Scrutable on ADVFN



Great post by ‘Scrutable’ yesterday. Scrutable is a 91 year old ‘sagely’ investor who is greatly admired by Neill R.

“Adjust your glasses. You don’t have to be numerate to see. Anybody looking at the 2-year chart from Feb 2017 can recognise, if shown, that after a sharp re-rating over 11 months from Nov 2017 to Oct 2018 (which at 182p had gone beyond its natural equilibrium with the facts), the share price returned to trend in mid Oct last year and has averaged 27% /pa in contination of the original upward trend channel,- which it has followed calmly for the last four months and is now slightly oversold at 123p. One can expect it to oscillate between 115-144p until it responds to a significant news item suggesting a change in financial performance like the predictability of a repeat order string, or to a Capital event like a good acquisition or substantial new financial partner- perhaps a licensee injecting funds as is often part ofa maturing collaboration. Those squealing impatiently for rapid share price appreciation are not investors but speculators, because the reality that the average buyer has made incremental capital profit at 27%/pa is doing very well by today’s stock market performance, and I do expect a substantial breakout ie windfall,‘soon’, but only NR and his closest executives are in a position to make an informed prediction, which I assume will soon be passed to Canaccord for inferring in their first broker’s Note.”


Scrutable might be ‘sagely’…but he will likely be completely wrong about the prognosis for the SP here.

The peeps least likely to have any clue ?

The board.


Yes…peeps need to be careful here.

Unlikely to go the way that most expect.




At least someone else thinks fairly similar to me and there is nothing in the advfn post that contradicts my thoughts however mine are not based on charts etc

I know nooothing


Mine are based on charts mushroom…very clear ones.


Have to admit that the chart became a bit negative for my liking today PJ, so I derisked in my ISA and SIPP. Seeing long term holders squabbling on Advfn today didn’t help and I think negative sentiment is building, so you might be right that we are now in the C wave of an ABC correction. Hell of a long B wave though.

Hanging on to all the stock I bought at 11.5p in my holdings account since I think the long term prognosis here remains excellent, and I can’t be asked with the tax implications of selling and then possibly buying back within the 30 days. Don’t know about you but I’m thinking it will bottom out around £1 before the next leg up, unless there is some very material news in the interim.



Hi tot

B-waves are usually long-winded. It definitely looks a B though.

It’s almost certainly going well below £1 though.

Have a look at the 5 year chart and see what you think. That tells the bigger story.



The five year chart doesn’t make any difference on the programme I am using for charts PJ with the fib retracement from the peak still showing at £1. That might be a key psychological level too, where the bulls might be expected to make a strong stand.

Now can you please do me a favour and lay off with the gloating and taunting on the FRR board? Some of the guys there are sitting on life changing losses if it doesn’t come back from the dead and you claim to have no position, so give it a rest will you? It’s not a nice trait to have.



There is always potential to sell and then come back in at a cheaper price whilst risking potential news that could impact the SP. We all have to attend to our own strategy.

I haven’t top sliced and I am sitting comfortable in the knowledge that I don’t need to sell and believe in where I feel the future SP will be. I can’t stand the tax implications either.

When I look at a lot of posts I remind myself that:

  • No one will tell you what they are going to do before they do it as they want to take their position first
  • No one puts your interests and strategy before their own
  • No one will tell you they bought at highs and sold at lows
  • They will only tell you the successes

Charts are good if you have a long term establish company with a no or relatively no significant news anticipated. they can be useful very short term and risk based but the opportunity to jump back in remains at a higher price than you wanted

That is not my strategy tho

I know nooothing

PS Phil our paths have crossed on other shares too I remember


Well it’s been bouncing from 104p to the mid 130s since Oct. So guess there’s nothing new here and a good opportunity for a short term trader but of course you need to be able to judge how low it will go this time. I’m sticking this time although I was tempted to ditch the lot and find a safer home, but my mattress is full.


There will be something new here…in due course.


That’s one prediction that will never be wrong!


Yes amazing story that Neill Ricketts makes a detour on a train journey to visit this older investor ( over 90 years )
Just looked at some of his other recent posts , indicates he is in CWR, SPSY, & HMI ( same product as SXX but in Brazil near the vale ( of recent dam tragedy but maybe not this site ) pot ash site .


Yep…looking very grim this one !


Hi pharmajiles
No avatar against your name mine and many others past few days on this site have you noticed this change ?


Buys beat sells by double and yet still down.


Yes…don’t know why Ripley.


Buys v sells is completely irrelevant jaytee.

Make no mistake…this stock is going much much much lower.


Anyone thinking this is the bottom and rhinking of buying in is set to lose a lot of money here.