Post foil




If you ask me Hurricane are being extremely negative on their guidance figures. A kind of; what if the oil price fell to $15, or we had three months of problems with the FPSO and so on.

I have heard a lot of criticism of Dr T, as he did not wish to quote the CPR parrot fashion for the benefit of some analyst, wet behind the ears at the CMD. He is the CEO and founder of the company, a millionaire in his own right, not a performing seal. How he did not bitch slap this “analyst” out of the auditorium is completely beyond me.

in is own right not a performing seal


As someone who had an allotment for many years I can confirm that larger stones do, indeed, rise to the surface.


That may well be true in a garden but unless the soil consists of fractured granite the observation is irrelevant. I missed the original claim which I presume was that large fissures could be blocked by an accumulation of fine material.

I would hazard a guess that you only get fine soil-like material from the long term actions of water, or ice i.e. weathering. Tectonics produces some shattering but hardly even down to road grit size in granite. In general, the greater amount of shattering, the higher the



I would have thought that any mechanism to cause fractures to silt up would necessarily involve flow of some type of fluid through the fractures to transport and deposit the sediment. Whilst you might get some smallish particles resulting from the original fracturing, it is counterintuitive to suggest that fractures would silt up (or block up, as the sediment might not be silt-sized) without some external mechanism to get the particles into position. I’m speaking here as a civil engineer with limited knowledge of oil-related geological processes.



There is a good post on LSE by “hoofhearted2” who has been spot on in the past.

He is predicting a 500k off load in just over a week.

Looks like production could be above guidance.


Hi Ash

Just back from Northumberland, Greenhaugh (or Greenoff as I now know to pronounce it). Blown away by the beauty of the Kielder area. Don’t think I’ve seen so much wildlife in Britain - dragonflies, lapwings, swallows, no end of bird watching up there, not to mention weasels, hares, squirrels and deer. Escaped with only 3 very small midge bites, exceptionally lucky given the bites some of the locals got this weekend!

Great cycling country if somewhat crazy driving on one track roads.

Going to give things a break on here for a while as have found the last few months fairly stressful with the constant ups and downs and feel the best thing to do is stop reading at this point and return when the data gets published.

Wishing you, Floss, Lawven, Millais, Carliol, Johnnie-FP, Wessexmario, Bobsson and all those who have made this board a friendly and interesting place of exchange a good summer and see you around October / November. Fingers crossed for the next two drills.

ps. Left Newcastle this morning with a walk down by the quayside and got some good snaps from the Millennium Bridge.


Very pleased you enjoyed your trip and worthy of many more as there is a huge number of places to visit.


Buying 5%


CMD attendee?


Good Morning Everyone,

It’s interesting to see someone’s bought 106 million shares in Hurricane which represent 5.37% of the company.

Perhaps there’s stake building going on with a view to making a bid. For every buyer there is a seller, so I wonder who sold such a large tranche of shares

Also there could be more buyers resulting from the CMD but they are keeping their holding below 3%. Perhaps, the reason for the drop in the share price since the CMD are the transactions to secure the 106 million shares. I wonder what today’s trading has in store for us?



They may have had shares for years but only just passed the 5% level at which they have to announce their holding. e.g. buying just 0.4% would do it, taking them from 4.97% to 5.37%.
Even so, it is still an investment of several million pounds, so not to be sneezed



Wishing you, Floss, Lawven, Millais, Carliol, Johnnie-FP, Wessexmario, Bobsson and all those who have made this board a friendly and interesting place of exchange a good summer and see you around October / November. Fingers crossed for the next two drills.

Thank you, Albi1. Your kind reference to me, et al, has made me change my mind about not posting but only quietly observing. I know it is no big deal to anyone here, but I justified my change of heart on the very high regard in which I hold you (and some others - they know who they are) and the posts, hereon - though I was just a little surpised over your rather longer than I expected, engagement with the 'great one, Amag - or whatever other name he/she may use at the time. He/She has some apparently very good insights; although like the proverbial cow - I am NOT calling him/her by that name! - whch gives the bucket of milk, immediately kicks the churn upside down… This by his/her uncouth and sometimes unnecessarily personal and distasteful response. Though to be fair, we are not always guiltless in our own response. Mea culpa, sometimes!

I am still heavily invested in HUR, but have taken quite a bit of risk - and a little profit - off the table, by watching the s/p movement as I recommended, and now I worry much less obout the incongruities of the SP movement/direction vis-a-vis my calculation of the inherrent value of each share. e.g. HUR reputedly sold 350,000 bbo for circa USD$22 million and from reports are about to sell 500,000 bbo for circa USD$31 million (@62.5 est. spot). WOW to Cash Flow!! And yet the stock price is stagnant or trending downwards. Nothwithstanding the upcoming Brexit; the geographical, policical and legal ‘convenience, security and stability’ of the UKCS should predicate a much higher s/p value. Yet the naysayers seem to be winning. If they are making money, why then, good luck to them!. On the other side, unless i am mistaken, I note that the Alken Capital Fund FCP-FIS has taken a 5.37% voting rights interest in HUR. (Vide: Notification of Major Holdings - HUR).

My attention is now heavily focussed on a stock which I spotted earlier this year and first participated in at circa 15p and is now at over 47p. (Going up too fast?) Like HUR I have great expectations for it. i had mentioned it before on this Forum but will not do so now as i have no intention to ramp, or to be accused of so doing. I have absolutely no interest - except for camaraderie - what stocks one buys, sells, shorts or ‘longs’. Good luck on whatever you do.

Enjoy your little break from the BBs, Albi1. Please stay healthy & happy - I have my age challenges, but coping very well and happily. And we shall see or ‘read’ you when you get back. Take care, Fair Lady.
Very kind regards, All. - LLV


What you are saying is accurate apart from the level to report at is 3% and every percentage after that.

They must have purchased at least 2.4% or about 45m shares.


Have to say thank you for your gallant post Lawven.

Like you I have broadened my horizons share wise and rebalanced accordingly but remain positive on Hurricane. However it is clear we’re unlikely to move until all the relevant data is on the table. Until then I’m holding and forgetting.

I very much hope we’re all here in October/November as feel that’s when things will start to shift.

Thanks for your company along the journey and wishing you good fortune in your investing choices.




I deleted the post as I saw no benefit in replying to you. Move on.



Just been doing some quick sums regards the latest two RNS announcements regards, Kerogen Investments No.18 Limited
If im correct then…
Kerogen Investments No.18 Limited, have sold c110m shares for around £51 million.
By my calculations on shares only this leaves them not far off a free roll on what they have left. As most of their holding was acquired @ 15p. Their entire holding could not have cost much more then this perhaps £64m max.


Hello Floss,

I’ve been having a close look at the two transactions whereby significant Investors bought and sold large tranches of Hurricane shares.

Yesterday The Alken Fund increased their stake in Hurricane to 5.37% of the shares in issue. This represents 106 million shares. On the MSN link it shows Alken as existing shareholders with 12 million shares.

The following is a copy and paste of Institutional Investors in Hurricane. You will note that Alken doesn’t feature on the list.

Today we were notified that Kerogen had reduced their share holding with the sale of 110 million shares.

The following is a list of II which includes Kerogen and Alfen, and is before today’s sale.

Given the similarity in the volume of shares bought and sold by Alfen and Kerogen, do you think the two investors have worked together to construct the deals or are the similarities simply co-incidental?

As I write this post I’m reminded that for every seller there is a buyer and for every buyer someone has sold. Or as one door closes another opens.

Best wishes from a wet and humid Cumbria.



Hello Albi !,

I’m disappointed you are taking a sabatical from posting on Hurricane simply because I enjoy reading your posts and your informed dialogue on investments and Hurricane.

Pleased you enjoyed your visit to our neighbours in Northumberland and that you were overwhelmed with the beauty of Keilder and the surrounding area. However, when you are next in the region, spare a thought for Cumbria and give us a visit.

I’m off to the sunny south tomorrow to Sevenoaks to visit our daughter and her husband and our recently arrived grand daughter.

Hope you will look in on this board from time to time. Given what’s happened with Hurricane over the last few weeks, this share can hardly be called boring. However, let’s hope the next news flow from Hurricane is remembered for all the right reasons.

Best wishes from a wet and humid Cumbria.



Sorry but this is way beyond my pay grade; however, the following thought does creep in:

The objective of both funds is to protect and preferably enhance their investments and as a buy/sell contract is a zero sum transaction, they can’t both win. So I think `working together’ is unlikely when Occam would suggest the simpler explanation which is that as in almost all such contracts, the two sides have a different balance of needs/views/expectations etc and the contract enables each to pursue their own objectives.

That said, every buy/sell contract involves `working together’ in the sense that they reach an agreement but I would not expect their to be anything other than the usual