Menu
Close

Sirius

lse:sxx

#41

I’m aware that a lot of PI’s are nursing heavy paper losses at moment, however, seems a bit pointless selling at first sign of serious interest from a white night.

I appreciate that some may be financially vulnerable or have lost all appetite for risk, but for those who have approached sxx as the speculative investment it always has been, then there may still be some excitement ahead.

With BHP also having interest in this sector and potentially investing $4.7bln in their Canadian mine (still at feasibility stage) its seems inconceivable to me that they would sit back and allow AA to obtain competing assets at a significant discount. Allowing a significant capital cost advantage to a competitor would be risky if not down right negligent.

If I were on the BOD of BHP I would be doing all I could to mitigate the situation. To even feign an interest in sxx would likely increase to cost for AA. You never know, they may have genuine interest in sxx. Still worth holding to see in my book.

I am in the lucky position of only buying in on 6th November last year and in rather modest numbers so don’t have the financial losses weighing on my decision.


#42

So this is how the SXX investment story ends. It’s been quite a story over the last 11 years I’ve been involved. I haven’t held any shares since 2013, when I sold everything for a pretty big profit (held at 7p, sold in 2 tranches one @ apprx 30p and the other @apprx 18p).

SXX has been a munter as an investment prospect since those days, but the good news is that the mine will go ahead of the acquisition goes through, so that’s good for the local & UK economy, but investors have been rinsed (as they should have seen coming).


#43

AA have till Feb 5th to confirm a firm bid. More waiting time. Yes, lots of shafting, but not on site.
Whom ever gets the mine will have 100 years of big profits, that’s why Mining analysts were advising valuations of £1.22 per share for this low cost product once the mine was built. You would think AA can’t be the only interested party.
IMHO. IB.


#44

Food for thought:

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/01/11/why-i-think-the-sirius-minerals-share-price-could-fall-60-in-2020/

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#45

That’s possible Billy, but the tone of the RNS suggests that there’s unlikely to be anyone else coming in at above 5.5p.

Obviously if you’re reasonably confident of a better offer being made, then you could make a nice little earner by buying up shares now. If you’re adding to your holding, then I hope it turns out well for you

BB


#46

Hi BB.
No, I am not adding, just holding my remaining shares after selling another 50% at 5.5p.
Sold earlier 50% on the way down. it’s just wait and see if we do get another bidder.
But very disappointed for all PIs.
One RNS thing, all these RNS share declaration notifications show how wide spread Fund investments had been and expected big things from SXX. The nearer its gets to crunch time, the more they will plump for 5.5p when the vote comes. Cheers IB.


#47

News item on Reuters 2 days ago.
and revelation like “Sirius in discussions for 9 Months” , also words of “significant discount” “a rare chance to buy near the bottom of the market” !!!

  • Offer likely to be confirmed in coming days - sources
  • Anglo and Sirius in talks for 9 months - sources
  • Anglo unlikely to increase bid value - sources
    By Barbara Lewis and Clara Denina

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Anglo American Plc is
likely to confirm a deal to buy fertiliser company Sirius
Minerals Plc for more than $500 million excluding debt,
ahead of an early February deadline to finalise its bid, three
sources close to the matter said.
Anglo said on Jan. 8 it was in advanced talks over a 5.5
pence ($0.7138) cash offer for the venture that is Britain’s
biggest mining project.
Sirius’ share price rose more than a third when Anglo
announced its indicative offer and it closed at 5.4 pence on
Tuesday.
The company has until Feb. 5 to make a firm offer or walk
away, but a bid is likely in the coming days, the sources said.
Anglo declined to comment and Sirius was not immediately
available to comment.
A deal would throw a lifeline to Sirius and is politically
resonant as it would save hundreds of jobs in northern England,
where the lack of opportunities was an issue in the election
that returned Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to
power.
It would also diversify Anglo American’s portfolio and mark
its return to fertiliser. It sold its remaining fertiliser
project in Brazil in 2016 when it was recovering from a
commodity market crash.
Sources said the two companies have been in talks for the
last nine months. They said Anglo is unlikely to increase its
offer.
“There is significant value that Anglo can capture with the
discount that Sirius trades at, because they can bring financing
and knowledge on how to push the project forward,” said RBC
analyst Tyler Broda.
Anglo will have to invest more than $3 billion over five
years. This is modest compared with the $8.8 billion cost of its
Minas Rio iron ore project in Brazil, which it bought at the top
of the cycle.
Sirius has struggled to get bank financing to complete its
project since fundraising with retail investors in 2017. It
embarked on a review after scrapping a plan to raise $500
million in a bond sale.
The share price fell more than 80% in 2019.
The sources also said Sirius was unlikely to get a better
offer.
Anglo last week said Sirius provided a rare chance to buy
near the bottom of the market.
The project could also help Anglo move away from more
polluting assets, notably coal, as investors demand miners
become more climate aware.


#48

Very sad. It seems Fraser and the team just weren’t quite up to the (very ambitious) task of delivering this project and have had to send for the grown-ups. I’m building a small stake in AAL as I still believe in this project and think they may have the bargain of the century on their hands. And I’ll probably put my sxx 5.5p if/when it comes through into Anglo as well.


#49

Jefferies seems to be increasing its holding.
Check out today’s rns and yesterday’s !!


#50

I am still holding some shares in case we get a surprise before the 5th,
IB


#51

I’ve kept the lot, I’d written them off, anything is now a bonus.


#52

IT’S OFFICIAL. ANGLO BID 5.5p FOR SIRIUS.
(Reuters) - Anglo American (AAL.L) on Monday agreed to buy Sirius Minerals (SXX.L) for 404.9 million pounds ($526.2 million) in cash, marking the global miner’s return to fertilizer and throwing a lifeline to the struggling Sirius.
Sirius shareholders will receive 5.50 pence per share in cash, a 34.1% premium to the closing price on Jan. 7, which was the day before Anglo American said it was in talks to buy the fertilizer company. Shares of Sirius Minerals were 1.9% higher, while Anglo shares up 0.4% in the early trading.
“We now face a stark choice. If the acquisition is not approved by shareholders and does not complete there is a high probability that the business could be placed into administration or liquidation within weeks thereafter,” Sirius Chairman Russell Scrimshaw said.
The potential deal is also expected to save hundreds of jobs in northern England, where the lack of opportunities was an issue in the general election that returned Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to power.
Scrimshaw said if the deal falls apart it would most likely result in shareholders losing all of their investments putting the future of the entire project and its associated benefits for the UK, at risk.
The acquisition will also see Anglo American expanding its portfolio back into fertilisers after it sold its remaining fertiliser project in Brazil in 2016 when it was recovering from a commodity market crash.

a sad day for all investors who bought at 22p and other higher values.
IMHO. IB.


#53

Sad for the shareholders, many of who were first timers who over-extended themselves, but good for the area and the country that the project will go ahead now that the grown-ups have taken over.


#54

…and boom goes the dynamite.


#55

This cheap buy out still seems crazy to me.
Even most of the investment funds now stand to lost £ Millions and the largest shareholders Jupiter, Pelham,Qatar and Citiogroup lost a few Billion. When some sort of joint funding would reward them for many years to come in the Billions. Crazy for one company to get Sirius on the cheap.
IMHO. IB.


#56

Some more info from AAL RNS site
Sirius Minerals itself said its directors consider the acquisition to be “fair and reasonable”, and have recommended that shareholders vote in approval of the offer.

The offer is conditional on no fewer than 75% of Sirius shareholders voting in favour of the acquisition at an upcoming general and court meeting, as well as being sanctioned by the High Court of Justice in England & Wales.

Anglo American said it expects the acquisition to be completed by the end of March.

“Anglo American’s recommended offer provides greater certainty for Sirius’ shareholders, employees and wider stakeholders, while bringing the prospects for the development of this potential tier 1 project closer to reality,” said Anglo American Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani


#57

Well, there we are, if this item as reported on another chat site is true. I would say “very shafted by inadequate BOD.”

In December 2019, Sirius received a non-binding term sheet from the consortium to form the basis of a US$680 million funding package to cover the initial scope of work. On 9 January 2020, Sirius received a revised non-binding term sheet from the consortium. The Sirius Board reviewed the proposed terms and conditions, together with its advisers, and concluded that the consortium’s conditions and the time it would take to meet such conditions were such that there is a very material risk that the overall funding package would not be implementable by the end of March 2020.


#58

Not sure why you’re querying it’s accuracy Billy ?

That text is pretty much the same as what was in this morning’s RNS. Apart from the board and a few other people, no-one knows what the t’s and c’s of the funding were and how much they’d effectively dilute shareholders. For arguments sake, that deal might have left shareholders with something that valued your shares at 6.5p, but, if it didn’t actually come through, then the Bod would be risking the Anglo deal being pulled, the company going bust, and shareholders being left with fook all.

For months, if not years, posters have been telling everyone how wonderful the BoD is, so it seems a bit daft to start looking for conspiracy theories whereby the BoD are screwing shareholders now.

I mean, they might be screwing shareholders, and they could certainly be accused of understating the risks a bit ( but what Bod doesn’t ? ), but, overall, they tried to get the project through to the next stage.
However, in the end, they weren’t up to the task because they underestimating the problems involved in getting people to fund Stage 2 - not helped by an increased funding need.


#59

Yes, found and read original RNS from yesterday morning. Russell Scrimshaw did confirm these talks happened in Dec and Jan. He said it failed due to timing. I read Reuters . Thanks BB.


#60

It’ll be interesting to see whether or not Fraser stays on at YP.

Also, there have been a lot of cushy deals with share options over the years with mambers of the board. I’ll be interesting to see what happens with any outstanding and whether they get any AA options dished out to them.