On read out with positive results, the risk / reward ratio changes significantly for this company.
Here’s how it’ll go.
The RNS for headline data will land a few minutes past 7am on a chilly December morning.
Tonydeadeye gets an alert on his mobile and his life flashes before him. He knows this is what his twelve years in FUM was building up to.
His heart starts beating at over 120 beats per minute and the phone keeps on slipping out of his hands due to the sweaty palm syndrome.
He eventually builds the courage to open the email and read the RNS.
The RNS confirms there was a clear sign of an increase in efficacy as the dose was increased. The RNS also confirms contraindicated patients were able to take the medication and show efficacy. The study manages to hit a number of primary and secondary end points across the spectrum of ED patients and is deemed a success.
Aberdeen, Tony, FX, Eco, zero, markmango and other long termers rejoice whilst PJ, sitting on a beach somewhere sips on a martini and thinks to himself “I told them it was all in the charts”
Lots of good points and scenarios really, anything could happen we’re all just guessing and doing what we thinks right.
Zero I’d be happy if it played out with how you say, I’d even be happy to buy back in at the 40p mark with a fundraiser when it’s clearer what’s going to happen.
I think the company will fund the last part of the trials as well it just depends at what sp, personally I think Lombard could decimate the sp up until results and do a similar tactic to last year as it’s worked so well for them.
And the last I heard PJ lived in a far far away place, staring at different charts going ‘my precious’.
Love the Tony story Aberdeen.
LO may be able to influence our price at the moment. However, one way or the other, that influence will be gone post 3a results…either we’ll be hitting lows or the stock opens up to a whole new plethora of institutional investors (& perhaps as I suspect, a bid approach).
Why will it potentially open up to a wider range of IIs?..because it’s been substantially de-risked. With the de-risk, the market cap will be closer to the final real MED value.
Re LO influence will be gone post 3a results:
Beware a possible RNS before then, announcing news of a patent extension for MED2005.
From the RNS, Monday 6th March 2017:
“This patent application has the potential to extend MED2002’s patent life worldwide through to 2038, thereby significantly increasing the opportunity for licensing partners to generate higher revenues and profits from the commercialisation of MED2002.”
LO might be expected to partake in the selling soon after any sp sprint.
Glum day for the sp so far.
Ignore the current negative stock price ‘noise’ Mr Trump. When the 3a results come out, as mentioned, no one will be able to keep a ‘lid’ on the stock price (if the results look good).
You’re right that a patent extension could possibly positively influence the stock before the 3a results. But ultimately, if those results aren’t great the extension boost would be very short lived!
GLA (not too long to wait now)
Yes, nice one Aberdeen and hopefully my status as a FUM shareholder will have been restored by then!
It’s not much fun having no FUM and some of the stock where I’ve “parked” the proceeds for the time being are quite boring. But one such stock is “Standard Life Aberdeen” (SLA) as a toast to your good self, Aberdeen!
However, my patience holds firm - I don’t mind a few pence here and there but I still think those buggers Lombard will eventually grind this into the ground. Plus of course I want that funding to be addressed. Which might mean I never re-enter, I suppose. It’ll be squeeky bum time come December if FUM are trying to negotiate a fund raiser with little left - a very weak position. I just don’t get it - someone please put a positive spin on how FUM will get a decent SP raise - the Market is ruthless.
Right now an open label is in progress. The open label is meant to be to study the safety data. However both the patients, their partners and everyone involved will know they are taking the 0.6 percent dose.
This feedback may well be coming back right now and if the percentage of positive responses is higher than the standard placebo percentage response rate then you could “in theory” make your own early conclusions from it.
Patients are already in this open label part. Might the Company know about the feedback already? And is this feeding into the confidence they are clearly feeling regarding the trials? I haven’t a clue but just putting it out there for discussion.
My own view is that funding (hopefully non dilutive) might be announced at the same time as the headline data but what do I know. I’m just putting these shares in the bottom drawer and praying it comes good come December.
Not long to go
I feel if I did buy back my 250k at a current cost of £75k, I probably could buy the same 250k next month for less than £40k. It’s like pissing against the wind buying at the moment.
Maybe PJ could tell us what the charts are saying? Earth calling PJ. If I remember rightly, he was wrong last time so he’ll probably be right this time?!
Agree with the comment about buying and pissing in the wind Tony.
Good luck with whatever choice you make.
At the end of the day as long as you make money, that’s what counts!
Don’t listen to anyone. Do what you feel is right.
I agree Tony it looks like Lombard are still selling and another couple of RNS’s saying they’ve reduced their holding will decimate the SP.
I just don’t think people are going to buy that many at the moment even in anticipation of results because of the need for money.
No doubt it will raise back up to 40s with good results but I can only really seeing this going down for the moment with Lombard/Unsure on funding.
And we’ll only know about funding once we know whether results are good or bad so it’s a big gamble, I hope it all works out for us in the end!
Mark/Tony - Just a thought. My feeling is that LOAM have tried to shake out holders since last Wednesday’s RNS.
If you miss the frisson and to keep your interest, you could put back in a small/tiny part of your profit at whatever price you fancy.
Or dust yourselves off and walk away.
I was planning to write up earlier but thought “who the hell is interested in my story”…I am only a Fum holder since december 2017 (First buying at 23,5P) and what a stress it has been for my in only 2 years!!!
I am a novice when it comes to investing, still learning everyday. I heard of FUM from a Belgian Banker who did research it…otherwise FUM would never have been on my radar. That is the problem with FUM, merely unknown company abroad. What a good PR campaign could do!
For long term investors it must have been a hell over the past decade or so!!!
Some headbrakers over the past 21 months; As a foreigner I was not entitled to participate in the Primary Bid offering. I had to buy the largest chunk in the open market (@7,18 p)…JB stating a deal was imminent whilst Lombard was selling in April last year…how confusing…what the hell were those highly paid consulants been advising? How smart is Lombard => look at Silence Therapeutics, another LO holding with which they also made a huge profit, so it is so confusing the role LO plays…why did they purchase last week? Why is TPR delayed, how much million is 50% more?
Fortunately I was able to average down to 14,35P end of last year, so I have made a 200% profit (almost 50K euro)…
What is my point now?..Well, I fucking miss it, over the past 2 years I have invested 90% of my “stock time” into reading and following FUM. I even wrote Angela an e-mail in the darkest of days, which she answered swiftly and correct. She kept me invested! I have read every post you guys make (I think a lot of people do read your interesting posts, outside the UK as well).
So, today I only have 25K shares left (was 165000) and I feel happy with my profit…but my addiction/attraction to the stock gives my some sort of empty feeling… “never fall in love with a stock” is my real problem with FUM, because the risk/reward is so exceptional!!!
The problem with FUM is trust, trust and trust…made from 25k 75k but I do not dare (unlike Daringinvestor ) to hold on until the end because I am scared that another problem will arise and I will lose my paper profit.
So I am not entitled to feel the same pain as you, but I do feel the same boringness…
My ultimate dream is to get another chance to step in the game and make the same ride once more. But I do not see that happen, because I believe it will be boom or bust when results are being presented in November/December.
To stay involved a little bit, I keep my 25K shares for now. The rest is invested in recently bought property. A piece of our house has been funded by FUM! That is why we are all in this game in the end and have fun on the way!
Miss the fun though!
Good luck with whatever you decide!
Getting back in at the right SP is just the half of the story, smashing1.
The other half (and more important half) is the current state of FUM. When the interims came out I was spitting chips to see TPR put back to February 2020, and with them saying " we expect to respond in Q1 2020 within the timelines agreed with the MHRA" it looks like the MHRA have given FUM/Thornton a whole year to respond otherwise TPR is ditched - just a guess (but a calculated guess).
I know MED is the flagship product but all these failures are worrying. Plus of course the funding issue.
So at present I’m struggling to see past the negatives, I’ve got a bad vibe. But don’t panic, I could be wrong (like in the past - remember TTT?)
The SP does seem to be holding though which is playing further havoc in my head (ie is the Market seeing it differently).
PS - Just caught your post, Pharmatom, before submitting mine. Good post. For me FUM was initially about being the ultimate multibagger and getting me early retirement, an obsession which saw me build up 250k shares. Madness now I think about it.
I agree with your sentiments i.e. lots of risk, and the track record isn’t good https://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=FUM&tab=announcements .
Am going to continue trying to view FUM through the eyes of LOAM.
Someone/some people have left considerable ‘buy’ orders out this morning. Does anyone know of any positive share tips on FUM across the weekend’s papers, magazines? Or are LO buying again?!
There’s been high FUM volume for a while, but I don’t understand what the IIs are doing.
FWIW - I was thinking we might see LOAM trim their holding some more if we do get a rise up to news.
Staying on the subject of study completion date.
gives Oct 7 as the estimated date.
If you’re interested, clink on the study details tab and then scroll down to find the full 80 page study protocol.
It looks a bit out of date:
Recruitment Status : Recruiting
Last Update Posted : June 25, 2019
But yes hopefully by the end of the month we get a RNS on study completion, then the market will start looking forward in anticipation of results.
FX & Aberdeen, we know if P3 is good FUM will apply directly for EMA approval, do you know if in that process they check the supply chain &manufacturing of the product like the FDA does? surely for that to happen they need to have signed a deal with a partner?
I’m not sure we’ll get a study completion RNS. Phase 2 RNSs went from recruitment closes to results.
We shall see.