T/A says SELL..



… by the way

Can’t say I’d have ever spotted that particular head and shoulders - which is supposedly a sign of a trend reversal and predicting a drop over the next 3 months to around @235p


Tell you something, filling the gaps in TA land sure is amazing. Since filling the gaps, it’s dropped 40p… excellent.


Not as annoying as a fall from £3 of up to 10% a few days after my confident prediction that this share would get to £3.30 within 6 weeks. The gods are obviously against me as BT line went down last Tuesday and only back up late afternoon on Friday.
Copper down hard again this morning but GLEN not reacting quite so severely at the moment.
Hard to predict a fall in copper price of around 8% from the spike upwards a little over a week ago.



The Chinese government is cutting back on credit. Once you know that, its easy to predict a fall in commodity prices, especially copper.

It’s even harder to predict what the Chinese government will do. Probably not true, actually, but we don’t tend to hear their policy announcements over here until people start looking to explain a sudden fall in copper prices or a rise in coal prices (like last year).

Chinese government is my first stop from now on whenever the sector is moving.

Since the spike up in copper price in Q42016 I think we can now safely say that the new trading range has a bottom of around $2.46/lb and a top of about $2.70/lb. Although there is a bit of a nasty trend downwards in Cu and we’re close to the bottom of that range, I can’t really see it breaking through that - not if general reports from emerging markets doing pretty well are correct.

GLEN has come back a bit anyway, I think the market has realised they aren’t ALL about Cu. Actually, all miners have come back today, the whole sector seems to be moving together at the moment. Probably a couple of big high frequency funds trading mining ETFs against each other or something.


Finally, finally my price prediction happens - BOOM! as LG would have said.
The difference is I predicted it to happen before 8th June, within a reasonable time span and the share has been all over the place since that prediction.
Have learnt from this - hope others have too. Predictions with no time specified are worth nothing but large, tradeable changes in a share price happen over a relatively short period of time. I have lost out on Anto having traded out of the share for modest profit at £8+ when it has risen almost without a pause to today’s price but it will have to rise a lot more to absorb all of the crystallised trades made.
Still holding GLEN - what a turnaround and, as it turns out, a good hedge being out of anto.


Trouble is that GLEN now has a very large leaning towards copper. See my post on the 2018 results if you’re still holding.

The good news is that Cu is back up towards $3/lb … bubbling just under anyway.


That didn’t last. The following looks set to keep some downward pressure on GLEN for a while…

Norway fund may have to offload Glencore, Anglo American stakes

Norway’s $1T sovereign wealth fund may have to sell its $1B stake in commodities giant Glencore under a center-right government plan expected to be adopted today by Norway’s parliament.

The fund would also have to sell its 2.16% holding in miner Anglo American, worth $620M.

The proposed tighter ethical investing rules would prohibit investments in companies that derive more than 30% of their revenue from coal, mine more than 20M tons of coal annually or generate more than 10 GW of power with coal.