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lse:hur

#369

I am usually just an observer on this site (Thanks for all the great discussions!), however I’ve just come across some info on Hurricane that I find quite disturbing so thought it was worth sharing.

When an asset goes into development the most important person to guide the strategic thinking is the reservoir engineer, in terms of planning for the optimal drive mechanism and therefore executing well placement that has the most commercial impact while minimising cost and risk. Hurricane’s Reservoir Engineering manager is a guy called Dan Bonter who is a Paleontologist by education and his previous role appears to have been in the geoscience department at RPS, so no experience as a reservoir engineer in an operator on a development. The Geoscience lead, Clare Slightam, also appears to have no more than a year of development experience in an operator but at least she is trained in the subject and is backed up by Robert Trice.

Realizing that the lead subsurface personnel in the company have no experience of developing a reservoir, then some of the poor historical decisions make sense. Two in particular:

  1. On Lancaster they claim to have two producing horizontal wells - it is true they have two wells drilled and tied in but they drilled them so close together that in terms of extracting from the reservoir they are essentially the same well. This means that if one pulls water from the aquifer through a highly connected fracture then it will almost immediately be drawn in to the other well. Therefore, the second well (-7z) hasn’t really added to reserves but has increased the risk to the production. When this well was drilled the reservoir engineer, Dan Bonter, would have known they were in a highly connected fracture system so to place that well there when it adds nothing, in fact is detrimental, and at a cost I understand to be near $60M when the company was strapped for cash, highlights the complete lack of experience and understanding of reservoir behaviour & risk.

  2. In the current GWA appraisal campaign the wells are planned as future development wells though it is clear there has been no future planning of what that development would be. The wellheads of the three wells could not be further apart which means any future development will be unnecessarily costly. The wells are spudded on the edge of the reservoir with vertical trajectories through the overburden, I get that the wells are drilled vertically to reduce cost but spudding them centrally in the reservoir with even a small inclination in each would bring them significantly closer together at minimal cost, saving potentially tens of millions in the future. To not have even considered this shows a complete lack of commercial understanding and foresight (brings into question Spirit’s due process as well).

Even though the assets are likely good these kinds of mistakes that lead to massive overspends will lead to constant requirement for more financing, effecting share price (like 2017) and potentially sinking the company.

When they were an exploration company, having a useless Reservoir Engineer they could maybe get away with but now to have him as lead with no oversight while developing a producing asset is unacceptable. For the senior leadership to allow this is a big red flag.

They have to bring in a more experienced reservoir engineer otherwise I’m out after this campaign.

Cheers


#370

“They have to bring in a more experienced reservoir engineer otherwise I’m out after this campaign.”

That makes no sense at all. Either you trust that the company has the ability to produce the goods, or you don’t. And if as you claim, the person who you’re attacking and can’t defend themselves here is a liability, you’re then saying that you’re going to remove your investment pending the outcome of a drill.

So which is it? Are you genuinely unwilling to invest in the company because you believe one person in it isn’t qualified to do his job? Or are you gambling on the outcome of the LC drill?
Because the proposed timing of your dis-investment bears no relation to your stated reason for dis-investing. If anything, it shows that your statement about his ability is just idle libel, if you need the outcome of the drill to confirm it for you.


#371

I think you are being a little pessimistic.

The two Lancaster wells “working as one” is not strictly correct. The high connectivity between the wells is clearly good news that could not have been anticipated when they were drilled, rather then an error of positioning.

Lincoln and Warwick are at the exploration and appraisal stage, so drilling wells need to be undertaken at large distances from one another to gain the most information on the field. The wells are to be suspended as future produces, while they may not be in the optimal positions it is clearly cost effective to use them as such.

Development must follow exploration and appraisal not the other way around.

I cannot see this approach as being any kind of “red flag”. As to running out of money the present EPS looks good to finance the next stage of development on Lancaster and 50% of the GWA, as can be seen from Hurricane’s presentations.


#372

If this is a real genuine concern, then the heads up is very appreciated,

However, how many of these helpful hints are usually provided, just before proper positive news and a subsequent share increase.


#373

mikedean1301 has recently appeared on the adv bb with same or similar posts. I have filtered him on that site after his comments were largely discredited and questions raised about his motives. Beware.


#374

Your post suggests considerable experience in this field (and it is always good to find an expert who considers it worth investingin HUR) but in this case, although interested (and possibly even invested), you are critical of the way things are being done.

In order to assess the weight we should give your remarks, would you like to give us a summary of your relevant experience and whether `Mike Dean’ is in fact your name (that would enable others on this board with industry experience to corroborate your history and perhaps even back up your remarks).

Sorry to sound a little sceptical but these days we are all watching for the various scams that try to trap us and posting bad news before buying in is one way that people could use to get a `bargain’ if sufficiently

unscrupuFlous


#375

Hi Folks, when do we expect to hear an official statement on production figures??

Anyone think with good news the share price will change much?

Or are we stuck here for the meantime???

Cheers


#376

Would you believe it? There is another shuttle tanker about to offload at the Aoka Mizu, the Stena Natalita is about to hook up. The AM holds 600,000 barrels of oil, so it must have been nearing full capacity on Saturday. HUR could be producing around 17500 bpd already!


#377

Lots of heated debate on other bb about the nature of this offload or exercise. Having read most of the relevant posts I will go for this, the Stena Natlita is a tanker with specialist equipment for handling Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) which build up during normal operations and offloads. So my guess is that this is a “clean up” operation to remove the remaining oil and VOCs . And probably doing pigging cleaning of the well flow pipes at the same time?


#378

I bet the AM crew have done away with movie night and just read the bulletin board posts for entertainment.


#379

Must have been a reccy as after a couple of hours Stena Natalita headed for Glen Lyon , the FPSO on the Schiehallion field.


#380

lameduck, Yes guess so. Perhaps just a practice hook up on the way to Glen Lyon. Good to see the share price jump to nearly 44p at the close. Good news soon I hope.


#381

The chat has been quiet for a few days… Anyone with anything interesting to share???


#382

Sh…we do’t want to upset the SP

trajecFlory


#383

Well, I was at a small, quiet village fete yesterday.

I had only been there a few minutes when a man started hitting a woman!
Next thing a policeman turns up and starts hitting the man with his truncheon :astonished:
Last time I watch a Punch and Judy show.


#384

This upward trajectory as Floss put it is indeed quite settling… I still belive in this company and its assets. Let’s hope it carries on up!!!


#385

I love traditional Punch and Judy, probably because it is so `politically

inFlorrect’


#386

Anything non-PC is ok in my book.


#387

Looking at Hurricane’s guidance we have produced 4 months oil in 3 months. Does this translate into 4 months of de-risking Lancaster?

Will the production continue to be ramped up to say 20,000 barrels per day giving us a further off load about the 10 Sept?


#388

Been thinking about the RNS today. This is my take: The company is very sorry it has been unable to properly test the Lancaster wells as per previous guidance, we have been unable to produce the expected 9600 barrels per day from June to end of August because we have a flowline problem, and we have only been able to use one flowline. As a result we cannot say whether Lancaster field will be long term commercially viable. In the meantime we have had to produce on average 14, 400 barrels per day from 6th June to 17th August, we apologise for producing 1.2 million barrels instead of the intended 740,000 barrels. end
So HUR expected $60m operational cash flow by end of 2019 but by 17th August HUR have generated $70m op cash flow! They must have been (on occasions because of shutdowns) producing around 20,000 bpd along one flowline from two wells! From 17th Aug to 31st December, we have 6 weeks at 9600 bpd and 90 days at over 13000 bpd, average 11,000 bpd, say 1.4m barrels at $60 giving around $84 million. H1 end $81 m cash, including $22m from first cargo, so $132 m operating cashflow generated H2 2019. HUR commitments ongoing and 2020, debottlenecking and GWA tie back and gas tie back $47m . 3x GWA wells 2020 $95 m total $142 m. So HUR will easily be able to cover existing commitments in 2020 and I would suggest have plenty of cash to undertake further drilling on GLA in 2020.
I think Dr T is taking the mickey out of the market and the industry here.