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#1

Where do people see the SP going in the short term?

We should all have a view on this, without one, there would be no point being invested either long or short.

To start the conversation off:

I think the latest well, WW, will cause a major drop if it is a duster. I have somewhat revised my views on its success, if it proves Lincoln and Warwick are linked it could repair a lot of the damage the WD well result did. However, I would not expect too much of a rise in the share price as the usual traders will sell into any spike.

I do not think the 6th lift will make any difference to the SP.

The Jan 2020 CMD has the potential to raise the SP, but a considerable amount of information is in the public domain already. We know that 1.9m barrels of oil have been produced in just over 4 calendar months and the 6th off load is due soon. If we compare that to Hurricanes guidance (9K for Q1 and 13k for Q2) 2m barrels for the first 6 months, we are already at the guided 6 month mark and by the CMD we should be at the guided 8-9 month mark (out off; 6 to 12 months to prove the concept). Hurricane will have to inform the market that the EPS is a success. This will be a surprise to no one, so why would there be a SP reaction? There could be some new information about potential recovery rates and the reason WD failed, but if the EPS is not a success this is irrelevant.

At present the SP is bobing along on relatively small volumes going nowhere fast. The comments on the bulletin boards are about MM manipulation, PI’s moaning that the SP will never rise and then stating that they have sold half their shares. Am I the only one that thinks this is a self fulfilling prophecy?

What I think will happen is that serious investors will not look at Hurricane until the WW drill is done, why would they expose themselves to the downside of a bad result? If WW is a success, the usual traders will sell into the spike constraining the SP.

Given a WW positive result the serious investors and institutions will start to accumulate before the CMD where Hurricane announce to the world, what it already knows, that fractured basement on the UKCS is a roaring success. This is clearly the smart play and this is where we will see the SP rise.

I would like to hear others opinions on what they believe will increase the SP and when, or why I am wrong.


#2

In short, the passage of time. The reason for the disconnect between the current SP and the long term potential' is that expressionlong term’.

Many (perhaps even most) punters hope that they can spot a way to get a (hopefully decent) return on their savings but they don’t plan to lock away' their savings in a share that they cannot sell (not because it is illiquid but because selling would crystalise hardly any profit). Their savings are there for either Christmas or arainy day’ and investing in a slow moving share would mean no profit after dealing costs unless it has been held for years. The bank is the best place for that sort of savings, or a secure utility share returning a modest but reliable few percent.

Another potent factor is the masses of publicity that has been (and continues to be) given to the green movement. It is of course true that we are adding CO2 to the atmosphere which is having a warming effect and which obviously has negative side effects. However it also has positive side effects as well as enabling our current civilisation.

Looking back in history, the coal industry was hardly a walk in park' whole families laboured down the pits here in Fife, Dad lying in the coal dust swinging a pick at the coal face, mum and weans pushing the filledhutches’ along wooden rails to the bottom of the shaft; poor ventilation and the ever present risks of collapses and explosions… Coal was a black scar on the lives of many poor folk.

But coal fed the steam engines that powered the Victorian dash to our modern civilisation and oil is no less essential to building the future for our great great grandchildren where quite possibly some other means of powering transport will have displaced it. e.g. The obvious answer is right under our noses i.e. our own muscles. We convert sugar to power in our muscles; the mechanism is well understood, we just need someone to produce an engineering equivalent.

But until such time as this or electric vehicles have seriously reduced the demand for oil, it is serving the same essential role as coal did for over a century. So patience is needed but at least the unpopular nature of HUR shares means that they are under priced judged against what we believe will be the ultimate value.

All that said, it is certainly an excellent share for pension funds which can obviously afford to have a proportion of their shares for long term; so punters are not the only potential buyers. The SP will obviously react whoever buys and repeated pension fund purchases could build a sense of

Flomentum


#3

But we should not discount external factors:

`In a sign of Iran’s declining cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the regime also temporarily detained and then expelled an IAEA inspector this week. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday warned that these steps suggest Iran’s preparation for a near-term nuclear breakout. That breakout would very likely allow Iran to produce a nuclear weapon within a 12-month period. Something, Pompeo said, that the United States “will never allow.”

Regional context is also king here. Iran’s penchant for new hostility is fueled by its anguish over rising protests against its influence in Iraq and Lebanon. The regime wants to present a message of resolve. But if Iran decides to breakout toward a nuclear weapon, President Trump will have to choose between two unpleasant options: either accepting an Iranian nuclear force or conducting a high-intensity naval

Flockade.’


#4

Flossoffa

I was hoping for a discussion on Hurricanes share price not the world’s energy market and banking system.

My understanding is that coal is sill being used in energy generation in the UK 35 years after the British coal industry was destroyed. Indeed, are Germany and Poland not increasing production of “brown coal”. How about US coal, was this not part of the reason Trump was elected to protect this industry.

The problem with renewables is you cannot turn the wind and sun on and off. Therefore you need a parallel carbon or nuclear generation capacity for when the sun don’t shine and the wind don’t blow.

Hinkley Point C latest date to come online is end 2025, so plenty of time for this date to be revised to 2030 and beyond. Hinkley Point C is only to replace existing capacity that has been, or will be closed. Are any other nuclear plants in the pipeline? 10 years for design, planning and public inquiry, then 10 years more for construction. Would successive governments and the public continue to support this course of action, or will it be continually delayed by endless consultation, inquires and dither. With luck we could solve the renewables shortfall in about 20-30 years, or 2039-2049, with nuclear if we start tomorrow.

Your posts do not seem to factor in the rising global population and the 3rd worlds completely reasonable expectations to live like the first two. It will all take energy.

It looks like we will be stuck with oil for a long time, wether we like it of not.

I was not asking what the macro effects would be on HUR SP and suggest if you wish to continue this discussion you open a new topic dedicated to it.

ATB.

p.s. Do you have any views on HUR short term SP due to HUR upcoming potential news flow?


#5

Yes of course, we all know that sometime soon there will be news but until it is announced, we don’t know if it will be as good as we hope or not. The current hesitant SP is an accurate reflection of people’s feelings of hope undermined by their fear of losing money.

Obviously simply giving an opinion without having to back it with hard earned cash means that hopes can be unfettered by fear and any replies to your query are therefore likely to be unreliable because they could well be biased by this one sided

Floptimism


#6

Response to Media Speculation

Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company focused on hydrocarbon resources in naturally fractured basement reservoirs, provides an update in relation to the 204/30b-4 (“Warwick West”) well.

The Company notes the media speculation regarding the Warwick West well. The well is due to commence testing soon. The timing of testing is weather dependent. As such it is far too early to make any conclusions as to the success of the Warwick West well.

An update will be provided once testing commences and on the completion of well testing.


#7

Well, well, excuse the pun. We can take from that that the well is at least worth testing, mud returns are showing something


#8

45p, anybody see the ‘media speculation’ that brought on the RNS?


#9

Are you invested? Long or short? If so, how did you do it without using “hard earned cash”?

Looking at the 7.75% spike on rumour, it looks like the SP is primed for a good WW result.


#10

https://twitter.com/ArmitageJim?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

and

UNCOOKED ALERT: Hurricane Energy said to …
Friday, 8 November 2019, 9:44 am
Hurricane Energy, the London-listed North Sea oil explorer, is said to have struck a huge amount of oil at its Warwick West well.

People following the situation said this was an “large” discovery following September’s announcement about the spudding of Wawick West.

One person following the situation said Hurricane Energy could go on to generate between 500 million and 900 million barrels of oil from the horizontal well at Warwick West, which has exceeded all of management’s expectations.

To be clear, the above story is UNCOOKED. In case you don’t remember I have pasted the definition of UNCOOKED below:

UNCOOKED: Market gossip as Betaville receives it. This scuttlebutt has just come in and hasn’t been checked with all of Betaville’s well-informed RARE sources let alone formal journalistic channels (public relations executives, bankers etc). The rumour might be total codswallop, nonsense or rubbish - but then again there may be something in it, so it’s worth airing on Betaville.


#11

Thanks, let’s wait for the next RNS or a nice pic of a massive flare.


#12

Obviously I am invested but without going into details, you will need 7 figures to count my shares and I did it by selling a company that took 20 years to build during which time I put money into my pension fund and now 80% of that pension fund money is invested in HUR.

So I am obviously a

Floptimist.


#13

Note `One person’ unidentified promoting a story that is likely to push up the SP. Could that same one person be planning to sell some of his HUR shares to meet an upcoming bill? If so, he would benefit considerably if he could boost the price now and then buy back once the rumour proves to be

unFlounded.


#14

Yet you have no opinion on HUR short tern SP movement!

Do I remember you being invested in XEL and losing a small fortune?


#15

If the rumour was unfounded why would he “buy back”?

I think you need to ask someone to explain the working of the stock market, before you lose another small fortune.


#16

I am currently away celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Ocean Youth Trust Scotland, charity for which we bought two 72ft yachts, so this is being tapped out on my phone.

My failure to sell out my XEL investment at the peak price is just one of my several failures (thank you for reminding me) but despite inevitably making mistakes along the way, I am extremely fortunate to still be solvent beyond my wildest dreams, so I must have got more things right than

Flong.


#17

Sorry you missed the “peak price” in XEL, most fantasists seem to hit it spot on. Are you suggesting that losing a small fortune in XEL, was due to the “peak price” being below your “purchase price”?

We all make mistakes, but your excuse sounds like a load of BS.

You still cannot state any reasons for staying invested in HUR in the short term, looks like you invest on guesswork.


#18

As I am a long term investor, it is difficult to avoid staying invested over a continuous series of short terms

alFlo


#19

Well it depends what you mean by guesswork; if you mean looking at the factors that could affect the future SP and making a considered judgement taking into account our family circumstances, then I must plead guilty. But not guilty if you mean the sort of guesswork involved in throwing a dice or tossing a

Florin


#20

Flossoffa

You have completely failed to address anything regarding the SP and have constantly changed the topic to issues you like to discuss, or onto yourself.

On a financial discussion board dedicated to HUR, I think your actions are rude and self-obsessed. No wonder these boards are becoming less and less useful as they are filled up with pointless rubbish. Why not try Facebook which is designed for people to talk about themselves.

As to being a LTH, therefore not needing or requiring a view on the short term SP, may I say this is a lazy, stupid way to invest and could be the very reason you lost a small fortune in XEL?

None so thick as those who repeat their mistakes.

ATB