Share Price first oil



Floss, definitely a buy signal yesterday and today, but since have everything tied up in this at the moment am going to sit tight.


Morgan Stanley reiterates ‘buy’ for shares of Hurricane Energy
Thu, 16th May 2019 15:54

(LSE Sharecast News) - Analysts at Morgan Stanley reiterated their ‘buy’ recommendation for shares of Hurricane Energy, telling clients they continued to see a “realistic bull case” for the company

under which its shares would trade over five times higher by the end of 2020.

According to the investment bank, the outfit’s shares were akin to a ‘call’ option, potentially offering “a very big pay-off”.

Linked to the above, they pointed out four potential catalysts for the share price over the next rougly two months.

The triggers mentioned by Morgan Stanley were: the startup of the early production system at Lancaster, lifting of the first cargo from Lancaster, results from Warwick-Deep exploration well at Hurricane’s Lincoln and Warwick assets, and the company’s Capital Markets’ Day which was tentatively expected for late July.

“We believe even an announcement of the CMD will itself be a good signaling factor,” they said.

Nevertheless, they did also warn that even if those catalysts turned out positively, there might continue to be “significant uncertainty” around the ultimate recovery of reserves at the Lancaster field.

Under said 'bull" case scenario, which assumed a long-term price for oil of $75.0 a barrel, and a value of $8.0 for each of the approximately 785m barrels of 2C reserves at Lancaster and Lincoln, Morgan Stanley estimated a net asset value for the shares of 347.0p.

However, under their base case scenario the projected NAV was now a lesser 58.0p, which was down from 56.0p previously, and under its bear case it was 17.0p, which was up from 14.0p previously.

“We believe a Price Target at this point is not relevant, given the wide range of valuation outcomes.”



Albi1, you have received 11 likes (is this a record?), so I’ve got to be cautious. I have added my favourite love-hate red Valentine tick, because I think your point is well taken, if it is meant to be a cautionary arrow across the bow of B/B intemperance. But being the contrarian that I usually am, this fool will rush in where the Angels may fear to tread.

As much as we should keep the discussion on topic, I wish to caution against any impression or semblance of censorship of content or thought . The talk of many things - terrorism, climate change, geopolitical activities, democracy, shoes, ships, sealing wax, mice, men, cabbages and kings are invariably relevant to the price of our Stock. Even Brexit & Remainers - on which I do not have any particular hang-up. HUR, which operates in such a volatile, politically sensitive and technically difficult field of endeavour is covered by all the above - My pleas is; Just keep it polite, rational and relevant. A little intellectualism woul also be welcomed.

What I am saying is, write about whatever you wish and what you honestly believe is relevant to and worthy of the discourse. What I strongly object to is when it descends from pathos to bathos and we start getting personal and abusing each other. That to me is a big no-no. I stop reading immediately and move on to the other post (if any). I have veto-ed many other sites on this Board because of just that. And have had occasion to both complain and compliment for context, content and relevance on this HUR site (which I still think is one of the best, bar none - where we have an excellent camaradie. Sorry to disagree with you, Albi!1, because if Ihad a Favourite List, you and a few others would definitely be well up there on it - ask my missus, I am always boasting about you, Millais, Aquarian, Ash, Carliol, Floss, etc., by pen-name.
And continued good luck with HUR’s. Watch the share price movement and take some judicious and well thought out profit and replenish if/as you can and without injury to your Exchequer!.
Kind regards, All. - LLV


The problem with that is that it gives everyone free rein to talk about anything and everything getting further and further away from HUR, it’s the nature of lesser boards.


Hi Lawven and Ash

I did hesitate to post, and by the way the 11 ticks up are more likely for the overweight rating from Morgan Stanley (they’re saying the SP could be x 5 its current price by 2020).

I don’t mean to play ‘censor’, more encouraging folk to create a new thread for R / L etc. There are few subjects that have caused so much division in this country in many decades. By all means though create a thread for healthy discussion debate - but not on this one, otherwise it will literally take hours to find anything SP related:}


"…The problem with that is that it gives everyone free rein to talk about anything and everything getting further and further away …"

i hear you, Ash. But everyone on this HUR’s must be presumed to be adult and mature and given ‘free rein’ within relevance, decency and respect. The hallmark of the ‘class’ site is to disciplline ourselves to keep it within those bounds and avoid the personal calumny, abuse and intemperance which typifies some BBs. As Albi1 said, it will not end well without that restraint on each our part.

Albi1, I am not insensible to where the majority thoughts lie - and you are too modest, your post deserves all the ‘Likes’ on its own merit. However, it is just that I would much prefer it if we can audit our writing behaviour to keep it temperate, polite and relevant, because I feel very uneasy when we have to tell others what they can and cannot write (about). To be worthy of this BB one must be able to make that unselfish judgement to keep it relevant and free of acrimony and personal abuse.
Kr,A. - LLV


I think Albi had the best idea, have a separate thread for discussions about non-HUR subjects.
We have a decent bunch of people here who may well enjoy talking about all sorts of subjects from Brexit to travel to sports to…

I go on one sport forum which has a “Lounge” where the sport itself is forbidden!


The biggest plus of the upgrade to ii was it got rid of those who used certain companies forums as their equivalent of Facebook.

e.g. BP had anything but discussions about BP.


Though the SP dipped a bit today, interesting to note strong moving average at the end of the day. Roll on FOIL and CMD.


Compared to a few of my other O&G stocks HUR had a good day!! Unlike FOG (-10) & SDX (-23)


Hello Albi 1,

It was interesting to read the Morgan Stanley report which highlighted the four events that could have a significant positive effect on Hurricane’s share price.

Assuming these events are successful, which no doubt they will be, there is a fifth event that could have a greater effect on the share price than all the other four events put together.

I’m absolutely certain that potential predators are now looking very closely at how Hurricane will develop in the coming weeks and months. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if a hostile bid was made for Hurricane at any time. A lot of the hard work has been done or is already in progress. The EPS is up and running. The FPSO in on site. The drilling of the Warwick Deep is in progress.

The three main events to ensure the future progress of Hurricane came unexpectedly. Kerogen bought into Hurricane when the share price and poo were at rock bottom. A shed load of cash was raised to bring Lancaster into production. The Spirit involvement came out of the blue.

My favourite company to make a bid is B P. I can’t see B P sitting idly by as Hurricane go from strength to strength in their own backyard without doing anything.



Better still if another company makes and offer and BP has to top it.

But I suspect that the bid will not be for the company but for the oil proved to flow i.e. at the moment just Lancaster.
That will then provide the money for the other



Hello Floss,

What a wonderful event to look forward to. A bidding war. Who knows what the share price would end up at.



But we also have Brexit about to happen and having our cash in oil means that we will not lose out if there is a resulting devaluation of Mr Wilson’s pound in your



Could flow for a few months then tail off…hopefully not.
Could get taken out at similar levels such as many others Itheca, Faroe etc …hopefully not.
There are still many “hopefully not” still in this company.

Each step de-risk’s the HUR business and proves up the resource, hopefully the price moves upward with the news {& oil) flow over coming months rewarding long term holders.

Lets not forget the Morgan Stanley also contains a 17p bear case valuation, in addition to the £3.47


"The three main events to ensure the future progress of Hurricane came unexpectedly. "

Good point Carliol and I’ve heard a few others make the same point. Going to be an interesting ride this year!


“But I suspect that the bid will not be for the company but for the oil proved to flow i.e. at the moment just Lancaster. That will then provide the money for the other”

OK, but BP have already contracted to buy oil for a specified period and I understand that they are open to continuing to buy for as long as the price suits them - re. Lancaster. It seems GWA is the game changing point, 6 months from now?


Good Evening Albi 1,

One of the reasons I reckon B P is my favourite oil company to take over Hurricane is that David Jenkins, Senior Independent Non Executive Director on Hurricane’s B o D is a former Chief geologist at B P.

The following is a copy and paste from Hurricane’s web site of Mr Jenkins’ track record with B P. It makes impressive reading:-

Dr David Jenkins
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director

David has spent over 50 years working in the oil and gas industry. He was at BP for the first 37 years, where he held the positions of Chief Geologist in 1979, General Manager, Exploration in 1984 and then Chief Executive, Technology for 10 years from 1987. He retired at the end of 1998 with the position of Chief Technology Advisor for the BP Group.

Following his retirement from BP, David held a variety of advisory and board positions, including nine years on the board of BHP Billiton, and was a member of the advisory board of Riverstone Holdings.

David joined the Board in 2013 and is Senior Independent Director



Hi Carliol

Does seem to be the most likely move doesn’t it? I suspect there may be other interested parties but this could already be a done deal with BP informally waiting on the results of data for all we know. I would hope if they do move in we achieve a decent price - or would our shares automatically become BP shares? I’m not quite sure how it might work in that scenario.

I could also see Hurricane continuing as an exploration company but retaining a share in Rona Ridge in an alternative scenario … Many possibilities here.


Both buyer and seller need to be comfortable that they have a decent deal, so that means either waiting until the field is producing and the data is available to predict the likely life or a deal based on the amount actually produced and paid during production

Flo rata