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lse:lloy

#81

My position hasnt chnaged since Brexit Vote

Sterling would see parity with EU
Few pence here or there

Short term it could fly as much as it wants to.

The bigger thing is that sovereign countries cant control their own currencies specially western pure capitalist countries like UK

UK cant even bring its debt down, nevermind the debt we cant decide on deficit.


#82

If we remain the GBP will return to somewhere where it was before the referendum and after the announcement of the referendum. In the region of 1:1.35 USD

If we leave with free or largely free access to the EU market, GBP will go back to a similar level as above.

If we leave with No Deal GBP will drop to close to parity with the Euro and USD.

That is the way things have moved depending on indications of where we might end up.

However, after the initial reaction and a short settling down period, then fx traders will start looking at the current state of the UK economy more closely, and how it is reacting to the damage already done during the process. Then we’ll see GBP drift down further I suspect because a lot of damage done is already irretrievable in the short-medium term.


#83

I have stayed out of Brexit talk
but
systemic effects of Brexit started after the vote

if it gets deeper, small businesses will get wiped out as the race to zero/lower prices continue - big businesses will survive with very low profits compared to yester-years.

thats make it impossible to get a decent inflationary pressure on economy, over few years deflationary stress will wipe out permanent jobs and running a country on gig economy for UK with v-high debt to GDP…well the future generations are effed.

Thats their fish to fry.

Same would apply to investors, small PI investors will get shafted, almost all next generation Google/Apple will remain off public markts in the hands of PE.

Good few years of LULL in the market.

This time Its going to be
a big stretched U
and not a big V


#84

Still wait and see
October with its usual VOL - not for me


#85

In fact, as can clearly be seen in the fx market if you choose to look closely, the effects began from the announcement of the referendum and GBP rose and fell according to polling data.

Agree with the rest of your assessment.


#86

Big hurdle tomorrow but if Barclay Barnier meet goes well, GBPEUR could have another booster day. If I had time, I’d sit at laptop refreshing my news feed and long or short with weighty authority.
As it is, I’ll be out on a job and probably miss the live updates. Fill your boots soi, it’s an opportunity imo.


#87

This changes things to be more bullish imo guys.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-24/china-to-raise-penalties-on-ip-rights-violations