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Portfolio Positioning For Brexit Vote

lse:vod
lse:bta
lse:hsba
lse:lloy

#478

Devonplay arises from his slumber…welcome!

Frog


#479

Hi @PrefInvestor1

Not unlike my list. Here’s my take on it -

1, I’m considering buying more IUKD. I’m planning to start pound averaging it again, after April.

2, I have a holding of HSBA, at the moment Stan or BNC appeal to me more. I’m more tempted by BNC if I’m honest. The diversification appeals. Although Europe is likely to be a drag and the spat between Italy and France isn’t that comforting .

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-france-dispute-real-winner-europe/

3, I haven’t any holding in UKW, but I do like renewables. I hold debt in the sector, and a small play in EV’s and car sharing.

  1. I had a look through SWEF. I’ve got a couple things I’ve looked at in European real estate. My biggest property holding is via TR Property, bought back in the bad days, so it’s showing a nice profit, and has almost 60% of it’s assests outside of the UK. I suspect the yield might not be great enough for you ) It’s a good core holding in my opinion. I’ve held the Schrds. European Property fund in the past. I may have a more detailed look at that sector again when Europe starts to slow in a more aggresive way.

5, BRNA, Ive been buying NAIT on dips.

6, VIN. I hold both in my ISA and my partners ISA. I like the company and would buy it. I think I’ve noticed a bit of insider buying later. Anyway it’s on my live “buy list”.

7, SEQI Interesting company. I think I’ve mentioned before I like the debt sector. I’ve added SEQI to my watch list. I did buy some NCFY last month. I plan to pound averge that next year (tax year).

I’m going set up a regular purchase of IUKD, ISF and NCFY. I’ll be swapping out NCFY when I’ve got an average size holding and swap in another debt play. Those will take up around 40% of my dividend income. The remainder I’ll using to add to existing holdings. As chances allow.

I may swap out some of my p2p stuff and buy the Funding Circle SME fund. I want to keep some exposure to that sector.

There doesn’t look to be a lack of high yielding stocks around at the moment, diversification feels almost as important as it was back at the start of the decade.

The UK looks good if you’ve got the risk appetite, although good sense tells me balancing with non-UK assests might be the way to go. EM at all?

DL


#480

Hi Frog,

Still reading the MF I see !. I only have to see those words or their URL and I ignore whatever is being presented completely…

I guess in the next few days they will come out with their “i-think-its-time-to-SELL-the-ftse-100-as-brexit-reaches-its-???” blah, blah, blah.

But each to their own !!.

ATB

Pref


#481

Hi @devonplay,

Welcome back - if youve been away !!. Hope you are well.

Appreciate your thoughts as always. My comments on some of your inputs as follows:-

  1. STAN yield too low for me.
  2. BNC more like it on yield but looks to be in a downtrend and not keen on extent of its European debt exposure. Not for me.
  3. NAIT again yield too low for my taste. Did a comparison and share price performance looks very similar. I like the BRNA portfolio too.
  4. ISF not for me, I dont buy FTSE trackers - though admittedly some of my dividend ETFs DO track the index pretty closely. Yield too low anyway…
  5. Thought about buying some more NCYF when they were down at 56. Well over 57 now. BUT have had my holding for well over a year now and only just about breaking even. Dividends just about keeping pace with falling share price. So I decided not to go there ATM.

Each to their own though. Good luck with your picks.

ATB

Pref

PS Got a good chunk of EM as well AAIF, HFEL, JEMI, IAPD & SEDY to name a few off the top of my head. And HSBA of course.


#482

Hi @PrefInvestor1

I’ve not been coming to the site much really, it’s not offering me much in the way of utility these days. I spend more time on Lemon Fool. It’s much more pleasant. More grown up. You get a ban for name calling. That would put a stop to some round here!

I guessed the yield would be an issue with a few of my picks.

I’ve got reasons why I prefer them, not only investment reasons, but also portfolio strategy.

It’s funny. I don’t think people take enough time over that. Porfolio strategy. It might be a great company, investment, but how does it fit with the rest of your positions. You know what I mean.

I like EM, I feel it’s a good place to be at the moment, growth is hard to come by, but the overall global economy looks OK. Growth and good income are hard find, but you can still find them in EM.

DL


#483

Hi Again @devonplay,

It is certainly true that the standard of poster contributions on this site has declined notably since the introduction of the new discussion boards IMHO. There are now only very few posters here that I consider make any significant intellectual contribution regarding what investments to hold and why. I consider you to be one of those by the way !.

I am really not quite sure what has happened to the “atmosphere” here, but it has definitely changed. Previously the style was lots of short posts on boards organised by stock name, with the occasional discussion thread being formed. With the current system people rarely create new topics but just post at random in topics that already exist – which is ok if you are familiar with them but not otherwise. As posts are just displayed in the order that they are made the discussion thread theme has largely been lost. Much good has happened on a technical front. It is now easy to post graphics and quote bits of others posts and even to edit posts to remove errors (how badly did I want that on the old system !). And posts have gotten much longer with the new system, perhaps because it’s easier to create and edit them ?.

However somewhere/somehow the discussion element seems to have been lost, people have been turned off and left and the quality of the place for investment discussion has deteriorated IMHO. It’s quite sad really.

This week has been very quiet in terms of any posts on the boards which I frequent LLOY, HSBA and VOD in the main. Your contribution today has been a most welcome input, so thanks for that.

ATB

Pref


#484

If we get another Quarter of low inflation
Could potentially delay Interest Rate hikes
This helps boost Housing Market

  • Long term I am hoping
    We could then get Sterling and EURO 1:1
    Technically that will avert all Brexit concerns
    Both for EU and UK

Long way to go


#485

What a fantastic looking site. Cheers for the tip


#486

Hi @Old_Eyes

You’ll find it’s a good community. With active participation. Moderatation is active and the kind of negative name calling you see on here is dealt with very quickly.

Often very intelligent discussion on a range of investment topics.

Lots of experienced and mature investors.

I hope you enjoy it.

DL


#487

I’m a very amateur investor, and generally preferred the old format. Learned a lot from a variety of posters and managed to make a few quid from time to time (beer money, not Porsche money) and there was a lot of enjoyable gallows humour when people ballsed up. I’ll look at Lemon Fool later.

Even in the old format, some Brexit stuff you could loosely consider market/Lloyds related and I didn’t mind that.

I dip in and out of Brexit Wars, but it’s a bit like someone’s let off a firecracker in hen’s hatch half the time.


#488

@PrefInvestor1 Did you top up HSBA ?


#489

No I didn’t, I’m pleased to say…

Pref


#490

Great
If we can just work out where the money is going next as it leaves all financials - we could make that elusive "Smart " money - I am still on the hunt


#491

Hi Again @BrownAdder,

No in the end I bought the following:-

ITs - SEQI, BRNA, VIN & DNE
ETFs - IUKD & ZILK

Re HSBA from this article it looks like investment banking was the big problem area ?.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/hsbc-reports-full-year-profit-below-analyst-estimates

That wont read across to lloyds as they dont do investment banking as I recall. Found the following set of analyst estimates with a bit of googling.

https://quotes.wsj.com/UK/LLOY/research-ratings

From this FY2018 earning target looks to be £7.45Bn ?.

GLA lloyds holders tommorow. Hope luck isnt necessary…

ATB

Pref


#492

Its just me and Regardless who holds LLOY from what I have read, class of our own lol

I took LLOY as hugely safer compared to others (few reasons)
Bought 54.xx , should things go south, Auto Sell is in place.
Equally Auto sell past 60


#493

I think the mid year results for Lloyds were 3.1 billion, down from an estimation of 3.2 billion. If they can hit £7.45Bn I’ll be happy!


#494

Yes sadly that’s not how it works though is it. If £7.45Bn is the analysts expectation (that site implies this I think) and they don’t achieve it then that’s bad news and the SP drops…

Pref


#495

These days a near miss is positive - all very odd. Its just multimillionaires game at the moment.
Tomorrow Fed mins will throw another spin.

If anyone can make sense of it please let me know but no brexit talk please


#496

Hi @frog_in_a_tree,

You posted that you were interested in TRIG a while back. The following article just arrived in my email today which says that they are planning a capital raise and a placing/offer for new investors next month.

https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/renewable-infrastructure-rides-high-on-green-income-demand/a1202437?re=62361&ea=1146034&utm_source=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily

Suspect that this will probably have a negative impact on the price in the short term for current holders but provide an opportunity to get on board if you haven’t already.

ATB

Pref


#497

Good morning Pref,

I am going ahead with building a stake in TRIG. It seems to me that it should be pretty immune from Brexit damage and political risks are low. The cost of building renewables infrastructure is falling and demand for leccy will continue to grow as cars move away from ICE. The yield is pretty attractive too.

Thanks for posting the link.

Cheers,

Frog