Permits?

lse:cnr

#1

Is the market finally sniffing out the fact that the permits are getting very close?

You can never tell but there isn’t much else to move it at the moment. The FD buying a few, announced yesterday, may well have helped.

ddd


#2

I think the level of free float for this stock is a major factor as in reality only £50k-£80k of stock is being traded daily in the market but we are seeing large price changes with a bid spread of around 7% so very large. Therefore even relatively small buys can move the share up and down and in light of new news little to do with fundamentals.

it is encouraging that a further director has bought a small amount if the open market to lend some confidence but it was a small purchase. obviously insiders have small windows to make investments and probably this was his ISA allowance being used up at the start of the financial year.

With the threat of ongoing issues in the Middle East and wider the POG has seen a general uptrend that is likely to continue as Russia are the 2nd largest gold miners in the world.

if Mark was right we should hear something before July and the AGM is conveniently on the 26th June so i am sure he would like nothing better than to come to the AGM and start talking about putting shovels in the ground rather than explaining his disastrous 3 years of wasted time trying to ride rough shod over local residents thinking the Nicaraguan government would sweep them aside. This to me is very troubling they even thought that was possible and to not have quickly consulted and found a way forward.

I still think the local community will be doubling down on efforts to stop Condor as they now face no compensation and still a big pit on their doorstep with just a 5m high wall and most of them connected to artisan miners means their livelihoods might be affected. Appreciate that many might well go and work for Condor so lets hope Mark is on the ground smoothing over the issues quickly and not jetting around the world doing his little presentations. i wonder how many weeks he actually spends in La India as i am not sure the management team are on the front line as much as they should be as this should have been done and dusted years ago.


#3

I’m more optimistic than you on a couple of points.

Firstly, I get the impression that the local community are far more enthisiastic about the situation than you might be thinking. The prospect of several hundred (relatively) well paid jobs is far more alluring than the inconvenience of having artificial landscaping imposed on them. My understanding is that the revised proposals sorted out most of the concerns that they had.

Secondly, my thinking is that (partly because of the above) the permits could be granted as early as this month (April). Admin is slow in central America but it looks like all parties are now supporting the move, which suggests that it is literally the speed of bureaucracy which is holding things up.

Agreed on the illiquidity of the share, which is why I think we will see a fairly robust and positive reaction when the permits do land. Anyone who doesn’t buy now will have a far more challenging time in a few weeks time, at least in buying at today’s levels. The FD may well have been using his ISA allowance but he’s also no doubt thinking that if he doesn’t go now he will be 1) precluded from buying due to inside trading regs (closed period) and 2) not much chance of buying in the 40s.

Fingers crossed on a decent revaluation when they finally comes through.

ddd


#4

Lets hope those permits are forthcoming and happy to go along with your forecast of this month but given the scale of the documentation they need to wade through i would be forgiving if they signed them off before July. I say July as otherwise nothing will happen until after September as everyone takes a long break.

I have not direct knowledge of the local community and just a personal view about what they were trying to leverage (normally compensation) but if many become employees on good wages and give up the compensation route then you might be correct but i dont have any specific information but i do positively note there is no re-run of the anti capitalist petitions at the moment so that does suggest fatigue on some sorts. Hopefully they will not be blockading the pits in the future.

If you have any information that Mark has been going door to door getting each of the objectors on side that would be nice to know or otherwise i will probably bump into him on the backstreets of Mayfair.


#5

Yesterday’s price move was obviously unrelated to Condor’s situation with respect to the permits. It clearly looked more like a knee-jerk and it many respects it’s not difficult to rationalise a move in th eopposite direction.

Think about it.

Assuming that the move was entirely based on perceptions of the Nicaraguan situation (i.e. not the fact the PoG slipped back last week), then I guess we have two camps.

Camp A

The sky is falling; It’s Venezuela mark II; The Nicaraguan government will be totally focused on allaying discontent in the country and won’t be interested in anything else.

Camp B

The sky is falling; It’s Venezuela mark II; The Nicaraguan government will be totally focused on allaying discontent in the country and will need to pull its finger out and do something.

Pension changes were the catalyst for the violence but the underlying cause is poverty, which of course is related to low GDP. At ‘people level’ this translates into a lack of well paid jobs. The government obviously wants to save money on running its social care system, pensions included, so it needs to promote industry. When you are in that situation do you:

  1. Yap Yap Yap but not actually delivery anything (the usual political response)?
  2. Do something. Like, for example, grant permits to miners across the country? In other words create a bit of positive PR about creating jobs.

In ‘normal’ times politicians prefer to yap but when there are riots on the street even they can’t get away with dithering. They must actually act.

My argument, therefore, is that this might actually expedite the granting of permits rather than add further delay. The Nicaraguan government desperately needs some positivity or I’ve no doubt it will fall sooner rather than later.

As for Condor, I’m sure that enquiries will be made over the next few days and we might even see an RNS. Whether it would say ‘no change to the situation’ or ‘permits are expected to be delayed another six months’ remains to be seen. I guess we will have to see.

As you no doubt have guessed I see this as a hold situation. It’s a frustrating distraction but I tend to think it will blow over in a week or two. We might yet see the permits come through by June.

ddd