All things related to the AM once she gets to Rotterdam to final hook up to the buoy in Lancaster. Then it’s over to the drill watchers! Thanks to Flossoffa for this illustrative picture which hopefully we’ll be replacing with the real thing soon enough.
Thanks Albi1 ( & Flossofa) great pic to start the new thread, gratifying to see sp rising at last…
Yes Millais, it is heartening to see the AM in safe waters. ETA is now 16:00 at the Port of Scheveningen - leaving Rotterdam in the title at least for next few days to see what happens next …
ETD is being given as 12 December from Rotterdam so she may be pulling in at Scheveningen waiting for her berth in Rotterdam? 12 December may turn out to be an old date, as according to the article above it’s looking like she’ll actually leave by the end of November - we’ll see …
When she’s in Rotterdam this might be useful - thanks to Laserdisc on ADVFN: https://www.portofrotterdam.com/en/our-port/see-do-and-experience/see/webcams
As each day goes by the light at the end of the tunnel gets brighter and brighter. It’s been a long wait but foil is now becoming a distinct reality.
With Rotterdam being so busy maybe we are locked into our original date of 25th before we can claim our berth?
Possibly Ash, guess we’ll find out shortly:}
This post on ADVFN claims that the AM will be berthed in Rotterdam from today until 12 Dec, with a change of berth next monday.
Currently only 20nm from Scheveningen
20nm from Scheveningen and only 40p from Bankrupt.
Someone’s not happy.
That’s the funniest post I’ve read all day!!
The Aoka Mizu FPSO has arrived offshore Holland. Final testing and certification of the dynamic positioning system will take place prior to entering Rotterdam, where a final scope of work will be carried out ahead of travelling to the Lancaster field.
Thanks Ash, what a journey, let’s hope the work goes to plan and she’s on her way in a week or so.
News on another BB suggests:
“Latest: Anchored off Holland DP Trials now before berthing 29th.
Will be in Rotterdam for at least 2 weeks.”
So that ties in more or less around an ETD of 12 December - so wait and see time again.
I’ve been having a look at the long range weather forecast for the Shetland Islands and the weather appears to be fairly subdued with no gales or storms forecast in December The only adverse weather is for four days from 28th to 31st of December when the weather is very windy.
Let’s hope there’s a window of opportunity for the Aoka Mizu to get hooked up and producing first oil.
The following link is another long range weather forecast which gives wind speed as well as temp etc. It also shows windows of opportunity to get the A M up and running.
If everything goes to plan and the A M doesn’t hang around in Rotterdam for too long we could easily have first oil in late Dec 2018 or early Jan 2019.
Personally, I don’t think there’s a cat in hell’s chance of anyone doing a reliable forecast that far in advance.
The BBC can’t even predict yesterday’s weather.
Wind itself is not really an issue, it is the wave/swell effects that will make hooking up difficult or impossible, especially the swell. The AM has dynamic positioning, so it will probably be able to overcome the aerodynamic loads up to say a F6 and after that the wave action will probably be the limiting factor. However it is not really the wave action but the longer period (and longer wavelength) underlying swell that will cause the vessel to move bodily up and down and potentially cause hook problems. (Bear in mind that the wind and sea waves may not be in the same direction as the swell, so positioning could be a balancing act). However, I would imagine that a missed hook-up should not be a problem but simply cause a delay, anyway both wave and swell are forecast, see:
All you have to do is interpret that dynamic picture… or alternately, just get to the spot and then hang around until you think it is worth making an attempt, but as there will be relatively little prior experience, you might as well practice while you wait and with any luck, one of those practice runs might just result in a
Ash, totally agree about the predictions, especially with the current volatility of the jet stream.
It will take us no more than 3 days to get there, much less when we’re in Lerwick anchorage; Why would anyone need an accurate forecast more than 5 days in advance anyway?
I’m currently out on a walk on the promise of a cloudy but dry day.
It’s been raining…
The stormsurf forecast is for the coming week and it shows the progression of the waves across the Atlantic so you can make an informed guess about what is likely for a day or two after that.
Looking at the next week to get a feel for the variability, first 3 days are perfect in that in the words of Mr and Mrs Ramsbottom:
`The waves they were piddlin’ and small’
But over the next day they grow through 20ft and finish the week with 40ft plus
FOIL this side of NY in 2018 but now I do not think that will make any difference to the downward projectory of the HUR SP and such like oil shares. Along with the FOIL prediction I would predict our SP will sink to mid to low 20p area in the next 10 - 15 trading days. I believe there will be some excellent opportunities in the aforementioned period to pick up cheap shares before a Big Player makes there move but always be aware of a cheaky bid that could appear at anytime putting a spanner in the works. Tuff times ahead in the short term before things get better. LTH’s are going to need nerves of steel here in the coming weeks.
Of course all above IMVHO and the very best of luck to LTH’s