As we approach the G20 / OPEC this weekend - let’s hope we can all resist the urge to make terrible PoO puns. I did you can too:}
By the time first oil arrives (be it January or whenever) it would have been telegraphed to the market long before. ie arrival of AM etc…
In which case, why would a stock jump 10 % on what would by then be old news?
(not to mention the fact that the quantity is, errr, small to say the least…)
Like me, you are attempting to apply logic to the irrationality of the market. Don’t forget, HUR went from 40 to 45 or so in recent weeks (and now heading back again) with no rhyme or
mallie, Publicity, not just specialist O&G media but mainstream media coverage likely as well. New buyers will come in and market will have to react by moving sp up.
Just my view.
“New buyers will come in…”.
Agree with your view there, Bobsson. Also look for HUR’s migration to the Main Market.
But I am not discounting Floss’ caveat on Market irrationality resulting in volatility at some time or the other. I am sure nobody is, because that ‘irrationality’ is almost a feature of Markets at some time or the other. KrA. - LLV
Migration to the main market will certainly be a positive factor, but the post was referring to the price movement following first oil.
In that case, I suspect it might be a case of “buy the rumour, sell the news”.
Hopefully I’m wrong.
If however, you’re reasoning for expecting the stock price to rise at FOIL could be due to market irrationality, (and @bobsson I don’t assume that you are) then I suspect you’re in the wrong business.
Mallie, all you say may be true. But we are ALL just giving it our best GUESS, aren’t we? Kr,A. - LLV
Analysis might be a better choice of word, based on fact and/or solid reasoning…etc…
You’re better than that @lawven2.
Brent up 2.5%. We are literally days away from hook up at Lancaster, and our sp is being played around with yet again.
The joys of the AIM.
All the best.
Yes indeed, Mallie; ‘analysis’ may well be a ‘better’ word. But a rose by any other name! Are the analysts not still guessing at the outcome? Worse yet, I am not better at anything. And certainly not at guessing or analysis. KR,A. - LLV
Still not yet on the swell chart which only predicts a week ahead:
But the 48 hrs of Wednesday and Thursday show very little swell, so despite it blowing vary hard on Friday (over 40 knots in Fife at least), there are still predictable windows of opportunity to undertake the hook-up under good
Brent up 1.5%. Hur down 2.3%
Looks like a touch of the “mates rates” going on. SP dragged down and held most of the afternoon.
I can sell as many as I want, but can’t buy.
Big boys loading up for the AM Lancaster arrival RNS?
All the best.
I could not agree more. Unfortunately I have been watching it happen so often over the years, that I am sorry to say that a resigned acceptance is about as much as I can muster these days.
All the best.
Hello H t L,
Strange goings on with the share price over the last couple of months.
According to LSE our share price hit an all time high of 60.75p on 2nd Oct 2018.
Also according to LSE there were 3.35m shares traded today of which 1.14m were sold and 1.55m were bought. I wonder what happened to the balance?
None of the above makes any sense. We are within a few weeks of foil from Lancaster. Our fundamentals have improved since our all time high. Even at today’s oil price, our oil produced will be extremely profitable. The Aoka Mizu is safely in European waters. The infrastructure at Lancaster is ready for a hook up to the A M. It’s all systems go but our share price has fell by nearly a third. It doesn’t make sense!
Some posters have had difficulty buying. I wonder if a big hitter has had difficulty buying? Perhaps a predator is building a stake for a cheeky offer? Look what’s happened at Faroe.
Hopefully, we won’t have long to wait before first oil when the share price will undoubtedly reflect the true value of Hurricane.
Yes, I am getting to the point where I have got absolutely no idea where this sp is going. Brilliant company, doing all the right things, on time and on budget. Huge success with the drill and potentially a major generator of future revenue and jobs for the country.
“Hopefully, we won’t have long to wait before first oil when the share price will undoubtedly reflect the true value of Hurricane.”
We have had so many big positive events with HUR since listing on the AIM. Many of them should have acted as catalysts to have had a very positive effect on our sp, but unfortunately to date the best we have done so far is about 50% above the IPO of 43p. Like you say, it does not make sense. I am prepared to believe that there is still a lot of cynicism in the market regarding the viability of the HUR wells, and an almost paranoid fear of risk in this current market, particularly among the big players. Both of those objections will only be addressed imo, when FOIL is up and running and the tests that are essential to the long-term productivity is proven to the markets satisfaction.
So yes, like yourself I would like to see a substantial rise into FOIL, however if the past twelve months of constant selling into every rise is repeated, we might find that we are going to have to be a bit more patient yet before a more realistic value is maintained. We could of course bypass all of this by having an early believer/adopter coming in with a realistic TO offer, which I am sure many of us would be very happy with, including myself.
All of the above is of course only my opinion, DYOR. I could of course be completely wrong, and our sp is being deliberately held down for a cheap TO. I certainly hope that is not the reason, but in this market I have been caught out too many times in the past to discount anything.
The one thing that I cling on to is a total belief in Dr Trice, who I have always believed has both the intelligence and integrity to make sure that he, his colleagues and his shareholders are rewarded justly, and are not conned.
Onwards and upwards.
All the best.
Hello H t L,
Thanks for your brilliant reply. You echo my sentiments on Hurricane entirely.
I hope the lunch in Edinburgh goes ahead, as I’m sure it will, and that you are able to make it.
HTL, there is justified frustration expressed in your post. I share it. Kr,A. - LLV
We are all invested here with the intention of increasing our wealth and for some of us `wealth’ is not a misnomer, but that will not be the case for a significant proportion of HUR investors; for them Christmas is a time when difficult choices have to be made. Do they buy the kids the presents they want or leave the money invested in long term shares? There are bound to be some people who are just as keen as we are on HUR but have other financial pressures that grow stronger as Christmas approaches. Some may sell and others just not buy, but the effect is now
I hear the point that you are making, and in fact there may well be some truth in it. However, I do not think that explains why this has been “pecked” at repeatedly over the past six or so weeks, and has lost almost 30% of it’s value since the high of 60.75 on the 2nd October that “carliol” mentioned.
As you know, there is very often a “Santa Rally” around this time of the year. So let’s hope that tradition is upheld. Ho Ho Ho.
All the best.