Menu
Close

Slight surprise that no comments on price collapse here?

lse:vod

#381

Stage 2 is Motley fool will then publicise one of their predictions depending on what actually happens to Vodafone shares to show how wonderfully accurate they are.
Can’t believe anyone falls for it anymore.


#382

Of course, it is a mistake to regard MF as having a fixed view on any share. It is a collection of individual pundits, much like us here on these boards. You take what you want and form your own view.

Cheers

Frog


#383

Hi Frog,

Yes but with MF I personally feel that they just cherry pick the features of the share that support whichever flavour of article they are writing. Their views are as much good as broker price targets, all pretty worthless IMHO. But then I am not easily convinced of anything much !.

I do quite like simply wall street if you’ve ever used that:-

You have to register but its free. They at least approach a company based on its fundamentals and they always look at all of the same topics in their analysis. Actually they are pretty positive on Vodafone ATM, hasnt changed my personal view of the company though.

ATB

Pref


#384

I’ve been off the II board in a while after I quit and went to A J Bell for my portfolio but great to see some familiar posters with Pref, Frog & Jack Dawson to name a few. Is Soi still around?
Anyway, VOD due to update the city on Friday 25th I believe. Any feeling for good or bad???
From what I see there remain challenges in India and Vodafone Idea are doing a fund raising to bolster balance sheet…oh and a few competitors are suing them something to do with abandoning their mast obligations.
That said I’ve seem some very aggressive deals in the UK from Vodafone so I’d hope that Europe is seeing continued turn around.
We’ll have to see…?!


#385

Good to hear from you. And, yes, Soi is still an active and valued contributor.

As for VOD it is down a bit. I still believe that it is likely to be profitable over the long term and I am losing no sleep over it. It is a core component of my portfolio.

Cheers,

Frog


#386

Hi @Footsie_Explorer,

Thanks & I’m glad to echo Fiat’s views, be it with some reservations. Frankly, though I plan to continue holding my paper losses, my view about VOD’s next update is cautious. Especially since sharp reversals from bouncing to 170+ early December. If expectations are disappointed on the 25th, we can only hope that support at 144 holds, mindful that VOD’s lowest close for years was 143.92 on 9th Nov.

A few reasons collectively may continue dampening investor enthusiasm. Growing recessionary fears in key EU market. Increasing competition tending to reduce prices & profits. Recent broker downgrades & reiterations to 125 affecting sentiment (though others target 300), including doubts about sustainability of dividend longer-term. So hopefully we’ll get further updates clarifying the sustainability of dividends.

Also, VOD’s Liberty Deal still in limbo until EU decision by 2nd May. So we’ve far from ideal circumstances shorter-term, even without macro-factors continuing to create uncertainty across FTSE.

All in all, the loose plan here remains to cut positions as profits seen & continue building a much bigger cash position. At least until outcome of next GE is known. Though I’m no Tory voter, the weakness of our current govt makes me uneasy. Whilst just the conceivability of a Corbyn govt, be it perhaps allied with SNP, makes me even more uneasy as regards having too much money staked in these markets.

So I’m hoping to continue winding down positions for a while, including reducing VOD as profits seen.

Indeed, Soi still trading regularly, though mostly on the smaller BARC+ BB. - Regards.


#387

Bouncing off medium and long supports this morning (144), but holding at the moment.
Yesterdays’ announcments re network sharing didn’t move the price significantly. Is today’s move perhaps in anticipation of a bad news tomorrow?


#388

Hi All,

Q3 trading update due tomorrow, which will be interesting. I have been negative on VOD for some time and remain so. Recent articles I have seen in various places do not look good to me, see below:-

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/alliance-news/detail/1547135184001350800.html

Two articles there about the Indian business and one about Spain. Draw your own conclusions…

Suffice it to say that my views haven’t changed, will read the Q3 results tomorrow with interest.

ATB

Pref


#389

Hi Zanshin,

Soon find out. Support just held, SP closing 144.04. But volume above average. Significant selling. Not a good sign for tomorrow, though I’ll assume nothing either way & wait for substance of Q3.

If tomorrow doesn’t disappoint & negatives are priced in, we ought to see a triple bottom reversal as evident from VOD’s chart. Then I’ll continue holding. However, if tomorrow is a right stinker with yield likely to be slashed, then in view of the sharp reversals from VOD’s previous climb to 170+ by early December, I have contingency plans.

To remind: I’m leveraged & also hold real shares. I’ve traded VOD many times successfully, booked a lot of gains + dividends. It’s been a profitable ride. But that’s meaningless now. My lowest current buy is 175+. Paper losses are considerable.

I rarely take hits, as evident from my trading history. However, if tomorrow disappoints well below market expectations, then in view of VOD’s huge debt, growing competition, poor growth prospects, etc. I’ll consider alternative actions. Those may happen quickly as I’ll need to leave my desk in the morning.

But I’ll do what’s right for ME only (so not a pointer for others to follow). I may well sell & re-allocate just those funds into a few other stocks that seem more likely to see me more than recover any substantial hit here. Either way, a big decision. - GL.


#390

This is tanking in us hours currently down 4.69%. below 19$ to 18.59$

Unbelievable… where will it end?


#391

Hi JD,
Taking on board the Lastemporers comment, it could be a rough ride tomorrow. Nowt we can do about that until tomorrow’s opening salvos.
I know that you favour holding stocks when they suddenly dive in anticipation that there will be at least some recovery. The situation with VOD is that we are exposed to a steady decsent from a fairly stable SP to a significant low. A further low based on a degredation of fundamentals could be the final straw, and I, too, would consider retiring at a significant loss to protect against further losses. But have things really degraded as much as the SP indicates? Is this a basket case company? A change of CEO, a (possibly) temporary reduced EPS, against expansion into new areas, a robust balance sheet and a settled businaess model.
To hold or sell, paper loss vs. real loss. Decisions, decisions. We each have to make our decision on our personal circumstances and objectives.
Good luck


#392

Brief update on my comment last night: though Q3 far from great (for eg. revenues drop by €0.8bn, et al), & long-term support at 144 now under serious threat, mindful that we’re at multi-year lows, whilst the yield here remains substantial, for now at least I’ll hold on.

I’ll see how the day unfolds when I return to my desk late afternoon. - GLA.


#393

Hi All,

Well good luck to anyone who has read todays VOD trading update, a veritable blizzard of numbers. Highlights from the update were as follows:-

I note that results from Vodafone IDEA (India) are not included, will be published in February apparently.

Make of that lot what you will. Didnt seem that bad to me, but I wouldn’t call it good either. Most important of all though Mr Market doesnt seem to like it much and the shares dropped initially to a touch over 140.4 though have recovered to ~142.x now (about where they were prior to the results and the subsequent spike).

My guess FWIW is that if the current 142 support gets broken then next stop could be 125 ?. Personally cant see the Vodafone Idea results in February helping when they come out given the recent news items from there. But hey maybe a hoard of dividend hunters will step in and drive the price up again ?.

ATB

Pref


#394

LSE:VOD
Key for me is the comment: EUR 5.4bn FCF.
That vs 26.7bn shares issued not in Treasury with a current div of 15.07c is just over EUR 4bn - yes, they can cover it just (and ‘better’ than in the last couple of years when it wasn’t properly covered at all) but precious little to pay down the significant debts.

So, can they, will they hold the dividend? And, if they do, what damage (lack of progress?) does it do to the balance sheet?

Regards,
ITDYA


#395

A good question. The current SP of 140 would give a yield of close over 9% if the divi is maintained, and suggests to me that the market is anticipating a cut. However, there is still more than 5 months to the next divi, so plenty of time to speculate. The persistent dive in the SP for the last year surely has to stop somewhere…doesn’t it?


#396

Hi @zanshin,

Sadly because a share is down doesnt mean it cant go lower !.

Confess I’m a bit surprised at the significant reaction to todays update though which didnt look that bad to me.

Oil + Oil Stocks + FTSE as a whole looks to be missing out on the rally in most other markets in the last 24 hours (US, Asia, Australia, Europe)…?

ATB

Pref


#397

Hard to understand that it’s down near 10% in two days when earnings weren’t that bad. 125 isn’t too far off now at 136. Glad I bailed earlier and not tempted at all to rebuy as there’s just no bottom. At most peoples averages will take 2 years alone in dividends just to get back last 2 days loss!!


#398

Hi Pref,
Indeed it doesn’t mean it can’t go lower, and it has, to a near decade low! (It would have to stop at zero, though I can’t believe things are that bad given the upbeat attitude of the results).
I suspect there is a high possibility that as a new CEO, Nick Read will consider he has the leaway to cut the divi in order to reduce the significant debt, since he has inherited it rather than being the cause of it.


#399

Hi Zanshin,

I agree. Though there continues to be strong disagreement across other VOD forums as to whether or not FCF covers VOD’s dividends, with some insisting it does, frankly, I’d be astonished if we didn’t see some divi-cut in the circumstances. Considering the yield at current closing SP of 137 is near 10%, it totally makes sense to prioritise reducing their huge debt. Such a move usually also boosts the SP.

I was away from my desk until recently since my last comment. Despite the subsequent hammering here, I won’t be selling now.

Whilst I can take some temporary solace (not much mind) that some of my other holds continue slowly recovering, not least my biggest hold, LLOY, I shall continue playing VOD with patience until we bottom out. I’ll reconsider a decision on whether to cut my stake here when we see a strong bounce. Realistically, I expect it’ll be a L/T process. But in that sense at least, little has changed for me. - GL.


#400

Well… is divi cover less than 1? ie. do earnings cover the divi payout… or does it have to borrow money to pay its shareholders?

Vodafone chose a different method of calculating that… you might ask why… as the usual one used by and applied by Investors to almost every other company gives the wrong answer.