Upside is they know oil is there … The gamble is definitely getting one of these deep wells to flow …
We should know one way or the other soon and then it’ll either be 15 or 5p (give or take)


#11

Mid morning RNS today, Operations update, deep well A8 spudded and drilling ahead. Deep well A5 still blocked by a 1 metre metal obstruction! Could be another sidetrack, a likely outcome imo. Deep well 801 awaiting a pressure build up before 90 day test, here`s hoping for 2500 bpd soon.
CASP also have steady production at around 1800 bpd from shallow wells.
If I were a potential investor here, I think that under 6.5p to buy this would be a (very) speculative buy.
But I bought for nearly twice that amount, so I still hold and for a good 2019 reward.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#12

Operational update RNS today. Share price around 7p. Shallow wells producing around 1500 bpd and selling for $21/22 per barrel. So there is cash coming into the company at around $1 million per month. The company now admits that each shallow well production is going to be nowhere near the 500 bpd mark, for me an average of 250 bpd from a shallow well would be an excellent result. Problems still ongoing at all the drilled deep wells, so I expect that if they cannot be produced during 2019 they will be abandoned. Deep well A8 drilling ahead, I hope it will be on test by October 2019. As per my previous post these shares look to be a speculative buy at around 6.5p in the hope that a deep well is successful and proves up a large oil field.
CASP is certainly not an exciting share to hold.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#13

Yes, no really positive news on the deep wells which is disappointing… I live in hope


#14

RNS today 22/1/2019, the 3ABest acquisition has now completed, so at least one well will be drilled there within next two years. The company think there may be oil in the deeper plays as well as the shallows, so will they just go for it and drill beyond 3000 metres to 6000 metres if they find an optimum location? The shallow MJF wells even at 1500 bpd will bring in over $20 million pa when international prices kick in for $40 per barrel.
The board of directors clearly believe they have elephant or even giant oil fields on their licences at deeper levels and are determined to find out if its true. However drilling the wells is technically difficult and taking a lot longer than we hoped. It is now all about the deeps for the big rewards here. I note there was a recent buying opportunity below 6.5p and a lot of buyers took advantage of it.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#15

Ops Update RNS today 13/3/2019. Share price currently below 6p. Shallow wells bread and butter production just over 1500 bpd at around $20.50 pb brings in around $940,000 per month, this should rise to around $1,550,000 per month when export permit arrives, another two months to wait imo.
Deeps: A5 I assume the drilling/milling out of the obstruction is completed and the assessment of the rest of the casing can now commence, may get a positive update next month.
801 Pressure steady same readings as January, but now international consultants asked to advise.
A6 International consultants advising way forward.
A8 drilling reached top of salt at 3900m next target 4400m to break through salt, target depth 5300m. I expect result in June 2019.
Worth a punt now, as not much downside left and could double on a deep well producing 2500 bpd.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#16

Always liked this one but you do have to be patient.
RNS shows things are progressing …(slowly) but having a steady income, even at the exploration rate stops the endless fund raises some suffer from.
The deep wells offer the bigger return but are proving harder to get flowing.
Get the production licence and I’d like to see a couple more shallow wells drilled?


#17

As I said in March worth a punt below 6p for any newbies. Share price now just over 10p so this was an opportunity to make money and still is if CASP can get a deep well to flow. Its all about the deeps or is it a single massive deep? Time will tell.


#18

Yes still hanging in there … shallow wells are paying the bills and should get more development imo.
but like you say, get one deep well to flow at the sort of rate they are capable of and it’s a game changer?


#19

A little bemused by the continued reference to core samples, even if they have decided “they have more than enough!” drilling to finish the well now.
Question remains… will it flow ???


#20

Further momentum may come from pending announcement of full production licence for the shallows. Once revenue from the shallows is doubled I expect CASP to immediately announce the further shallow continuous drilling campaign for the 10 extra shallow wells. One rig or two I don`t really care just as long as they continue to drill the shallows. I do not expect much more than 200 bpd from each well, and not all will produce at the same time. So if we have say 16 shallow MJF wells I would only expect 11 or 12 to be producing at any one time. These shallow wells need time and work to help them recover periodically.
But clearly the deeps are the main driver, if A8 can drill to its targets and then produce oil and lots of favourable reservoir (s) data then we could see share price rises in excess of 10p per day. It looks as if CASP are going to give numerous updates rather than having to wait several weeks or months for any news. A further boost will be if we get any production from A5 ,A6 or 801.
Enjoy the ride.
DYOR