Is it the second bullet point about a further study that’s sent the SP down?
Am out again for the time being.
It’s more the funding worry about futura. I’m guessing a lot of people are thinking a bit similar to last year.
The difference is if we get positive results I don’t think it’ll be a problem with other companies desperate to buy us out.
Futura are in a position of not knowing so they need to plan for the worst.
Looking at people enrolling to the next study you’d think they’re pretty happy with what they’ve used, I mean I certainly wouldn’t want to carry on a study if I thought the product was rubbish.
Also think a lot of stop losses probably at 40p caused a big drop and panic selling.
Was pleasantly surprised to see our stock tick upwards at the open. But then there came a sudden panic…
I think seeing the ‘dilution’ word mentioned several times brought flashbacks of our stock hitting a 6p low to some!
I think the FUM board themselves were ‘stung’ by the previous drop to 6p. Hence, you can almost feel their nervousness in the way they’re trying to ensure the market isn’t shocked by any further funding requirements.
It could be a whole different ball game this time round. This, assuming the data is good, will mean that FUM will be on the brink of a license for a well differentiated blockbuster ED medication. If the data is bad, we’ll hit new lows and funding for part 2 of the MED trials won’t be necessary. What’s the probability that the data is bad?..highly unlikely in my opinion, based on the phase 2 data, and based on the fact that 80% of the subjects are continuing.
If MED appears to be on the brink of being a $1b per year product, what value will the market put on FUM stock?! Raise a few million £s really won’t be an issue that causes worry regarding dilution. Indeed, I remain convinced that we won’t need to raise as we’ll be gobbled up.
Love the fact that we’re at the US sexual health conference in October as well- making sure that everyone knows the product that’s about to come to market!
Tried topping up with some more stock at 35p but it bounced back up too quickly! I really think today’s low will be the lowest we drop to pre phase 3a results.
Wonder if switching to Liberum may present some new institutional investors post today’s analyst meeting?
As I’ve mentioned before, the Risk:Reward ratio with FUM is mouth watering!
Really pleased with how the board at FUM are progressing this year- taking the product line forward and markedly increasing our profile. Well done Mr Barder & co!
Think we’ll see that LOAM have offloaded further?
Back in at 37.5p.
Assuming phase 3 trials are good and we need another £10 million, what level of dilution are we talking about
At 50p, it’s another 10 percent dilution
At 70 to 80p based on good phase 3 data it would be just over 6 percent.
Just stating that as we need to keep some perspective.
Off course all of this may not matter if the data is good and therefore no dilution
Big one for me:
“Patient recruitment completed in June 2019 for the MED2005 first European Phase 3 study “FM57”. This study is on track to deliver headline efficacy and safety data by the end of 2019. Patient recruitment was completed in June 2019 and at the end of August over 500 patients had completed the 12 week double-blind phase of the study with 80% of these patients having elected to continue into the open label extension to study long term safety of the highest dose.”
Looks like the study is still going on and won’t probably end till October, if they can get that rate keeping on at 80% that’s 800/1000 patients… Looks like it’s working well, if it didn’t work you wouldn’t bother, and maybe it’s not as good on the highest dose, but the rest is grand…this also will back up all the safety data.
Annoying that TRP is pushed back to q1 2020, never ending delays with regulatory’s… no wonder no start up pharma’s make it… costs way too much money to get something approved… meaning if FUM hit the nail in December it’s worth a pretty “pound”.
Top up whilst it’s low, soon as we shake off this low… the momentum will continue back up… always better to travel than arrive as they say.
I can’t see any news coming now until P3 results, just have to hope the BoD don’t do anything stupid.
Surprised there was no proactive video today?
GLA, all IMO.
I’m afraid I don’t share the optimism as some on here.
On the face of it, it appears we are getting stitched up yet again by another partner as Thornton & Ross drag their feet to February 2020 when the new information was supposed to be submitted this month. These partnerships just aren’t working.
Talking of which, with zero revenue it looks like CSD has been knocked on the head (not even mentioned) and even though it was declared non-core in a recent update, it would be nice if FUM would admit to its failure with the shareholders.
Another issue about “coming clean”. I thought it a tad naughty the “Financial Highlights” mentioned £5.63 million cash with a mention of £1.36 million tagged on re the tax credit received post period end to gloss it up. But no mention of the trade payables of £3.5 million - you had to “find” that by yourself. Didn’t like that at all - very misleading.
I digested the RNS before the open and thought it was a shocker, and was surprised the SP took all day to crash.
Finally, I don’t trust Barder to get a good deal and/or get sufficient IIs interested for a placing at a decent SP, especially with an alarming lack of support plus the Lombard overhang.
As such I sold over 150k today reducing my holding to 100k as I’ve finally lost patience and I think we’re heading back to the teens, but will retain a decent holding just in case this lot actually get a final deal sorted.
Just my take on it all after over 10 years of waiting. GLA.
FUNDING - (Slide 25) of todays presentation.
- Exploring a number of funding options including non-dilutory funding sources to complete second study (FM59)
One interpretation might be:
If FM57 study results are not sufficiently good enough to impress interested parties (IP’s), then funding for FM59 might necessitate a large placing.
However, assistance with funding FM59 might be available from IP’s if the FM57 study results are very good.
To agree to contribute funds, any IP (or IP’s) would want something in return, so cash might be provided as part of an arrangement or undertaking or deal, (for the purposes of completing FM59 successfully), as per the “Results for the FM57 trial will have an impact on these funding options” comment, (last bullet point on slide 25).
Assuming good results for FM57, Futura wants to progress FM59 as economically as possible, issuing the lowest number of shares to do so.
Interested parties want to place themselves at the forefront of companies who could successfully apply for a MED2005 license.
If a successful patent extension arrives soon, IP’s appetite will be suitably wetted, (deliberate understatement).
Somewhere in the middle is a position agreeable to involved parties.
I believe its just a matter of time before ‘you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours’ results in mutual relief, and least outlay for FUM.
Its not obvious what else ‘non-dilutory funding sources’ might be.
Good post Tony.
All bullshit aside from our views, the presentation / how it’s interpreted, the key item here in all of this, is this:
“Results of the FM 57 trials with have an impact on these funding options”
As fx has said before the science of the product will come out in Q4 and that’s what matters. Anything & Everything in FUM depends on this… if it’s sold, if there’s a cash raise, if there is a MED deal. if the company will even survive / be here this time next year. if if if… IMO the BoD are just putting everything on the table because the results could be, crap, average, good ,great , amazing etc… all will be revealed in 3 months.
I agree with Tony in the fact that the RNS today was a shocker was surprised to see it go up at the start I even managed to sell 16000 at 43p by some miracle.
The fact is we’ve all known it’s sh*t or bust with MED so has anything really changed that much from today.
If we do get positive results at the end of the year there shouldn’t be a need for a fundraiser and there should be a good chance of a buyout.
Like Fx and a few others have said more than likely they will be.
It is annoying that TPR keeps getting pushed back and back but at the end of the day all that matters is MED.
Luckily I’ve been reducing my holding before this in preparation for something like this after my mistakes from last year and now only have 80000 shares.
I do believe this will come good though and if we get positive results it will rocket.
You probably got the highest, Mark, and I got the first - a 14k sell at 42.3p. As I say, surprised it opened as it did.
I fear more bloodshed tomorrow. The nature and timing of the funding issue is obviously uncertain so FUM is extremely vulnerable to a mass sell off which will most likely swamp any support (it wouldn’t make sense to buy at this moment) with Lombard an added threat. There was an ominous sign towards close today - 4 delayed 100k trades.
I’ve in the main been a loyal supporter of FUM but of late my patience has been tested - and the TPR delay (with the possibility of being messed about AGAIN by a partner) has further damaged the credibility of the management. They may be good at R & D but they’re terrible in other aspects. Best way forward for shareholders is to sell the company for what they can get before more damage is done.
Cast your minds back.
It was Thornton and Ross ( STADA ) that was dragging their feet with filing of the regulatory dossier and it was only really filed (if my memory serves me correct) in July after all discussions had been finished and FUM had made the decision to go it alone.
Now we see the similarities again when it comes to responding to the MHRA… and it coincides with yet again another milestone.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence
It all hangs on good phase 3 data. The increased doses should (I believe) have the desired effect and show increased efficacy.
After thinking about it last night and early this morning I decided to sell out as much as I dislike it.
Got out at 29.9 first thing this morning.
Tough decision for me because I think it will come good but I was 60k down in January this year and I’ve ended up 80k up.
After thinking about it I just think we’re in a bit of a weak position, we’re going to need money for the next phase of trials.
It could go one way or the other, even with positive results, there’s no doubt someone could buy us out but these pharma companies aren’t stupid, they’ll have a strong bargaining position with us needing money.
I really wish all the long term holders all the best, FUM is a rocky ride but I’ve just about had enough for now.
I’ll be watching closely and good luck everyone!
Very interesting to see ‘real time reactions’ to the interim update. Many thanks Mark, Tony & others for sharing your trades (& the thoughts behind them).
It’s very evident that many people are very worried that FUM is about to embark on another fundraising dilution debacle.
Personally, I’m not. To me, it’s very different this time round. That difference being that the results of the phase 3a will be out BEFORE we fundraise.
The future of FUM is highly geared to those MED results. If they’re poor or even average, it will have been a wise move to sell out at this stage. If they’re excellent or very good, you may regret it. If the latter were to be the case, we WILL be in a strong bargaining position- it wouldn’t just be 1 interested party, it will be several. In this situation, the big Pharmas can’t play ‘hard ball’ thinking we need the funds to complete (as one of the other players will step in). Indeed, if the results are really good, which current shareholders wouldn’t want to ‘chip in’ an extra £10m for an asset that will be worth a large sum?
These are of course only my own thoughts on the matter & I’ve purchased an additional holding based on them.
Agreed, the responses are really interesting and informative. I agree with fx that if results are good, then funding options may open up so I remain positive, and am happy to ride the waves for the time being (although arguably, a good point to trade out of the share and look for a lower buy in point).
The delays to trp make this even more a case of all or nothing on the back of MED trial results - but I have always seen this as an all or nothing stock (albeit, based on success of CSD) and therefore exposure is limited to what I am happy to lose (a lot less then the numbers Mark and Tony are quoting!)
The interim results do read similar to past years… so I can definitely understand the drop and frustration, but fundamentally, there is progress year on year. Would be interested to know if Tony / Mark intend to buy back in at a lower price if that’s the way it goes? From the tone of Tony’s messages, I’m guessing that it may just be a case of reducing exposure to a more comfortable level.
Anyway, good luck all. It is certainly interesting watching this small pharma navigate the abyss!
Yes very interesting reading, I can’t add to these great contributions.
For myself, I have sold and bought and increased my share holding by 8%, for almost the same funds invested.
I started selling on Tuesday, unfortunately I bought some back as I thought I was being too ambitious .