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Quiet on here

lse:pmo

#1

Zama news over the next couple of weeks might spark a little bit of interest, although I doubt it’ll do much for the share price. The inventory builds in the U.S. and Trump taking on the world has certainly put a damper on a summer oil price rally, well for now at least. Worryingly, there’s also some horrible PMI data out there which could have a material impact on oil demand growth.

Hopefully the final Zama appraisal well come in as expected and Premier put a big fat ‘For Sale’ sign up on the asset. Obviously we wouldn’t want to sell it cheap and I’m not going to pretend to know what we might get for it, but $400m+ would be a massive help in deleveraging the balance sheet, particularly when you look at our debt profile. Investor relations have confirmed that following payback of the ‘super senior debt’ we should be in a position to start paying back the expensive senior notes come the start of next year, so given that’s around $500m with average interest cost of 9%, a Zama sale and a good Q1 2020 might be able to wipe out the full lot, which would give us a massive saving each year in terms of finance costs, especially when added to savings of the $300m of debt we’ll pay down this year. I’m sure the board are looking at all the options, but should Sea-Lion be giving the green light this is definitely my preferred option.

Any thoughts?


#2

What do the large and medium sized funds think? That’s what matters


#3

Short interest went from 15% to 0% early 2018. This was somewhat reflected in price.

From around mid 2018 to present day it’s increased from 0% to over 3%. This has also been reflected in price.

On a scale of both periods… reckon the bears have it right? 're price movement to short interest in both periods?

Maybe if you look at short interest in a few from the sector, is it reflecting crude outlook?

The scale of price movement on the 3% SI is concerning as it’s far more weighty than the 15% bullish reduction caused

But that’s just basic stuff. I’ve no idea about its fundamentals. Not looked . Didn’t feel a need to


Hurricane's Future Prospects?
#4

Gosh you’re right, and there was me thinking what a wrote on a stock forum would influence the company in some way :roll_eyes:

Also, if you haven’t looked at the fundamentals, then maybe it’s best not to comment on a thread that’s talking about them.


#5

Unfortunately it’s fundamentals that mislead most. Example buyers here at 102-108p in recent past etc. An obvious short


#6

Fundamentals. Here is the funny bit. Most people class past technical data as a bit meaningless. Yet all known fundamentals are past data too. Anything known is past.

So, technical or fundamental, we try to gleen future prices from past data. But here is the problem

Funds are trading future fundamental speculation. The unknowns to us. Maybe better to speculate their speculation?


#7

Il simplify it . A company 6 months ago release great financials. Great ratios. Cashlfows. Etc. Looks good.

But today, some fund with more info than us decides, ’ this next financial release wont look so rosy’. And as ever in SP, when money talks, books walk.

So price starts tanking down 25% over five months, and most of the public cant understand why…and start averaging down based on previous good financials. Not even close to the info the funds are trading. Then comes the news. Profit warning haha

That’s maybe simplifying it too much but you get the gist.

As for Fundamentals, they do have some info worth knowing. Not much but some. Maybe you should ask yourself why a trader here hasn’t looked at the PMO books? Maybe the related markets told me enough? And company books can’t halt that


#8

To be quiet honest, I couldn’t care less what you do and don’t look at. If you don’t want to engage on the points covered on the thread then don’t bother commenting. If you want to talk technicals, or whatever you use as your investment strategy, then start another thread.


#9

I am talking about your your points made. Very clearly in fact. Its all worthless data today. Not worth discussing


#10

Who would buy future debt ridden dog well? Has no value today as funds expect crude decline (imo) so any sale price today only future debt to the buyer


#11

Very clearly?! Lol, I haven’t got a clue what you’re on about.


#12

Fair enough lol


#13

Maybe you should. Ouch


#14

Why? Because the price is down? Some people have a longer term view, which to be fair, is looking fairly shaky as well at the minute.


#15

I’m short this longer than most investors are holding it. And will be another 2 years minimum. Not every short has to be financed nightly. You can long/short quarterly and yearlies. One off fee


#16

Yes but what if those people with a longer view, are funds borrowing stocks to short etc? How long were they on Carillion? A lot longer than most bulls


#17

Entirely possible, I have no problem people being short the stock I’m long on. In my view the world is still heavily reliant on oil and when shale growth disappoints, which I think it will in H2 this year, then the oil sector will finally have something to cheer about. Might be wrong, but we’ll see.


#18

Key moment for bears and bulls alright


#19

Armageddon, the short interest in Q118 was down to convertible bond holders hedging positions prior to bonds converting. So once they converted, the short interest disappeared, hence no upside price action.

The current ones are more trend is your friend / technical hedge funds, whether they are right or wrong depends on when they buy back. Now the bigger question is do these funds also provide liquidity on a daily basis and day trade the shares, so not increasing their overall positions but having an impact on the daily price ? Also other hedge funds know there is already 3.22% disclosed short interest can equally jump on the bandwagon upto 0.49% without disclosing anything, so we don’t know what the real number is but they know AHL will continue to sell if the trend is going the right way.

Anyway, I expect whatever Trump does vs China, Opec+ does around oil output, shale players do around shareholder returns vs growth will all play an important part in the future price of oil going forward IMHO.

I doubt Trump wants to be known as the President who takes the USA into a recession no matter how much he tries to blame the Fed, it would lead to him losing the US Election which for a man with his Ego is probably worse than anything…all IMHO


#20

Trump was promising his vote base ‘dirt cheap oil’. Smart man. Planned the future. Rather than a weak indicator, it’s a fulfilment to refer to lol.

Don’t think he has much choice there? Maybe escape technical recession in first term? If he does , definetely not second.