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lse:hur

#21

As I stated last year on another Thread I’m very new to this game.
I have been watching quietly in the background, mainly because I have no experience in investing in Shares and am obviously quite naive in the workings of the Market.
Looking at some of Armageddon’s Posts I must admit to feeling a bit nervous.
Rightly or wrongly I have placed a Stop Order on my holding at my purchase price. Hopefully it won’t drop that far.
I am still planning to be invested in Hurricane for the long term but must admit getting a bit depressed with the swinging of the Share Price almost everyday.
Is this mostly down to MM’s playing the Market?
On another more serious note HtL was one of the first members of this BB to welcome me and I hope whatever is stopping him from posting is a temporary glitch and wish him well.


#22

Ash and really more to Soapy

I interpreted Adoubleuk’s post on LSE - viz the Alice in Wonderland references, as cryptically positive actually because in Alice in Wonderland the dormouse talked nonsense and caused confusion. The reference to the treacle well in Binsey - it’s not a treacle well, it’s said to contain holy water and have been blessed since the time of Katherine of Aragon and to have healing properties. It’s a bit of a distraction but the point being, focus on the facts in front of you I would say.

Am just reading ‘The Art of Execution’ by Lee Freeman-Shor. I highly recommend it. Key takeaway, most investors lose money by selling good shares too early (equally one can say holding onto bad shares for too long - but if they’re bad why did you invest in the first place?).

Patience is the name of the game here. Armageddon is making lots of money out of other people’s nerves, the wobbly market in general re. US/China, oil surplus etc. None of this has anything to do with the fundamental value. There are rumours of delays of a few weeks on WD but nothing cost sensitive that I am aware of, just par for the course dealing with fractured basement.

If you’re overextended, as I was, sell a few now (provided it leaves you with a modest profit otherwise don’t) if you must or hold till Capital Markets Day on 11 July. If you are not overextended then hold, as the SP will be in a very different place at the end of this year and now is really not the time to get spooked.

Very likely by this time next year or end of 2020 we’ll have been taken over once fields are proved up for FFD. I’d hope to see a SP of circa £2 by then. If you bought low, (anything under 60p) in my opinion, then hold.
All in my opinion. Do your own research. But don’t let the bears spook you, that’s how they make their money!


#23

Thanks Albi for the informed reassuring reply. I’m not in over my head but have semi retired since I invested a reasonable amount of my savings in Hurricane so it has focussed my attention a bit more.
I have no need to sell yet and I bought my holding in the low 40’s so am showing a nice profit at the moment.
I still plan to hold until all the pieces of the jigsaw come together.
Thanks again.


#24

One thing mentioned was 1 of the 2 men in the know (Wellwell being the main one this time) said he had a hard decision to make which I, based on nothing at all, took to mean sell up or hold on.
There also seemed to be another cryptic message that maybe, possibly, hinted that WD wasn’t even a fractured basement.
I’ve known may people lose big money, me included (eg Chariot) when the seismics weren’t even close, even when the chance of success was put down as upper 70%.


#25

From Missdosh on LSE just now:

“Later today we will update our valuation for Hurricane Energy. Crystal Amber is the third largest shareholder. As the oil continues to flow, unless the stock market recognises this vast resource, an oil major will #hur


#26

The Warwick Deep well is the most risky well HUR have ever drilled. Every other drill was a nailed on cert that we’d discover oil because the oil had already been discovered by previous drills from other oilies.

The risk on WD is they’re drilling outside of structural closure for the first time, if they find oil outside of structural closure and importantly it flows to surface then things are good. WD is by no means and never was a cert.


#27

Ash

If that were the case I think the SP would have plummeted by now! How about we see what Capital Markets Day brings - more data on the Lancaster EPS and I’m sure news on Warwick. Anything other is just rumour and innuendo - for my part I don’t think Adoubleuk would have referenced the flare again if it was bad news!


#28

CA’s valuation doesn’t mean much until it’s flowed for at least six months, that I believe is our largest risk though I do believe they’ve mitigated this as much as possible by not sucking the straw too hard and tapping the well hugely above OWC.


#29

Yes, patience is a virtue.
I’ve been all over Amazon and eBay but can’t seem to buy any.


#30

Oh dear, do you feel better now. Sorry for the delay been busy making a bit of money here. Speak again sub 40p. Sooner than you think!! Still in HUR quite heavily but booking profits fast now.

All above IMHO, good luck to all invetors


#31

Update which summarises recent cryptic discussions on LSE quite nicely I think. Hold tight.

From poster Hoofhearted this morning:

"- OK to put it very simply - in my opinion it is decision time. Take your seats at the table, or throw in your hand, cash in your remaining chips and walk away. After many year of being invested here, the fun is finally about to begin.

  • Both wells are reported to have produced better than we could have ever imagined, IMO 7Z will have every major OC taking note. This could blow the doors off when initial flow rates are released by RNS on the 11th.

  • I understand that a DST will be attempted on 26b-c, but not this week (22/6 onwards) “all issues have now been resolved and we are back on track”, looking good.

  • The FPSO tanks are filling up nicely, very nicely and will need to be emptied soon to make way for more production, or wells choked back. Watch this space!!! – WE ARE TALKING IN DAYS, rather than weeks or months before an offload is required. The age-old adage about not wanting to be away over the W.E could could not be more pertinent, particularly the pesky tanker-watchers.

  • The usual caveats about DoingYOR apply. IMO those that keep a cool head, a warm heart and a empty stomach will be very well rewarded.

  • Enjoy the weekend"


#32

Note that 7Z refers to the Lancaster EPS … good news. Also note good to read RNS re. October 2016 on flow rates from Lancaster - evidently current flow rates are looking even better.

Don’t base any investment decisions on either of these posts from LSE but bear in mind that by the end of this month we should hear more and CMD (Capital Markets Day) only a month away.


#33

News on WD will be the big one. Fingers crossed and it would be nice to get hints beforehand that aren’t like crossword puzzles.


#34

I like to think of WD as icing we didn’t know we had. The big one is the EPS continuing to flow at decent levels over an extended period of time.


#35

From a seemingly reliable poster on LSE:

““TD was reached yesterday, flaring should start Wednesday midnight for four days ending Sunday evening. All on schedule imo””


#36

Ash, yes, that’s Diego on LSE, he was spot on re. Lancaster flare.


#37

I imagine flaring implies they have found oil.


#38

From YuYus on LSE

They’ve got to TD , after a slight Glitch ( more than one reason for sidetrack , gathering trends , data etc ,

They are carrying out DST ,that to my knowledge is all we ‘ know’ perhaps some know more about it .

Think some are massively overthinking and playing to a baying audience!

No need to panic , from what they’ve found out so far they have decided to carry out a time consuming and costly operation !

No one knows the results from it !

It hasn’t been done , this well has opened up a few more questions , neither good nor bad !

Looks like, yet again, the seismics weren’t entirely honest.


#39

Isn’t that the way though, every answer throws up two questions…and repeat.

It’s worth reiterating that this is HUR’s riskiest drill to date by far, they may well find oil but finding it (and flowing it) from below structural closure was the exercise.


#40

Oh come on, it (the well) has been done (drilled successfully), that is a major task completed. Obviously there is a now an evaluation stage required which might well take days rather than hours. After that, they may decide to do further (horizontal?) drilling before running an EPS as per Lancaster.

I don’t know how you can say `Looks like, yet again, the seismics weren’t entirely honest.’ It is an incredibly difficult task to send sound waves down through multiple strata and seperate out the particular faint echo from the target layer amidst all the jumble of noise from all the other discontinuities which make up the earth’s crust. Having done that, you then have to marry up the several other traces to produce the 3D seismic picture.

Not quite as simple as an iphone

`selFloie’