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SA and Russia Agree

lse:hur

#1

Hi Everyone,

It looks like they have agreed to agree. No figures yet, but let’s hope they make the right decision, we could certainly do with it at this crucial time.

Many thanks to “LuckCounts” on the LSE board for the following link.

All the best.

HTL

[http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-russia-saudi-arabia-205406534.html?guccounter=1)


#2

Putin and MBS may not be the sort of friends you would choose but we are all in the same

Float


#3

I’d say it’s early days yet, let’s see what happens during and after the meeting this week, feels like everything keeps shifting, just my observation/opinion. Am hopeful by the time it really counts it won’t impact us significantly but I could be completely wrong …


#4

Qatar leaving simply means that it has no obligation to cut its output of oil to boost the price but will benefit like the rest of OPEC. The question is what price will they attempt to maintain, my guess is $75 except of course, they are more likely to agree a uniform output reduction across the members of OPEC and hope that the resulting higher price is enough to more than compensate for the loss in export volumes… It will take some time before the higher price stabilises after the promises to reduce volumes because although the traders will attempt to anticipate the price movements, these will be damped by the effects of de-stocking. The PoO is therefore unlikely to have reached its stabilised higher price by the time of

Floil


#5

Flossoffa, yes that makes sense to me, what have I got into by entering this world of oil! Not boring is it!


#6

@Albi1
Albi, are you saying that we are living in interesting times? The Ides of March has come and gone for this year. But beware the Chinese Curse for 2019? To curse or not to curse; I’m IN on HUR! Apologies to Philosophers, Poets and Dramatists. - Kr,A. - LLV


#7

Far too interesting, yes. A sense of dissolution and emergence, of certainty and complete bewilderment - but such is the human condition - so no surprise there then really, it’s the same play, different backdrop. Oil up, oil down, China, Russia, Serbia, Middle East, Brexit, climate change, plastic, planet … where did I put my cup of tea …?

And to add, I guess that’s why in the midst of having really no idea what’s next save for best efforts to apply some kind of logic and reason, maybe it’s best to decide to appreciate what’s right in front of you regardless - on that note just topped up a very modest amount at 44 odd pence as it’s a fair price and I’ve made my mind up on this one - volatile market, steady company.

DSPP on LSE board just posted on the balance of timing re. renewable energy vs the O & G sector. I agree with his view, essentially that Hurricane should be monetising in the next few years and O&G is going to be in demand for at least the next 20 years so timing wise should fit in. Like him though - I have an eye to how things are shifting in this area and it will be one of the factors no doubt in judging an exit strategy when the time is right (one, two, three year’s time …) obviously all IMO, DYOR.


#8

@Albi1
Nice shot, Albi. Pathos (threats of Countries and things) to bathos (your lost ‘cup of tea’). If the latter should be cold when you do find it, have iced-tea - despite the Season.

More (or less) seriously. We are all guessing. Mr Attenborough has just predicted that Climate Change (all these forest fires and things) will wipe out our Civilisation! Dunno. But we need to do much more with our available technological/financial resources to stop these (especially) forest fires IMMEDIATELY and whenever/however/where ever one starts. Spontaneous combustion, lightening strike or arsonists/careless campers, etc.

Of interest to me too is the recent opinion expressed that the big development will not be in totally electric cars (EVs) but in hybrids. (The Author thinks that - in manufacturing - Toyota is best placed to capitalise). The thinking is that we shall be dependent on Oil for much longer than we now imagine. I have no idea. But I am with you on the need for a live exit strategy. Great post from you there.
Kind regards, All. - LLV


#9

Lawson 76,
I do not think we should read to much into Qatar leaving O.P.E.C.
Firstly Qatar is a large gas producer, not a great oil pumper, and secondly I think the withdrawal from the organisation is a reaction to the way the Saudis have treated the Qataris recently.


#10

JLMM2, FWIW, reason I posted that was not so much re. Qatar but to illustrate that perhaps it’s too early to take anything as a done deal. Hopefully cuts are finalised … I’ll believe it when I see it.


#11

My wife and I both have hybrids but not the plug in variety, so we just recover energy from `engine braking’. It certainly extends the mileage by 30% or so but the initial cost is several thousand extra which would buy an awful lot of petrol, so it makes to keep the cars for several years, but then how long does the battery last before it will need replacing at high cost relative to the residual value of the car?

In other words, whilst going green’ looks good socially, as with almost allgreen’ actions, it is hard to justify financially. Which means that although investing in oil might not be socially acceptable, it will make up for it

Flonancially


#12

Hi Everyone,

[http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Joint-OPEC-Committee-Recommends-Cuts.html)

All the best.

HTL


#13

Hi Everyone,

Very interesting article, well worth a read, imo. Many thanks to “JoeBass” on the LSE board for the link.

All the best.

HTL

[http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/trend/2018-oil-gas)


#14

` OPEC failed to reveal a solid agreement in Vienna after hours of meetings. The cartel cancelled its news conference, awaiting the Russian delegation set to arrive on Friday’

Were the Russians travelling by horse and cart or did someone forget to book the tickets, or (whisper this) did they plan to arrive late just to emphasise their key role?

Having demonstrated their power, will they give in to President Trump’s request or would they prefer to echo President Trump’s `America First’ slogan by agreeing to trim production and thus maximise their income from Russian oil whilst also pleasing the other members of

FlOPEC


#15

Hi Floss,

Let us hope that they come to the correct decision. Otherwise, this volatility will continue, which frankly does nobody any good.

Any idea when they are likely to announce a decision?

All the best.

HTL


#16

Hi HTL

Personally, have decided to take a little holiday from following PoO etc. A lot can change between now and let’s say March/April/May when it will really matter for HUR. I’m optimistic that even if PoO temporarily dips below 60 or remains stable at 60, we will still see good profit given the (IMO) conservative production estimates. Longer term, it seems most likely to me that PoO will naturally rise but 2019 is by all accounts likely to be a bit of a volatile year on the markets. Fortunately I think Hurricane is well positioned to weather the ups and downs, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it!