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Sainsbury

lse:bag

#1

Was in SBRY today and walked past the soft drinks section.
A whole aisle was dedicated to Coca Cola – the full length of it.
Across the other side of the aisle was pretty much everything else.

On this second ailse Rubicon had a tiny section about the width of 8 cans.
Just about all of the branded drinks including Fanta, RWhites, IrnBru were discounted between 25 and 40%.
Non of the supermarket brands, which now takes up about a 3rd of that aisle were discounted.
Even without the discounts the supermarket brands were 50% cheaper. The brands look to be living on borrowed promises that people will continue to pay 2 to 3 times the price for similar drinks.
Maybe they will, but the volumes must surely decline.
Irn Bru had a very small space, much smaller than R-Whites, and other Britvic Brands. I watched a few people picking off the shelves, and it seemed that at least those that I saw in the short time I was stood there were happy to pick up the supermarket brands.
Anyone else experience this? – Anyone else bothered, or even invested in A G Barr on this forum?

Games


#2

Hello Games.
I looked over all the spirits and soft drink shares at the end of Sept for a bit more defence in the portfolio…couldn’t find anything that had potential qualities with most in my view on elevated p/e.
In the end I added Sainsbury, so please keep spending your riches there as we don’t have one near us!
PB.


#3

padd – I am of a slightly different view – I would sell SBRY even at this lower price. The management seem to be populated by losers and the profit margins at 2% or less are so low it is a real risk - Aldi and Lidl are still growing - even after 10 years of doing so and each year they eat a little bit more of SBRY’s lunch.
Operating profit almost halved between 2017-18 and it doesn’t look much prettier now. The only reason the revenue grew is because they bought Argos a company that has lower margins that SBRY.
Inventory has doubled in the last 5 years to £2BN.
Borrowings have fallen, which is good, but that could easily rise again as the operational leverage takes hold if sales start to decline 5-10%.
The only real positive is they have £9Bn of property, but how realisable that money is, is a moot point given there are so many shops closing everywhere.
Cash flow looks awful given they have operational cash of £618M and (£474M) investing cash out - how much of that is maintenance capex I don’t know. Also they had Finance negative cash flow (partly dividends) of (£752M) meaning that their cash depleted by £608M last time.

The soups are very good, and the clothes look reasonable for the price level - apart from that I’m a big fan lol !!

Games


#4

Thanks, Games!
Did not buy this expecting it to rocket and your information probably valid (soup reassuring!), but this beat up company must make it alone after merger vetoed.
Within the last three months, pension scheme contributions switched to in kind, saving £50m cash per annum, new mortgages ceased (leaving option of following Tesco with sale of the book), five year store overhaul and integration plan of Argos stores with associated obvious closure economies under way, 15.3% market share dropping more slowly than other 3 majors leading to broker upgrades, full year targets reconfirmed and net debt situation no longer critical. As for property, Supermarket REIT likes to buy Sainsbury stores!
Management team fully aware spotlight on their performances. This doggy has fleas, hence the price and single figure P/E. Nevertheless it may scrub up to a decent hold during the major downturn I expect for the next few years.
Not to mention how actual Brexit affects the food market (soon?).
PB