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lse:hur

#99

Ricfle,
Share price has taken a beating. I think its hard to stay bull now. I mean, realistically is there anything positive to look forward to?..I’m starting to doubt that myself…what do you think?

Cheers


#100

Thanks to Missdosh and Smoggey79 on LSE:

https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3016531&headline=HRCXF-Hurricane-Energy-downgraded-to-Market-Perform-from-Outperform-at-BMO-Capital


#101

Share price continues to struggle at around 27p today 14th January. We have no recent news from the company, but we await the 8th lift of oil soon. A poster on another bb has found that HUR are going to charter an anchor handling/survey ship soon. I am hoping it will be hired to find a location and lay anchors ready for another Lancaster production well. Another poster has speculated that the requirement for a Lincoln sub vertical well could be to define the field boundary to establish if the Lincoln field extends into PMOs Solan licence area. As I stated in an earlier post I think the joint venture between HUR and Spirit is unofficially paused pending the sale of Spirit this year. I would be happy to see Spirit leave, it means HURs stake will revert to 100%, I just hope its 100% of something big.
HUR will be producing 20,000 bpd at the end of this month. We know the FPSO is easily capable of handling all the currently produced water that one of the two Lancaster wells is producing so no problems at all as far as I am concerned. There should be an oil lift every third weekend going forward, with two lifts in some months, this should be generating $25 million per offload. I fully expect an oil price in the $70 to $75 range this year which will push each offload to over $30 million.
I really think HUR should give us a corporate update prior the CMD at the end of March.
IMHO


#102

Squinn

News as I see it:

Next offload. Cannot see it making any difference to the SP.

2020 Q1 Presentation. Would be nice to know just what HUR and Spirit are actual going to do in 2020, but from reading the EV article they do not seem to know themselves. Could help or hinder the SP.

Rig/drilling news. Cannot see any of the proposed wells giving the SP a boost.

Tie in of Lincoln to FPSO. Looking at the EV article it seems to be on hold, so 2021 at earliest. At a total cost of $187.5m with Spirit paying $140.5m, plus rig costs of up to $52.5m, you can see why Spirit would drag their heels for a well with a PI of 18-20 after already paying $180.5m to drill it.

Offloads at 20,000 barrels per day. Cannot see this making any lasting difference to the SP.

End of year results. Sometimes the market does not take into account the money earned until the end of year results are published. Could benefit SP.

CMD. This is water cut dependent. I believe the water is perched as HUR state, but what no one can say is how large it is. It could start decreasing as soon as they turn the next well on or it could increase for months. Also what was meant by Dr T in the EV article when he dodged the question “But what does constant production currently mean?”. Does the 6-12 months start from late Jan 2020 when they turn the wet well back on?

Has anyone something I have missed or good reasons why the SP will go up, I would like to hear them.


#103

I agree Ricfle,
I also would like to hear any other posters opinions on the SP and where we might be 6 months from now. I feel like the company should give a little more info…all seems pretty vague at the moment. We would really need to see a tie back to LC for any increase in price… However I seriously doubt that will happen 2020 so I agree with your statement on this being 2021. As I say, I am finding it extremely difficult to be bullish on this share now… Even in the mid to long term… Am I right…?.. Who knows, time will tell. Defo not for the faint hearted this one now…


#104

My guess for 6 months from now - 31p


#105

Is that a minus sign?

`The market’ is supposed never to be wrong but HUR was valued (by the market) at almost twice the current price well before there was any certainty about getting commercial production from fractured basement, yet the reality must be far better than envisaged back then as we now have a high oil price and tankers shuttling back and

Florth


#106

I guess they balance out, more certainty about the ones flowing but only about half the overall full field left.
Everyone, ie the big boys, knows the plan so I’m assuming all we are likely to get is the current SP, for at least a year anyway.


#107

squinn, 6 months so middle of July. I have no idea what the share price will be then.
However things that might happen between now and then, and I will state them in the positive but they may turn out to be negative.
The Lancaster EPS production ramps up to 20,000 bpd average
The water cut from the 7z well starts to decline, so proving it is perched water
The FPSO modifications and tie back to the WOSP nearly complete to enable it to handle 30,000 bpd
The Lincoln Crestal well is completed and work is being undertaken to tie it back to the FPSO in partnership with Spirit
The Warwick licence, which expires 31/8/2020 is extended for 5 years with a one well drill obligation
The Halifax Licence, which expires 13/11/2020 is extended for 5 years with a two well drill obligation
The sub vertical Lincoln well has completed and been P&Ad and shows Lincoln field is large and does run into PMOs licence area - Solan.
The rig has spudded a third Lancaster production well.
The JV has agreed to drill a second Lincoln production well and it is going to be tied back to the Solan production facility.
The oil price is now consistently at $75 per barrel and HUR is receiving $30 million for every 21 day offload of oil.
The continued success of HURs WOS project leads to media speculation that a major oil company is considering either a farm in or a takeover bid.
Just my rose tinted view


#108

That’s the Spirit!

How could we have got to our present state of general development without such optimistic people in the past deciding to try to see if they could invent a better

Flousetrap


#109

In an ideal world we could fund a 4D seismic program.


#110

Here is a link to Crystal Amber’s RNS :

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CRS/monthly-net-asset-value-kh8i1spsq9rzx78.html

You will note the following statement:

“Cash generation gives Hurricane optionality to explore, invest to increase production, or consider returns to shareholders. At the current share price, the Fund believes that a buyback of shares could be an attractive use of capital in the interest of the company.”

Any thoughts?


#111

yes I have one Ricfle

funds generally talk through a selfish hole in their ‘bleep’ (you get the picture)

‘‘buyback of shares is an attractive use of capital’’ ?

other than the obvious reduction of shares in circulation WTF does that ever achieve for current long term shareholders as invariably the SP never ever goes up relevant to any decrease in stock as it logically should if one were to assume the MCAP was to remain the same

you just need to look at one of your old favourites GKP to see it does SFA for shareholders given the SP has lost almost a third of its value since they announced and initiated their buyback scheme :open_mouth:

funds are the only ones that really gain in this scheme as they can offload large amounts of stock at a time back to the company rather than trying to dump big volumes on the open market to the retail punter

I have also noted from other company buyback schemes it is often followed a few months or perhaps a year later by another round of fundraising to replace the capital they wasted buying the stock back so the end result is you are likely to have the same shares back in circulation at some point

so for me you either spend the free cash in developing and increasing the value of your existing assets or go out into the market and buy some more production thus increasing your immediate cash flow or if their are no immediate opportunities to do either of the above go and pay off some of that debt and as a worse case (rather than buying back stock) they could give some back to shareholders in dividends, however for any young company like this (without exposure to other streams of geographical production and/or income as a protective diversification) whilst still carrying significant levels of debt I don’t really agree with paying dividends just to try and appease shareholders

growing the business by increasing the value of ones underlying assets either through current field production increases or having exposure to other production acreage will IMO surely be more than enough to appease current share

FLolders


#112

WOW some proper meltdowns happening over on the madhouse :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

it certainly sounds as if some have got themselves way over invested whilst hoping for that triple digit dream in what is currently (sorry to say) a one trick pony

decades of history will show the alternative market place doesn’t take kindly to prolonged periods of silence and therefore post 13th Dec RNS I cannot imagine why PI’s would expect anything else to occur other than a drift back down and with the CMD still a long way off in terms of market unknowns who knows where it might drift back too yet

but the simple fact is the trumpeted 40p plus plus was never going to happen in the immediate aftermath of the latest drill and its now questionable (field development) results despite what Dr T’s pompous cheerleaders would have you all believe however one thing (amongst the hundreds) I have learnt over my 25+ investor years is that no matter what you might say or how many times you might say it on a blog the market will always decide the price so your energy and time is far better spent trying to work out what that market price might actually be in periods of prolonged news blackouts rather than ranting and raving on a silly blog

so in all seriousness folks it really is very simple

if you believe (in your investment) you believe, however I would also suggest that perhaps some of those people ranting and raving daily on the blogs need to invest a helluva lot less chasing the proverbial get rich quick retirement dream and go and get themselves a bloody

FLife :hugs:


#113

Nelly

Two very good posts.

I have never owned a single share in GKP. I will not invest in any company who’s CEO thinks they are some sort of rock star, take SOU as an example. I did own some shares in XEL for a very short period on a technical trade, very pleased to get shot with 3-4 k profit, but felt dirty all the time I held.

As you rightly say a share buy back it BS. CA interests have clearly not been the same as HUR interests for years. RB has an end of year to justify, he will not be blaming himself for his funds lack of performance.

I was reading a technical post the other week saying something like: “double bottom at 29p back to 35p
easy money”. At the time I thought AIM shares are news driven and stagnate on no news, I hope they took this into account.

As to SP I will take a stab, 24p to start with. If that holds all well and good, if not we could be back in the teens.


#114

13 - 18p I hope, Deja Vu and nearly back to the price I started this journey. When I sold out at mid to lat 40’s I expected this to catapult to 70 - 80p mark. I know a lot of people invested in this and holding in vain for a SP recovery, I believe this is a lost cause now as the markets have ravaged this SP for some reason and expectations of a £ and fantasy numbers above this now make those that made that prediction look novice/armature investors. When the SP hits the lows I hope for above I will buy a bucket load again and tuck away for the kids.

All above IMHO, and good luck to all investors


#115

Crystal Amber are an “activist” fund, ie they usually invest in companies whose share price and management are under performing the market. Up until now, CA have been fully supportive of HUR management and plans. So todays statement is the first sign they are not happy with the way HUR`s management and share price have have been performing. A lot of large trades going through after the bell and perhaps HUR have taken CAs advice and bought a few shares back for cancellation. If so there will be an RNS tomorrow.
However, I am content for HUR to build up a cash pile until the status of Spirit in the JV is confirmed. Yes Spirit will be obligated for a lot of the 2020 capital costs, but if they pull out HUR will face increased costs in 2020, but things should be manageable in 2020 and 2021.
We shall see.


#116

Really?

I think not. What about RB’s article in the Times about HUR lack of corporate government and the resignation of the last Chairman, quoting that Dr T will not let anyone play with his train set.

Crystal Amber are only interested in Crystal Amber and RB in himself. Unfortunately, CA have lost money again this year and RB needs someone to blame, as despite being in charge, it could not possibly be his fault.

As to the advice for HUR to start a share buy back programme, CA own share buy back programme has done stuff all for their share price.


#117

CA were not the only ones to adversely comment about the resignation of the previous Chairman. And all those comments were justified. CA very quickly announced they were satisfied when HUR advised they would move to be fully compliant with corporate governance norms. I would fully expect CA to be only interested in the fortunes of CA and their shareholders, to do this you have to ensure that all of your investments are sound and their management are performing. CA were also critical of the manner of one of HURs fundraisings and had to step in to buy a lot of shares to steady a share price in freefall.
As small PIs average Joe has no influence, but with a 5 or 6% stake in a company, and a forthright, punchy style, CA do get noticed and heard by the Company and the financial media, and they are therefore influential.


#118

Who else commented? What was supposedly wrong, no one knows to this day.

The comments were due to RB being over exposed to HUR and needing some one to blame for his funds lack of performance. The same as the latest BS about share buy backs.

CA investment in HUR is about the only thing that has keep that fund alive for the last few years, is this due to CA having no real input into how HUR are run? Their other investments are terrible, you could do better picking 12 random stock without and research.

Another fantasy, RB commented that CA “could” have underwritten the raise, but so could the house brokers. This is just RB claiming credit for things he has not done.

CA are a waste of time and have been a constant drag on HUR for years. I for one did not invest in a company for it to prop up a half arsed “activist” fund. The quicker CA go bust the better.