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The conundrum

lse:fum

#1

So Futura Medical finds itself in the situation of potentially having an Erectile Dysfunction gel that both consumer health companies potentially find themselves interested in and pharmaceutical companies .

The problem for Futura Medical is that the forecast sales rely on the product initially being in prescription form (Pharma sector) and then OTC & off the shelf potentially(consumer healthcare product).

Therefore a licensing deal has major setbacks if licensing to a pharma company (they are not really built for consumer health will not be in a rush to switch to consumer health and off the shelf products (OTC is not applicable in the USA)
Meanwhile signing a licensing deal with a consumer health company has the setback in that a consumer healthcare company does not have the deep reach to penetrate the Pharma sector and sales force to raise awareness for doctors to prescribe the MED gel.

Therefore it makes absolute sense to sell the asset (something I believe will be done due to the challenges described above) once phase 3 is completed.

Potential licensing royalties that are being quoted relentlessly on the LSE Board are all well and good but they do not consider the real challenges as mentioned above. My view is that only after the discussions took place that the agendas of the different parties came to the fore.

Appreciate any other thoughts on this


#2

Good to see you still here, Aberdeen, and we need to get this BB kick started again as FUM approach what I believe will be it’s final year of existence, either through failed MED Phase 3 or selling up on successful completion. The proverbial s–t or bust IMO.

CSD seems to be dead now that Trojan have given up, and the Blue Diamond shop has now been “Onze excuses, momenteel is de shop gesloten.” ………………

http://www.bluediamondcondom.nl/

………… so it’s MED or nothing.

Will start to put more effort into finding out what’s going on here. Catch up later


#3

My only worry for the MED trials is differentiating from the placebo.

Futura said they’re aiming at the mild to moderate market but a lot of the mild patients could get arroused from putting the placebo gel on their penis.

Hopefully the strict guidelines to get on the trials should hopefully stop this from happening but you never know.

Apart from that I can’t see it failing, I mean the safety profile is really good and hopefully it still shows that in the higher doses.

My only other question is lombards strategy, when will they stop offloading shares, it makes sense to take some profit from the 7p placement though.

I have faith in this though, I wouldn’t be invested otherwise.

And it’s good to see you two back, you’re the life of the ii board.


#4

Mark - I will post some details which have put my mind at rest as far as the placebo response goes… let me type it up…

In the meantime here’s something to cheers you up…

I was listening to the presentation on full volume where the KOL was going through the different remedies for Erectile Dysfunction Patients… One of the things being discussed was some sort of vaccum device … He used the words " You enter your penis into this"

Unfortunately my 10 year old daughter was sitting on the sofa next to me. I immediately turned the volume down but she had already caught what was said and very calmly tells me
“Papa, he said a bad word and I know you’re turning the volume down now”

She must think she has a very strange father right now… Hopefully she hasn’t told anyone at school!


#5

Mark - I too have spent a lot of time evaluating the placebo response.
A few things that really put my mind at ease are as follows

  1. The phase 2 trials were powered with quite a large number of mild and mild to moderate patients. Now, bear in mind that they achieved “highly statistical significance” with this group of patients. If they had achieved the highly statistical significance with a low number of patients, I’d be worried as it still may have occurred by chance. However they achieved high statistical significance with a larger number of patients and therefore the idea that it may have been “by chance” is significantly reduced.
  2. The 0.4% and 0.6% doses will really drive an improved response with further increases in the IEF scores.
  3. The recent presentation discussed the fact that Poland had a much lower placebo response. Possibly due to better screening (maybe)… The phase 3 will be recruiting heavily from Poland which should help us even further.
  4. We now have further input from the Key Opinion Leader into the design of phase 3 and which patients to include and exclude… The questionnaire (input by KOL) used for screening is playing to our strengths.

I think considering all the above, it gives great reassurance (as much as it can, although we all acknowledge there are no guarantees in life)

Now what would we constitute success?
If we are talking about sale volumes, well the most sexually active are the mild and mild to moderate patients. Therefore it makes absolute sense to target these patients and it’ll be these patients that will drive the highest volumes of sales as they are the most sexually active…
The severe cases of ED - well they’ll be lucky to get their leg over once a month so hardly helping our cause in terms of sales figures.
Therefore coming back to the question, what constitutes success?
If FUM repeat what they did in phase 2 it would be regarded as success
If FUM repeat what they did in phase 2 but with increased scores on the erectile function scores then that’s a success. (highly likely with the higher doses). Getting a clean set of results with very low P values would enable us to submit for EU approval without the need for a part 2 phase 3.

The management are confident we’ll be successful given the thought that has been put into the design of phase 3 and the way it is being powered.

We are coming up to the end of Feb. So 5 months into phase 3.

Fingers crossed… we smash phase 3 and put smiles on men and women all over the world…and hopefully our internet historys will take a break from erectile functions and hopefully will be covered with “holidays” and “cars” and “watches” and “Eroxon”


#6

Fairly new to this share starting from 8p mark traded it a couple times on the rise, now bought back in averaging 14.9p with 147,600 shares.

Would be curious to hear your exposures to the share and at what buy in price. (Obviously if happy to divulge that info)

I would imagine a largish increase up to phase 3 data release but struggling atm to work out how soon that rise will start.


#7

I got in with a modest tranche in the PB. Still holding. Plan to top up on any future weakness in sp but would like to keep my average low. Averaging up is not necessarily a good idea but lots of potential with this lead product
Good luck , TP


#8

Agree with you to a large extent, Aberdeen, about the placebo issue.

One concern of mine, however, is hopefully the vast majority of participants aren’t in it “partially” because of having a low libido and want some kind of kick start - that’s where the placebo will bite for a rub on gel versus the oral Viagra. Viagra (apparently!) states that it’s not supposed to improve libido so don’t expect to turn into some kind of sex starved animal once the pill is popped. MED/Placebo, however, could have a “slight” effect on the libido aspect. But like you’ve pointed out, this will be unlikely over a thousand patients if indeed MED is the real deal.

Mr LOLOL. I own “well over” 250k and have only occasionally traded a small proportion (particularly when it reached a quid many years back) but after 10 years of being a shareholder I’ve always hoped (expected?) something to suddenly happen so you could say I’m trapped until the end game. I’d be devastated if I tried to profit take only for a trebling the day after for some reason or another. Oh, and my average is in the 30s anyway so I’m not really in a “profit taking” position as such.


#9

I think theres an element of comfort in the fact you dont have to worry about sell or stick when the decisions made for you.

Either way theres no way this wont rise before results are announced


#10

Those are some good thoughts… for me it comes down to the company with the best brand which one of each side would be:

RB: absorption of CSD (part 2) and the Gel into the Durex range and marketed.

Pfizer: Again absorption of the gel into the new liquid / gel Viagra, hey even a Viagra style condom.

But that’s me dreaming.


#11

I think FUM have literally given up on CSD, Lastempoer, it wasn’t even mentioned in the intro in the presentation (if I remember!) even though TPR was mentioned. Feedback from a previous AGM suggested that RB ditched CSD because they only intended a “buy and burn” (right terminology?) - after all, all a CSD condom would do would be to eat into their own already ultra-dominant market share.

Almost certain IMO that FUM will be sold on the back of MED especially as the recent presentation was for analysts and institutional investors only - what would be the point as funds have only just been raised so no placing in sight?

Parallels have been drawn on here before with Immupharma (IMM) who were also confident going into their own Phase 3 trials for lupuzor - the SP started gathering pace within 6 months of the results which were released in April 2018 (there were also several progress updates in this time), and demand was such that a placing was made in January 2918 “in response to institutional demand”. After a quadrupling of the SP based purely on hope and expectation, the SP dropped nearly 80% in one day following disappointing results. So maybe a similar pattern may emerge here starting in Spring - I suppose the trick is to get in now, then sell half your holding (hopefully for a very tidy profit) just before the MED results are released “just in case”. It looks like quite a few IMM shareholders did just that as there was a 10% dip in the week leading up to the lupuzor results, unless there was a leak of some sort.


#12

My biggest concern here is that we are being led up the garden path again(previous garden path was the Deal before P3 so no need for funding)… New Scenario of:

P3 passes, but data isn’t good enough to submit for EU Reg approval… so FUM again go back to the market to do a placing to raise more money for P3 Part 2… and want to keep the asset tight in their hands until P3 P2 completes…basically same story all over again, with more dilution, more wait and again the market will know $$ will be needed for P3 part 2 so the Share price drifts lower quickly.


#13

That’s the risk you take I guess LastEmporer, you could very well be right with what you’re saying.

I agree with Tony though this will definitely get momentum the closer we get to phase 3 results.

I’ve no doubt a lot of people will take some profit then, I will do before phase 3 results. I will keep half of my shares though then you’re kind of covered no matter the scenario.

It’s going to be one of them you could call it right or get it horribly wrong.

Get that positive phase 3 data this will rocket, if we need part 2 of phase 3 this will plummet.


#14

Volume on the days has gone from millions down to a trickle. Seems like everyones in stand by mode unsure of whats to happen next.

Definately logic would dictate hold your holding till just before results and then bank part of it just in case


#15

I think the volume has drastically reduced as the Day Trading Crowd have exited to another ‘play’ for now at least.

I think as I expect most of us think, this stock will likely rise in anticipation of good results. If a second phase of P3 is required, there’ll definitely be a heavy drop but remember our lower baseline stock price should be far higher by then.

I would guess that we’ll get a nice rise as we get into the period where people can add in this year’s ISA allowance.

I wonder if the big pharma have any way of having a 'sneaky peak at the initial clinical trials data?! People who have access to this should already have a very good idea about the likelihood of a great pass/OK pass/fail.

Don’t know if I’m being overly optimistic but to me, there seems to be an air of positivity in the management team at FUM (looking at their latest presentation to the analysts).

Here’s hoping anyway!

GLA


#16

FUM tried to create a momentum; press coverage, Proactive Investor interview, market analyst, investor day. Unfortunately due to Lombard Odiers’ offloading, the share price was unable to rise sustainable. I am afraid the momentum is gone for now and see no real catalysts until TPR100 is being approved somewhere in the next 5 months. So for now, T. Adams and I will sit on our shares and do nothing:-). We are in it until the end!

Does anybody now if FUM will receive any milestone payment from Thornton and Ross when TPR receives approval or will we receive a royalty once production and sale starts?


#17

FUM receives (a substantial) milestone payment upon approval of TPR by the UK Regulatory body


#18

If phase 3 data is good, the share price will shoot up regardless of whether we need a part 2. I think we should all assume part 2 will be needed. However if the phase 3 is good, then I believe any placing (if needed assuming funds are not sorted out beforehand) will be at a much higher price compared to 7p!!
Also if the data is good enough it opens up many more doors than what FUM found itself in when it desperately needed the funds and had nowhere to turn to and we all know Lombard took full advantage of that.

Get good phase 3 data and the tables are turned. Many more doors opened to raise funds if we needed to and the terms and conditions would not be entirely biased towards the other party…

In summary, get good phase 3 data and we will be in a position of strength regardless of whether we need part 2 of phase 3.


#19

If thats the case surely that may lessen the need for additional fund raises no?

I’d be hoping anyone thats serious about picking this up would do so after 3a if data is good


#20

Here’s hoping that FUM are confident the impending milestone payment for TPR will materialise, explaining why they didn’t go that extra mile in raising further funds for part 2 Phase 3 which would have caused further dilution.

I’ve had a look into possible trademarks owned by Thornton and Ross for TPR, and first I came across is a recent application “zeromax” :

https://trademarks.ipo.gov.uk/ipo-tmcase/page/Results/1/UK00003362158

……. but the most likely possibility is a trademark called “Dermamax” filed last Monday:

https://trademarks.ipo.gov.uk/ipo-tmcase/page/Results/1/UK00003378304

…… with the name “Dermamax” being closely associated with Futura’s “dermasys”

It’s a Class 5 substance which may cover the use of TPR:

“Pharmaceutical preparations and substances; preparations for the treatment of dermatological conditions of the skin; barrier creams, emollients and moisturizing preparations being for use in the treatment of dermatological conditions.”