Latest Investors Chronicle write up on FUM:
Any chance someone could post the full write up?
Yes, agree Aberdeen that it’s pointless trying to second guess reasons for others buying or selling. We’ve lived with it re Lombard now for the best part of a year. They bought over 30 million shares for 7p and are understandably cashing in on a fair few - I get that. In fact the SP has done exceptionally well in this Lombard headwind. And I’m surprised it’s progressed since the interims. I thought it was a poor update - I must be missing something.
The biggest worry for me was not “why” Lombard are selling as such, it’s now that FUM have come out admitting they will most likely need a fund raise and the chance Lombard would step up the selling. I was hoping a deal post Phase 3 Part 1 would provide the funds - it might still happen I suppose.
I was also hoping some kind of milestone payment re TPR - however, this not only looks unlikely but I still think TPR has hit a major problem - whether it’s Thornton & Ross or the product itself remains to be seen. I thought Dermamax might have been a possible trade mark for TPR, but today the application has been withdrawn:
On the subject of the fund raise, the true cash position at the end of June taking into account the £3.5 million trade payables was about £3.5 million. £3 million was mentioned as the outlay up to then on Phase 3, but I thought the total Phase 3 Part 1 cost was £6 million. I stand to be corrected on that. Which would mean cash resources being extremely low when going into the fund raise which they’re leaving until after the trial results are released - IMO they’re leaving it very late. I would have thought raise funds NOW whilst the SP is at least at a reasonable level. Saying it all depends on how good the results are seems to be taking a bit of a risk.
Here you go:
Futura Medical (FUM:36p), a pharmaceutical company that is developing a portfolio of innovative products based on its proprietary, transdermal Dermasys drug delivery technology focused on sexual health and pain, has been one of the stars of my 2019 Bargain Shares portfolio. The shares have more than doubled in value since I first advised buying them at 14.85p.
The investor interest reflects the huge potential commercial value of Futura’s flagship product, MED2005, a breakthrough topical gel for erectile dysfunction (ED), which is currently going through a Phase III clinical study. MED2005 has a rapid rate of glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) absorption, with first detection in blood plasma in four to five minutes, reaching peak levels in the bloodstream within 10 to 12 minutes, far quicker than any oral inhibitor on the market (60 to 120 minutes to reach peak levels) and without the nasty side effects.
After the 1,000 patients undergoing the clinical study complete their four-month trial period, they are then invited to enter the open-label extension study to assess safety at the highest dose (0.6 per cent GTN) up to the required number of 450 patients. The first 500 patients have completed the 12-week double-blind phase of the study, with 80 per cent electing to continue into the open-label extension to study long-term safety of the highest dose. This is a normal requirement for pharmaceutical products to provide additional reassurance on safety for longer-term use. Expect headline efficacy and safety data to be released by the year-end.
Futura is now planning a second confirmatory Phase III study in the first half of 2020 and will incorporate a US patient cohort (700 patients). Protocols will be the same as for the ongoing European study, but will be informed by the receipt and analysis of the European Phase III data and adapted accordingly, if necessary, via regulatory amendments. Futura will shortly be filing protocols and an Investigational New Drug Application in the US.
Discussions are ongoing with a number of interested commercial partners for the out-licensing of MED2005, although the main focus for Futura is to deliver Phase III headline data by the end of 2019 and prepare for the second, smaller Phase III study. It is usual for two Phase III studies to be required for regulatory filing, but depending on data from the first European Phase III study, Futura may explore filing MED2005 with regulatory bodies in Europe with one Phase III study, which could occur during the first half of next year. The US drug regulator has made it clear that two studies are required, so US filing will await results from the second Phase III study.
Completion of the second, confirmatory Phase III study, expected by the end of 2020, is subject to funding and positive results from the ongoing European Phase III study. In anticipation of this, Futura’s directors are exploring both non-dilutive and dilutive funding options in order to place the company in a position of strength to continue capitalising on product development and for negotiating any out-licensing agreements for MED2005. This is a sensible course of action.
Clearly, if data from Futura’s European study is positive, and I would stress that it’s not a binary event as of the realistic outcomes only one would definitely mean MED2005 cannot be launched commercially, then I can see strong demand for the shares in any fundraising. The market could be huge as there are an estimated 78m men above the age of 40 with some form of ED in the US and the EU5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom), who between them generate $2.4bn (£2bn) of annual sales for makers of oral inhibitors (Viagra, Cialis and Levitra). Also, at least 10 per cent of patients are unable to take oral inhibitors because they are on nitrate therapy. This group would benefit from MED2005, so increasing Futura’s captive market.
Simon Thompson’s 2019 Bargain Shares portfolio performance
Company name TIDM Market value Opening offer price 01.02.19 Bid price 13.09.19 Dividends Percentage change
TMT Investments (note one) TMT $163m 250¢ 580¢ 20¢ 140.0%
Futura Medical FUM £70m 14.85p 34p 0p 129.0%
Inland INL £143m 57.75p 69p 0.85p 21.0%
Ramsdens Holdings RFX £56m 165p 183p 4.8p 13.8%
Augmentum Fintech AUGM £129m 102.4p 110p 0p 7.4%
Jersey Oil & Gas JOG £48m 205p 218p 0p 6.3%
Litigation Capital Management LIT £89m 77.5p 81.8p 0.28p 5.9%
Bloomsbury Publishing BMY £175m 229p 235p 6.75p 5.6%
Mercia Technologies MERC £94m 29.57p 31p 0p 4.8%
Driver Group DRV £27m 74p 51p 0.5p -30.4%
FTSE All-Share Total Return index 6,852 7,507 9.6%
FTSE AIM All-Share Total Return index 1,023 1,004 -1.8%
Note 1: Simon advised taking profits on TMT Investments at 580c a share on Monday, 9 September 2019 (‘Takeovers, tender offers and taking profits’, 9 September 2019).
Source: London Stock Exchange opening offer prices at 8am on 1 February 2019 and closing bid prices on 13 September 2019.
Moreover, I am comfortable with Liberum Capital’s blue-sky fully de-risked target price of 137p, implying a target market capitalisation of £280m, given the product could be making peak annual sales of £500m by 2028 at an eye-watering margin, thus generating Futura huge royalties from any outlicensing deal (‘Beating the market’, 12 August 2019). I also like the potential of Futura’s joint venture collaboration with CBDerma Technology to explore the application of Futura’s Dermasys drug delivery technology for delivery of cannabidiol.
True, the unknown factor is how Futura will fund a US Phase III study, which is why there was some profit-taking after the half-year results. However, it looks overdone to me because it is clearly in the financial interest of existing institutional shareholders to back any funding round at a level that will support the current value of their existing holdings – and clearly there could be substantial further investment upside at the current level – while at the same time providing Futura with the financial strength to be able to negotiate the best deal possible with licence partners. The sums are not huge in any case as the US Phase III study will be smaller than the European Phase III study, which is costing £8m and is fully funded. Buy.
Personally, I see it playing out like this (assumption positive results):
Share price will climb on build up to announcement of med phase 3 trials
Share price will dip on announcement as results will not be as good as expectations (ie they never are - some of the results may not be clear cut etc)
Company will announce that they want to pursue part b and need to fund raise - price will drop to around current levels
I would expect funding to be a lot easier, and to be taken up quickly - share price will rise again.
At some point after this, I expect (note assumption at start) for this to go commercial, a deal will be made and the price will hopefully see new highs.
From the tone of the company, they are definitely thinking of funding phase 3 part b themselves. I see this as a positive as cheaper then part a, if sp holds on good results then less dilution and probably far better negotiating position (even now it is a good negotiating point) and therefor better result for us.
The cynic could argue they are just prolonging their inflated pay (and bonus) package, but I don’t believe this. I think they are looking towards the end game as much as us.
All imo obviously.
On read out with positive results, the risk / reward ratio changes significantly for this company.
Here’s how it’ll go.
The RNS for headline data will land a few minutes past 7am on a chilly December morning.
Tonydeadeye gets an alert on his mobile and his life flashes before him. He knows this is what his twelve years in FUM was building up to.
His heart starts beating at over 120 beats per minute and the phone keeps on slipping out of his hands due to the sweaty palm syndrome.
He eventually builds the courage to open the email and read the RNS.
The RNS confirms there was a clear sign of an increase in efficacy as the dose was increased. The RNS also confirms contraindicated patients were able to take the medication and show efficacy. The study manages to hit a number of primary and secondary end points across the spectrum of ED patients and is deemed a success.
Aberdeen, Tony, FX, Eco, zero, markmango and other long termers rejoice whilst PJ, sitting on a beach somewhere sips on a martini and thinks to himself “I told them it was all in the charts”
Lots of good points and scenarios really, anything could happen we’re all just guessing and doing what we thinks right.
Zero I’d be happy if it played out with how you say, I’d even be happy to buy back in at the 40p mark with a fundraiser when it’s clearer what’s going to happen.
I think the company will fund the last part of the trials as well it just depends at what sp, personally I think Lombard could decimate the sp up until results and do a similar tactic to last year as it’s worked so well for them.
And the last I heard PJ lived in a far far away place, staring at different charts going ‘my precious’.
Love the Tony story Aberdeen.
LO may be able to influence our price at the moment. However, one way or the other, that influence will be gone post 3a results…either we’ll be hitting lows or the stock opens up to a whole new plethora of institutional investors (& perhaps as I suspect, a bid approach).
Why will it potentially open up to a wider range of IIs?..because it’s been substantially de-risked. With the de-risk, the market cap will be closer to the final real MED value.
Re LO influence will be gone post 3a results:
Beware a possible RNS before then, announcing news of a patent extension for MED2005.
From the RNS, Monday 6th March 2017:
“This patent application has the potential to extend MED2002’s patent life worldwide through to 2038, thereby significantly increasing the opportunity for licensing partners to generate higher revenues and profits from the commercialisation of MED2002.”
LO might be expected to partake in the selling soon after any sp sprint.
Glum day for the sp so far.
Ignore the current negative stock price ‘noise’ Mr Trump. When the 3a results come out, as mentioned, no one will be able to keep a ‘lid’ on the stock price (if the results look good).
You’re right that a patent extension could possibly positively influence the stock before the 3a results. But ultimately, if those results aren’t great the extension boost would be very short lived!
GLA (not too long to wait now)
Yes, nice one Aberdeen and hopefully my status as a FUM shareholder will have been restored by then!
It’s not much fun having no FUM and some of the stock where I’ve “parked” the proceeds for the time being are quite boring. But one such stock is “Standard Life Aberdeen” (SLA) as a toast to your good self, Aberdeen!
However, my patience holds firm - I don’t mind a few pence here and there but I still think those buggers Lombard will eventually grind this into the ground. Plus of course I want that funding to be addressed. Which might mean I never re-enter, I suppose. It’ll be squeeky bum time come December if FUM are trying to negotiate a fund raiser with little left - a very weak position. I just don’t get it - someone please put a positive spin on how FUM will get a decent SP raise - the Market is ruthless.
Right now an open label is in progress. The open label is meant to be to study the safety data. However both the patients, their partners and everyone involved will know they are taking the 0.6 percent dose.
This feedback may well be coming back right now and if the percentage of positive responses is higher than the standard placebo percentage response rate then you could “in theory” make your own early conclusions from it.
Patients are already in this open label part. Might the Company know about the feedback already? And is this feeding into the confidence they are clearly feeling regarding the trials? I haven’t a clue but just putting it out there for discussion.
My own view is that funding (hopefully non dilutive) might be announced at the same time as the headline data but what do I know. I’m just putting these shares in the bottom drawer and praying it comes good come December.
Not long to go
I feel if I did buy back my 250k at a current cost of £75k, I probably could buy the same 250k next month for less than £40k. It’s like pissing against the wind buying at the moment.
Maybe PJ could tell us what the charts are saying? Earth calling PJ. If I remember rightly, he was wrong last time so he’ll probably be right this time?!
Agree with the comment about buying and pissing in the wind Tony.
Good luck with whatever choice you make.
At the end of the day as long as you make money, that’s what counts!
Don’t listen to anyone. Do what you feel is right.
I agree Tony it looks like Lombard are still selling and another couple of RNS’s saying they’ve reduced their holding will decimate the SP.
I just don’t think people are going to buy that many at the moment even in anticipation of results because of the need for money.
No doubt it will raise back up to 40s with good results but I can only really seeing this going down for the moment with Lombard/Unsure on funding.
And we’ll only know about funding once we know whether results are good or bad so it’s a big gamble, I hope it all works out for us in the end!
Mark/Tony - Just a thought. My feeling is that LOAM have tried to shake out holders since last Wednesday’s RNS.
If you miss the frisson and to keep your interest, you could put back in a small/tiny part of your profit at whatever price you fancy.
Or dust yourselves off and walk away.
I was planning to write up earlier but thought “who the hell is interested in my story”…I am only a Fum holder since december 2017 (First buying at 23,5P) and what a stress it has been for my in only 2 years!!!
I am a novice when it comes to investing, still learning everyday. I heard of FUM from a Belgian Banker who did research it…otherwise FUM would never have been on my radar. That is the problem with FUM, merely unknown company abroad. What a good PR campaign could do!
For long term investors it must have been a hell over the past decade or so!!!
Some headbrakers over the past 21 months; As a foreigner I was not entitled to participate in the Primary Bid offering. I had to buy the largest chunk in the open market (@7,18 p)…JB stating a deal was imminent whilst Lombard was selling in April last year…how confusing…what the hell were those highly paid consulants been advising? How smart is Lombard => look at Silence Therapeutics, another LO holding with which they also made a huge profit, so it is so confusing the role LO plays…why did they purchase last week? Why is TPR delayed, how much million is 50% more?
Fortunately I was able to average down to 14,35P end of last year, so I have made a 200% profit (almost 50K euro)…
What is my point now?..Well, I fucking miss it, over the past 2 years I have invested 90% of my “stock time” into reading and following FUM. I even wrote Angela an e-mail in the darkest of days, which she answered swiftly and correct. She kept me invested! I have read every post you guys make (I think a lot of people do read your interesting posts, outside the UK as well).
So, today I only have 25K shares left (was 165000) and I feel happy with my profit…but my addiction/attraction to the stock gives my some sort of empty feeling… “never fall in love with a stock” is my real problem with FUM, because the risk/reward is so exceptional!!!
The problem with FUM is trust, trust and trust…made from 25k 75k but I do not dare (unlike Daringinvestor ) to hold on until the end because I am scared that another problem will arise and I will lose my paper profit.
So I am not entitled to feel the same pain as you, but I do feel the same boringness…
My ultimate dream is to get another chance to step in the game and make the same ride once more. But I do not see that happen, because I believe it will be boom or bust when results are being presented in November/December.
To stay involved a little bit, I keep my 25K shares for now. The rest is invested in recently bought property. A piece of our house has been funded by FUM! That is why we are all in this game in the end and have fun on the way!
Miss the fun though!
Good luck with whatever you decide!
Getting back in at the right SP is just the half of the story, smashing1.
The other half (and more important half) is the current state of FUM. When the interims came out I was spitting chips to see TPR put back to February 2020, and with them saying " we expect to respond in Q1 2020 within the timelines agreed with the MHRA" it looks like the MHRA have given FUM/Thornton a whole year to respond otherwise TPR is ditched - just a guess (but a calculated guess).
I know MED is the flagship product but all these failures are worrying. Plus of course the funding issue.
So at present I’m struggling to see past the negatives, I’ve got a bad vibe. But don’t panic, I could be wrong (like in the past - remember TTT?)
The SP does seem to be holding though which is playing further havoc in my head (ie is the Market seeing it differently).
PS - Just caught your post, Pharmatom, before submitting mine. Good post. For me FUM was initially about being the ultimate multibagger and getting me early retirement, an obsession which saw me build up 250k shares. Madness now I think about it.
I agree with your sentiments i.e. lots of risk, and the track record isn’t good https://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=FUM&tab=announcements .
Am going to continue trying to view FUM through the eyes of LOAM.