Menu
Close

Post foil

lse:hur

#1

Anyone got ideas about what happens once the oil starts to fill AM’s tanks. Presumably, shuttle tanker(s) take the black gold away somewhere and then return for a refill. How is the oil transferred from the AM to the shuttle tanker(s) and might the weather be a serious limitation on the offtake rate (and hence the rate of

producFlon)


#2

Hi Floss,

Try this .

All the best.

HTL

[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxfOd3l1WFY)


#3

Thanks HTL, that answers my question perfectly. It would appear that offloading to a shuttle tanker equipped with dynamic positioning is a doddle (especially compared to the many challenges successfully already successfully

Flovercome)


#4

You have the FPSO bobbing up and down on the waves and the shuttle tanker doing the same.

The AM needs a six hour window to connect up. The Shuttle Tankers will need a 24 hour weather window every couple of weeks for the next ten years to offload


#5

Long live Stugeron


#6

Sooner them than me ! Do I recall correctly that the majority of the AM crew have been on previous jobs with this FPSO ? That encourages me, thinking of “old hands” familiar with heaving seas and the workings of the AM when under pressure…


#7

Decided to post this here instead -

Sharing a post from Steve 73 on Adfvn which goes into quite some detail about the likely processes taking place over the next 3 to 6 months re. Lancaster EPS.

"The 72 hour contractual “test-run” won’t (or is unlikely to) be a “start/run-for-72-hours/stop”. Operation.

Once all their tests on the wells and topsides (and I’m still expecting a “dummy” offload - i.e. position using DP & connect up to a shuttle tanker, but no actual transfer - to be part of this testing), and both wells are online at the design rates, they will simply declare that a stable 72 hour period has been achieved. They won’t necessarily shutdown production again at the end of it.

But then I’m not expecting them to keep running “forever” at that stage. They have already stated that the first 3 months of operation is expected to average 6.5 kbod, which is equivalent to one well operating 100% of the time at the minimum flowrate (to avoid low temperatures in the flowline), or 2 wells operating at design flowrate for just 32.5% of the time. Whatever they’re planning lies some where between those 2 extremes. For the next 3-6 months they’ve stated they intend to operate at 13.5 kbod average. These “reduced” rates are very unlikely to be due to any constraint imposed by either well performance or operational topsides issues, but a desire to gain information & understanding.

What follows is my understanding of what they’re hoping to achieve, and why. My background is not subsurface, although I’ve worked closely with enough different teams to understand some of their needs for evaluating reservoirs.
When you flow a well at any given rate, the bottom hole pressure or BHP (usually measured at the heel of a horizontal, rather than the toe) immediately drops. The difference between this and the reservoir pressure is the “drawdown” and is used to calculate the IPR (Inflow Production Rate). Shut off production and the BHP should very quickly balance out to the original reservoir pressure. The drawdown will normally exhibit a fairly linear relationship with production rate.

But with extended production over time the BHP will steadily drop as the immediate surrounding reservoir gives up its production, and the rate of this pressure drop depends on how much pressure support there is from the wider surrounding reservoir, or from a gas cap (which Lancaster does not have) or from an underlying aquifer (which HUR believes it does have). Shut in production at this stage and the BHP will take much longer to stabilize (since a wider area of reservoir was depleted), although eventually it should return to the original reservoir pressure. The longer you run and the more oil you produce, the longer it takes for the pressure to fully recover. These extended PBU test will give valuable information as to the wider reservoir characteristics, and more importantly the strength of the aquifer support (which may determine if supplementary water injection is necessary for the FFD’s).

The other test’s I envisage them doing during these first 3-6 months are interference tests between the 2 wells. By flowing one well only and observing how the BHP of the off-line well (which is effectively the reservoir pressure at that distant location) they can further build up the picture of how the wider reservoir is reacting… And then when the producing well is shut off, the BHP recovery from the offline well gives yet more data.

All this data will allow them to fine-tune their computer Reservoir simulation models. If they can match their model to the way the real thing performs over a 6-12 month period, they can be much more confident that it will provide more accurate predictions over the much longer timeframe, and hopefully for their wider FB acreage.

Being “allowed” to run these rate reducing data-gathering tests, rather than having to operate at maximum rate (in order to pay off debts and/or shareholders) is a VERY RARE luxury for a production field. A clear reason why this is called an EPS rather than a First Phase development. This is the benefit of having the geologist Dr. T firmly in the driving seat.

The value of information (which is often somewhat difficult to accurately quantify) is clearly regarded as being higher than the value of the additional oil (which can be very accurately calculated)…

Sorry to have “gone on” a bit, but hopefully it will have answered many others’ questions of "why can’t we increase the rate sooner?

Of course, it’s all JMHO."


#8

Thanks Albi1,

I sometimes read the ADVFN board as a counterbalance and find that Steve 73 always has valuable input. He has explained so clearly what is (to me) a complicated means of assessing the reservoirs and of course, the manner in which Hurricane intend to “prove up” the 2C to 2P.

We live in interesting times and I am very much looking forward to attending the AGM in London. Hopefully some from this friendly board will also be present !

I am also thinking of those of us who are not able to enjoy this period of excitement and “proving up” of Hurricane’s fortunes… I think of Aquarian whose husband has passed on, and am sorry that Happy to Learn is also not posting here on this board. We share this coming good fortune with you in spirit,

Best wishes to all,

Millais


#9

Hi Millais

Yes Steve73 has written many very helpful posts over the last year. While it took me a while to digest his post it has left me feeling much clearer about next milestones.

Very much echo your words re. Aquarian and HtL.

Hope to make it to the AGM if possible, a few things happening in parallel at that time so will be a bit of a last minute decision. Must get a letter of representation from my broker or failing that will just print out my portfolio. We may see each other, perhaps we need an ii board dress code - red carnation anyone?


#10

Hi Albi1,

Recognition at AGM - Red carnation a good idea :smile: In absence of flower sellers nearby I shall probably have a pale blue rucksack on my back - sounds crazy but seeing the esteemed Dr T on stage will be a bit like a favourite rockstar from my teenage years - adulation abounding :joy:

Here’s looking forward to further sp rises next week,

Millais


#11

So it is then, will let you know bag colour of choice if I can make it.:sunglasses:

Definitely one of the main reasons I’d like to go is to see and hear Dr T directly. Hoping for some good questions and answers!


#12

e.g. Dear Dr T, as a long term shareholder, I am interested to know if you are currently planning to use the funds generated by Lancaster to drill Warwick and the other prospects as this will presumably mean that there will be no money available to pay out as dividends until such time as you have completed the exploration of your various licenses. i.e. despite the success of Lancaster it could be years before we investors see a return on our investment and even that distant reward assumes that you do not go on and on until the cash is totally used up by a run of dry

Floles


#13

Hi,
As well as print out of portfolio I have been told photo id and no voting or asking questions :neutral_face:

Andy


#14

Well that’s decided, my share certs coming with me !


#15

Hi Andy

Yes, told the same. You need a letter of representation from your broker to vote.

** Actually update on that, emailed Charles Stanley today and they advised they will make arrangements to have my name added to the register at the AGM - no mention of a letter as such just that they had to notify Hurricane directly on my behalf to make sure my name was on their register of shareholders.***


#16

Hi Albi1
Yes and if not to vote nor ask questions they said screen shot of portfolio and photo ID.

Andy


#17

Anyone following LSE?

The hints about WD are certainly cryptic but I’m not getting a good feeling about they have found.


#18

Oh dear, the cat could be out of the bag. Never seen so many perfect storms predicted for a share. Well my prediction is brace your selves for the storm you don’t want. Sub 40p soon. Sell out 70 - 80p.

All above IMHO


#19

Anyone familiar with Alice in Wonderland?
"I tell you what, here’s something to amuse you. Do you remember the Mad Hatter’s tea-party in Alice in Wonderland, and the story the Dormouse started telling about the sisters who lived in a treacle-well? Try a google search about it. The thing is, Hurricane aren’t drilling in Binsey, a tiny village now essentially enclosed (though still in ‘countryside’) by the city-limits of the place I was born. And there’s no Fractured Basement there, or not to my knowledge, at least. And also (though I haven’t ried the experiment), I doubt that even if you boiled treacle, you could get a flare like the one on the Aoka Mizu.

Nah, that’s enough information from me. DYOR. But Dr Trice isn’t a Mad Hatter."

“The next chapter is ‘The Queen’s Croquet-Ground’.”


#20

No idea, but the poster did state this, for what it’s worth; “However if he re-reads that chapter closely, he’ll note that it also represents the last chance for a tree-shake…”.

If I’ve interpreted that correctly, does that not indicate they expect the SP to rise on good news? But as you said, all very cryptic and could mean something, could mean nothing (good or bad).

P.s. Armageddon is quiet this morning, perhaps that’s a good sign :slight_smile: