Now recently retired, i have spent my career working across Africa and SE Asia and have worked on both sides of the fence (donor and execution agencies). My take on climate change is, yes, it is happening but i cannot put my figure on exactly why (and quite honestly i do not think anyone can because it is not that simple).
For example, I was heavily involved in the 80s/90s drought crises across the Sahel. For me the main visible cause was human action related to destruction of forests and complete disruption of the water cycle. Equally i have been working until recently on climate resiliance, improved environmental management and economic uplift of the poorest.
And yes, i have seen the human impact … but not always in the headline manner that we see in the daily rags. For example, we often see heavy, disastrous, life threatening flooding in countries like Bangladesh and read how climate change is causing heavier rainfall, increasing sea level, Himalayan glacial melt, etc. But no one talks about the blocking of ancient drainage canals, the filling of water catchment lakes and the unregulated opening of upstream dams in India.
I do believe that climates change in a cyclical manner - history provides the proof - but also believe that our own actions are certainly exagerating the changes … but how much, i cannot say. I also believe that everyone can do their bit to reduce the impacts, every little counts.
What does worry me is the lack of global efforts to tackle the impacts. No good banning coal burning in UK when Ukraine is burning it; no plastic bags in France is a good move but negated by India churning them out; we can recycle in Europe but not much use when most of the packaging we stick in the bins goes into landfills as far away as Thailand. Who will lead a global drive? Not the UN, I believe, so who?
I really worry for the future of my children and their children.