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Today's SP

lse:fum

#1

Currently showing as ~ -8%

Is the market anticipating an announcement for future funding tomorrow with the interim results?


#2

Yeah I would say everyone’s anticipating tomorrow’s news, personally I’m not sure whether there will be any news on funding yet. Mr B certainly needs a strong RNS tomorrow to put some faith back into the SP.

I’m at a pretty high loss at the moment but have used it as a good opportunity to average down because at this price it really should be a bargain. In theory not a lot has changed, after the AGM we knew they’d go alone if they didn’t have a substantial offer.

Also people seem to be worried about the onset time, the data from the PK results was positive and has been out for a while. The higher the GCN% the faster the onset time, hopefully with the use of higher doses they’ll easily be able to differentiate it from the placebo.

Good luck to all invested, testing times but keep the faith.


#3

Nice to see this BB coming back to life, and yes I am still all in. Looks like Lombard are creating all the mayhem and they seem to be on a dumping spree with Nanoco …………

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/NANO/13802609.html

…. and Avesoro ………

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/ASO/13802382.html

…… also on their hit list. I’ll try and find out some info regarding strategy changes, etc re Lombard, but once these IIs get going they’re aggressive and don’t seem to care in taking big hits. I remember Black Rock inflicting significant damage on FUM a few years back.


#4

Its crazy how the closer a company seems to get to the exit sign from the ‘valley of death’, how new lows seem to be tested.

I’ve come to expect very little from interims… and so don’t expect anything more than we’ve been told already. FUM have always had a ‘well if you don’t want to play ball, we’ll forge on by ourselves’ attitude - which is impressive in some respects, but does lead one to wonder where we might have been had we been more compliant (if that was even an issue) with Reckitt and then Church & Dwight…

£1.40 a share, not so long ago, wouldn’t have looked too crazy a prediction (on positive news), and whilst nothing has materially changed, that is more than a 10 bagger from where we are.

Exciting Times!

Tony - I was originally in from 2008 (or 2009) where you and PJ were some of the only people discussing this share on iii… I finally sold up last year, but have appreciated your balanced view and digging (and positivity). I was even intrigued by PJ’s charting discussions enough to buy a book or two in the early days on the subject. Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that you certainly wont be having to wait another 9 / 10 years to see what the outcome of this story is!


#5

Did anyone manage to get on the webcast? I tried but it wouldn’t load.


#6

Welcome back Tony

So, you’re one of the Sopranos? No wonder you’re so well connected!

I knew you’d still be vested :))

Was anyone able to make out any of the meaty parts from the analyst podcast? I had shocking sound quality (but am overseas though).

Thinking barring any bad news, we’ve got to be at or around a major low ‘low’. If only I had spare funds to average down!

However, I suspect we’ll get a major lift as some people start getting access to the initial Phase 3, part1 trials data (assuming it’s good).

Assuming good data is coming, this share has the biggest potential risk:reward ratio I’ve ever seen!

Keeping the faith…


#7

If the investing institutes have finished selling up, then I can imagine there being a lot of interest at these levels. I’m not going to try and guess where this will ‘stabilise’, but I imagine about 50% higher than where we are now (oops, that was a guess!).

Regarding time-frames, estimated completion of Phase 3 is towards the end of 2019. Therefore, simply assuming part 1 will take half of the allocated time outstanding, add in delays etc, I would pessimistically say that in a years time from now we will know whether a deal is made just on the back of part 1, and if part 2 needs to be concluded, then probably not till end Q1 2020 (I did say pessimistically). So based on that, apart from the short term re-rating, I can’t see a major rush for investors to come on-board. I imagine we will stay fairly suppressed in terms of sp for quite some time - not nice if your holding onto paper losses, but should be plenty of opportunities to average down (unless already ‘all-in’!).

Balance sheet looks healthy, so I am surprised that additional funding is emphasised in the last couple of news releases, although admittedly, I do not know how much phase three trials of this nature would cost.


#8

At the last AGM, they stated they had enough cash to cover part 1 of the phase 3 trials. Perhaps that’s changed a little after hiring all the ‘deal making’ consultants?

It’s comforting to know that JB & family are heavily invested themselves. He won’t want to sell the MED rights too cheaply.

At a current market cap of around £14m, some big Pharma are (in my opinion) going to bag themselves a serious bargain at some stage not too far away. Even if someone made a £150m takeover bid, imagine what they get for it! (MED, the pain portfolio, the drug delivery system and CSD500 with a 2 year shelf life).

I really cannot imagine that we’ll get any lower than we are now. But I thought this at 22p a share!

GLA