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Petro Matad (MATD) - 6 fully funded wells to drill Q4 2018 to Q2 2019

lse:matd

#41

49% drop today! Do we give up on this one?


#42

2019 Drilling :

1/ Heron-1 due to spud early to mid July 2019 - 30 to 40 days to drill - Block 20

2/ Gazelle-1 due to spud late August 2019 - 25 to 35 days to drill - Block 20

3/ Red Deer 1 due to spud mid to late July 2019 - 25 to 35 days to drill- Block 20

4th well - To Be Decided Either in Block 5 (Raptors) or another in Block 20

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#43

I believe Heron COS is 75% and Red Deer COS was over 40%.

Red Deer is a basin opening play, if that comes in thats worth a load plus a lot more.

Heron 25 MMBO circa 18p a share
Red Deer-1 48 MMBO circa 32p a share (plus loads of follow on leads)
Gazelle 13 MMBO circa 8.5p a share

Drill 4…depending on where it is, if Block V then its a biggie, 200p a share potential, if its Block XX again then maybe another 20p to 30p a share size drill.

Both Heron and Red Deer one due to be at TD at the same time, mid August.


#44

Ticking up today … hoping this years drilling goes as planned and no surprises … other than oil (obviously).
Very frustrating in the last couple of years here.


#45

July! and two wells have been forecast to spud this month… news due very soon.


#46

when are the next news expected?


#47

RNS 26th June states
Heron 1 was on track to start drilling in July … expected drill time 35days (late August)
Red Deer 1 (2nd rig) also expected to spud before end of July … again 35 days forecast (early September)
Rig from Heron 1 moves to 3rd drill site Gazelle 1

News flow over the next two months will be interesting … noticed an increase in the sp last few days … fingers crossed


#48

Edison update for MATD.

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/PetroMatad-2019-Mongolia-drilling-campaign-kick-off.pdf

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#49

Spud Heron 1 RNS with around 40 days drilling.
… second rig to spud this month also.
Two chances of hitting oil should shift this share price upward at long last


#50

Just for a bit of fun and note that any mechanical failure at all will totally delay everything…

Based on other DQE drilling a rough schedule is averaging 130 meters per day (with no mechanical issues) over a well to TD.

Heron-1 is 3050 meters and so divided by 130m/d would give 24 days to get to TD, prior to initial wireline logging and then initial RNS at say day 30.

Red Deer-1 is 2106 meters and so divided by 130m/d would give 16 days to get to TD, prior to initial wireline logging and then initial RNS at say day 22.

Entering of the Primary Target at Heron-1 should be around 2800m onwards which would equate to day 22 of the drilling. Also secondary targets earlier.

Entering of the Primary Target at Red Deer-1 should be around 1650m onwards which would equate to day 13 of the drilling. Also secondary targets earlier.

Heron-1 spud was 19th July.

Volume spike time - anytime after 10th August. Results RNS after wireline anytime from 19th August.

Red Deer-1 spud ETD 29th July.

Volume spike time - anytime after 11th August. Results RNS after wireline anytime from 19th August.

So, from Monday 12th of August, if we get crazy volume spikes we will not know if its Heron or Red Deer or both.

Enjoy the ride.


#51

so from August 12, could it always be the right time to see the stock grow? I have no idea at what level I will be able to liquidate … unfortunately I am Italian and I cannot have much news. yours are the only ones, so thank you


#52

Share price moving up now. Maybe too early for Heron-1 news, however the Chinese said they could drill and log it in 19 days…however, I think they need quite a bit longer than that. My expectation is for them to be in the target zone around 12th August…but who knows.

Will Red Deer-1 spud this week as well ?

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#53

Will be interesting to see how Elixir get on with the CBM drill which will be soon as well.

Last day of July, will MATD be able to spud Red Deer-1 and have the 2 drills ongoing, or are they going to delay slightly to allow Heron-1 to complete about a week before Red Deer-1 completes…allow some breathing space ?


#54

Quicker than was expected…with Heron-1 resolution…off we go.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/heron---1-well-update/201908140734569950I/

Heron-1 and Red Deer-1 both drilling ahead…

50p a share of oil potential to be found :slight_smile:


#55

50p of upside if both wells strike.

Sub 2p if both fail.

18p if Heron strikes on its own.

32p if Red Deer strikes on its own.

I like the risk/reward ratio - no other stock on AIM offers that upside in the coming 5 weeks…


#56

I will put this here, as IF MATD do strike oil, some numpties will be along to tell you its worthless.

Actually, Mongolian oil is very valuable. The PSC terms are rather wonderful…the oil has very high value in real terms to the producing company.

Look at these PSC terms - keep this to repost later - compare these terms against some other countries terms, see how much the oil is worth in other places in real terms to the producing company, after tax and tax and tax is hit upon them.

Petroleum Sharing Contract (PSC)

Royalty: Block XX 5%

Low cost in comparison to other jurisdictions

Corporate tax: 0%

Speaks for itself, designed to encourage foreign investment

Cost recovery mechanism: Exploration, development and operations costs recoverable against oil production with annual cap of 40% of total gross revenue. The remainder is carried over. Transportation costs are recoverable

This really needs shouting about!! Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position. This is something quite special

Contractor Profit oil split: Block XX 45% to 60%

This highlights just how aligned the Mongolian government is with the success case. Implications are to enable a significant cash flow from production.


#57

My estimates now :

Red Deer-1 well will be into Secondary target during week commencing 19th August.

Red Deer-1 well will be into Primary target during week commencing 26th August.

Red Deer-1 well results and RNS week commencing 2nd Sept.

Heron-1 well into Primary target week commencing 9th Sept.

Heron-1 well results and RNS week commencing 16th Sept.

Gazelle-1 spud October.


#58

Heron-1 is 1KM away from T 19-46-3 well, same geology, no faults. If Heron-1 is not an oil strike and producer, I will eat my hat. Every dog has its day, Heron-1 is dead cert to strike oil. Worth pot. 18p a share to #MATD Red Deer-1 pot. worth circa 32p a share


#59

Heron-1 appears to be here on Google Maps. Recent satellite image.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/46°49’36.1"N+116°09’19.8"E/@46.826698,116.1533113,478m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d46.8266944!4d116.1555

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#60

Following todays update :

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/operational-update/201908200700115995J/

The new forecasts by me are :

Red Deer-1 well will be into Secondary target during week commencing 19th August.

Red Deer-1 well will be into Primary target during week commencing 26th August.

Red Deer-1 well results and RNS week commencing 2nd Sept.

Heron-1 well into Primary target week commencing 26th August.

Heron-1 well results and RNS week commencing 9th Sept.

Gazelle-1 spud early October

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