Where do people see the SP going in the short term?
We should all have a view on this, without one, there would be no point being invested either long or short.
To start the conversation off:
I think the latest well, WW, will cause a major drop if it is a duster. I have somewhat revised my views on its success, if it proves Lincoln and Warwick are linked it could repair a lot of the damage the WD well result did. However, I would not expect too much of a rise in the share price as the usual traders will sell into any spike.
I do not think the 6th lift will make any difference to the SP.
The Jan 2020 CMD has the potential to raise the SP, but a considerable amount of information is in the public domain already. We know that 1.9m barrels of oil have been produced in just over 4 calendar months and the 6th off load is due soon. If we compare that to Hurricanes guidance (9K for Q1 and 13k for Q2) 2m barrels for the first 6 months, we are already at the guided 6 month mark and by the CMD we should be at the guided 8-9 month mark (out off; 6 to 12 months to prove the concept). Hurricane will have to inform the market that the EPS is a success. This will be a surprise to no one, so why would there be a SP reaction? There could be some new information about potential recovery rates and the reason WD failed, but if the EPS is not a success this is irrelevant.
At present the SP is bobing along on relatively small volumes going nowhere fast. The comments on the bulletin boards are about MM manipulation, PI’s moaning that the SP will never rise and then stating that they have sold half their shares. Am I the only one that thinks this is a self fulfilling prophecy?
What I think will happen is that serious investors will not look at Hurricane until the WW drill is done, why would they expose themselves to the downside of a bad result? If WW is a success, the usual traders will sell into the spike constraining the SP.
Given a WW positive result the serious investors and institutions will start to accumulate before the CMD where Hurricane announce to the world, what it already knows, that fractured basement on the UKCS is a roaring success. This is clearly the smart play and this is where we will see the SP rise.
I would like to hear others opinions on what they believe will increase the SP and when, or why I am wrong.