I also think you shouldn’t read too much into the selling by Lombard. I think it’s either they’re having to liquidate holdings due to fund outflows or perhaps they’re reducing their exposure whilst cashing in on gains.
In the former case, a similar example can be seen by certain Woodford Fund heavily invested stocks such as Allied Minds, which have taken a real hammering (& incidentally are probably a great buy as a consequence) while Neil Woodford has to liquidate a large portion of his holdings to fund the cash outflows.
In the latter case, all FUM investors are aware that the upcoming part 1 phase 3 results will either make or break the share price. Hence, it makes sense to take some skin out of the game, especially when you can cash in some nice gains. That said, I remain convinced that the Lombard selling effect means that the FUM share price has an absolutely magnificent risk:reward ratio, where a very negative outcome means you could potentially lose the current 45p per share, but a very positive outcome means the company could potentially be taken over for a large multiple of the current share price. Indeed, it’s this risk:reward ratio that’s made FUM the number 1 pick of the Investor’s Chronicle chap.
I would guess that Lombard have a % holding target already set. Once they reach this, it’s going to be much calmer waters with a good breeze hopefully. Mr Deadeye, no need to be pessimistic- management have made mistakes in the past, but they’re intelligent and will have learnt. They’ll know much better than us, what true value FUM has if the phase 3 results are good. In this ‘good’ scenario, I believe they’d never accept a price In the range you suggest. You’ve been on a very long haul journey here, but rest assured, the destination has almost been reached!