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lse:casp

#21

So much potential and news …
I would like to see more emphasis on the shallows and export license … generate a decent income to pay the bills …


#22

Ops update today confirming that CASP have put shallow well workovers on hold to save money. Therefore output from the shallows gradually declining. All due to Kazakh red tape and inefficiencies that have meant delays to the full production licence which should have been a formality and granted months ago.


#23

RNS … Work on getting the deep wells to flow continues…
however, not a major part of the rns but new license on the shallow wells . Bit vague but is this a production license with the respective increase in price they sell the oil??
Drilling program here to go ahead and would generate some serious revenue if I’m reading it correctly??


#24

fynne, The oil from the shallow MJF structure, which is heavy oil, and as such does not attract a premium price, can now be sold at international prices. CASP are still to negotiate with an oil trader to take the MJF oil on a 70/30 basis, that is 70% of production can be sold at international prices about $40 pb and 30% still sold at domestic prices about $20 pb. When more revenue comes in they can clean up the existing wells and start to drill on a 10 well fill in campaign, and it looks as if they are going to buy a rig to do the job. We are I think looking at three years to have 16 wells that between them will produce 4000 bpd at best. I think 200 bpd from a shallow well is good.
It is all about the deeps, and progress is very slow, I think at least two or three months before one will flow. I can see the share price drifting below 10p yet again in the short term.
IMHO


#25

i agree it’s been painfully slow progress on the deep wells … but none have been abandoned and it is still progress. Get one these to flow at a decent rate and it will be worth the wait I believe.
Revenue from the shallow wells is helping to pay the bills so any extra income there is a bonus


#26

Something not getting a mention about CASP is its obligation to drill two wells on the 3A Best contract area. The first has to spud by the end of 2019 for a cost of $1.2 m and a second has to spud by end of March 2020 at a cost of $1.4 m. If CASP intend to purchase a rig, I would suggest its first missions will be to drill these two 3A Best wells. How much does a rig cost $2 m ? So I cannot see any shallow infill drilling until around May 2020. I would guess their best bet would be to workover the existing six MJF wells to increase production, and hope they get a deep flowing on test for three months at 2500 bpd.
DYOR


#27

As the thread title … guess a few are watching… and waiting.
A lot happening though … (and as you suggest) getting one deep well to flow consistently will make this company…


#28

Interim report out … a lot happening and worth a read.


#29

Realise ii as a discussion board has all but collapsed (other than “brexit)?
if anyone bothers to read this CASP have now bought their own drilling rigs and plan to drill 18 … yes 18 !! wells in their shallow field next year.
As they now have the production license for this field income has increased significantly.
The deep well which have much higher potential continue to be “elusive” but if they can get these to flow, that would be a real game changer. imo


#30

Sold these in July, in anticipation of drift back down, which it did. Share price now approaching price I sold at, in anticipation of a deep well actually flowing. MJF output still declining as lack of maintenance bites, international prices will only bring in $26 per barrel, this has to fund the costs of working over the existing wells and infill wells, two wells on 3A best, and continued clean up operations on the deeps. Lots of additional costs for wages of the drilling crews and the usual G&A costs. I do not expect the shallow MJF wells each to produce in excess of 200 bpd. A combined yearly average in excess of 2000 bpd would be good imho. It is all about the deeps, no deeps flowing by end of 2019 will spell big financial trouble for CASP.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#31

Don’t expect these to drift down much volume of traded shares is usually low with the majority held by only a few big holders.
The decline in production on the shallow wells was expected but little was done till the production licence was granted.
Two wells (of the six) have already had a work over with 50% increase in their production.
Past production had slipped to 1200b per month, so something more like 1800 from the six (300pm ea)
From 24 wells (7200bpm x12 86400pa) @$28 average? … you are correct, not stunning but more like 3600bop year each.
(All averaged figures)
On the running costs btw, they’ve just bought three rigs and associated drilling equipment for the purpose of drilling these new wells (and working over the old ones) so future costs will be kept lower than expected.
Purchase was with shares (@10p) with the vendor agreeing not to trade for six months min.
They also still have some cash available from the $40m equity facility so they’re not going to need new finance any time soon.
You are also correct that this has always been about the deep wells … four all in various stages, but the progress has been painfully slow.
I think they’ll get it right soon and hopefully will have learned a lot should they attempt a new deep drill?
I live in hope … all done scribbled on a note pad so dyor etc


#32

RNS update, problems with deep wells have now hopefully been put to bed… now let’s try getting the things to flow a decent amount of oil. !!


#33

fynne, No confirmation yet, afaics, that any deeps are flowing. If CASP state a deep has flowed for a week without problems you could be onto a big winner here. But really three months flow will be needed to convince me, and by then CASP should have the other deeps flowing. If so you could be looking at a share price in excess of 30p.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#34

No, I meant that the obstruction in a5(?) etc had been successfully sidetracked.
Preparation to perforate “should” be more straightforward !! … but this month there are four deep wells reaching the point of flow/testing.
I know it’s been here before but the odds are in their favour… :crossed_fingers:t3:


#35

Yesterdays RNS was upbeat so CASP could yet turn out to be a big winner for you. Good Luck


#36

Good to see a production increase from the shallow wells … with the increase in price achieved and the 18 new wells over the next twelve months??
Four deep wells still in progress … the big prize but also been the most problematic.
I have high expectations for CASP in the very near future.
… all a waste of time posting on ii now of course
:face_with_monocle:


#37

fynne. Very positive RNS today, the workovers are working, good increases in production. Also a decent price being obtained for what is low quality crude from the shallows. CASP need the income to fund the drilling of the two 3A best wells which must commence soon or be in breach of licence terms.
Tempted to buy back in here. It will only take one deep well success.


#38

Long wait for news here. Sadly with CASPer no news is usually bad news. Good to see they are undertaking workovers of existing shallow wells to increase production and also drilling new shallow wells in tandem. Decent price now being achieved for most of the shallow production which is not very high quality crude. News awaited regarding spud date of the first 3A Best well and the outcome of attempts to make a deep well flow. Its all about the deeps here.


#39

Operations update out … two deep wells getting close to possible testing. With help from Baker Hughes things are looking more positive this time around. Gas and oil are still there so hoping they’ve got things right this time.
Also a new shallow well in the very near future to add to existing production… fingers still crossed!!


#40

If there is no ops update prior to Christmas confirming (or not) that a deep well is now on test then there is the chance this will be pumped and dumped over the holiday period. The same situation happened a few years ago the share rose very quickly in the few post Christmas trading days and then slumped as soon as the markets opened in the new year. So beware, you might think good news has leaked and jump in, but it might just be the dreaded pump and dump. Then again …