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Slight surprise that no comments on price collapse here?

lse:vod

#221

@Ripley94
70

I remember the days when the likes of vod were serious capital return bankers into ex div runs. Now the market is really making you gamble, on a few of these this year. Not worth it


#222

Hi Again @j_westlock, Yes I will have to take a look at that in slower time. Added IUKD to my ZILK & ZWUK holdings analysis. IUKD has 51 holdings of which ~54% are covered by weight by ZILK but only ~38% by ZWUK. On todays performance I thought it would be higher than that. IUKD & ZILK are both up 1.48% right now, all of the others are down IAPD & IDVY by 0.05% and ZWUK by 0.15%.

I find it strange that IAPD moves so much during the day here when all of its components stocks are on markets that are closed. Guessing it must be caused by exchange rate fluctuations ?.

Finally got round to doing a comparison chart for all of these ETFS:-

As you can easily see all of the UK ones track the FTSE, even IDVY does to an extent. SEDY seems to have fallen through the floor around June (if you believe this chart) and has yet to recover. Might be yahoo data though cos this chart looks a lot better.

Looks like I might regret moving out of my housebuilders and putting the money into my ETFs, they are all up very strongly today. Pre sale portfolio 0.25% higher today because of that. Win some lose some.

ATB

Pref


#223

@Ripley94 In essence, lets say the average low buy was 145.26. Market is saying, right…try get to 157 to make up the adjustment, and then gamble on us not tanking her 20% in november haha.

Im a bit too risk adverse for that. But mainly because, i see the capital chasers dumping this sooner than 12thkll


#224

So in truth, for div chasers, its minus to zero sum in theory to 157.3 (if holding for div), unless they see something in the market that changes adjustment


#225

Interesting charts.

Probably right - but HK and Singapore would only have closed an hour ago.

Yep… well I look at it that some of them are up when others are down… and vice versa… that was my plan in diversifying into several sectors/geographical areas and not just be too dependent on one.


#226

@Ripley94

to dig deeper, consider the words:

pure-applied-computational-model

sometimes such words equate to, too much ratiionale applied. However, ive never argued with their calculators, and correctly so.


#227

Like your analysis on Vod and believe you are a shorter on Vod atm. Now it passed 150-151, do u think the sentiment change? Is it’s good time to buy now?


#228

Cant really give advise @Joanne. Not qualified to. But can comment on my own position, so

Happy to see it above 150. I beleive it brings confidence to the bulls (supposed to). Markets are same as any business but sometimes with flashing digits on screen, people forget, money in money out. Bears cant gain, no more thasn bulls can, if somebody else isnt losing cash.

So, the game (if you beleive in it)

ex div and 150+, imo , trapping the market. I see 130p by month end. Thereabouts


#229

And i do always look at both sides of the market

as a shorter here, im more interested in the bulls than the bears

But i could easily be missing something. Maybe the bulls have a case for it., and will let you know


#230

@Ripley94 BABA desperately trying to open up 1-2%. premarket so far. Know the red lines i sent to you? 3% below that is now the target


#231

Thanks for your points. Will see if this is consolidated today and tomorrow.


#232

150 probably hold a little bit. Its a good confidence floor. Then see if the real buls arrive or just retail like last time. Its all you need to watch for really


#233

Well @joanne,

Lets face it as its the stock market anything can happen. But my personal suspicion is that what we are seeing here is a bit of “divi buying” (ie people buying ahead of the XD date on 22/11 with the objective of being paid the dividend). Now VOD publish their results on 13/11 and this clearly has significant potential to move the share price, in either direction TBH depending upon how good/bad the results are.

So I wouldnt conclude just because its above 150 now that its a safe buy and on the road to recovery. That may be true but it might not. Given where we are I would suggest that you at least wait till the results come out and take a view then, or perhaps buy now but set a stop loss just in case it tanks.

As ever there is no guaranteed right answer. What all VOD holders really want is whats happening to BT today, up over 9%. Can it happen to VOD ? well you never know, but with mega debts and the state of the India business still in the balance - sadly moving in the other direction is just as likely !.

Good luck whatever you decide to do.

ATB

Pref

PS Obviously you need to do your own due diligence before deciding how to proceed. Please take no action based on anything I have said. I am just as likely to be completely wrong as anybody else !.


#234

Agree there with @PrefInvestor1

Do also bare in mind, the derivative market has heavily backed this to-date, to be down in Jan19…but thats a bit away yet, and no assurance they are right


#235

This is very basic from online. My proper software for charts and derivatives blocks screen shots allowed. Where the real drill down is done on strikes etc


#236

ETF’s can guide you too, as pref knows


#237

Thank you both! Very insightful


#238

Dont forget its a forum. We could both be the two biggest losers the market ever witnessed haha.


#239

Strongly endorse what last-call said. This is just a forum, anything said here is just hot air at the end of the day. Please take extreme care, do your own research and only then decide what to do.

Pref


#240

Hi @j_westlock, Well sharp contrast in ETF performance today.

IAPD down 0.02%
IDVY up 0.02%
IUKD up 1.95%
ZILK up 2.1%
ZWUK up 0.16%

Lots of FTSE 100 stocks making big moves today. Most housebuilders up 4-6%, BT up over 10% !. Feeling the pain over the housebuilders, guessing this is a brexit related move ? as LLOY and RBS are both up strongly too.

Pref

PS Should also have said that the FTSE 100 is pretty flat at 0.06% up.