Menu
Close

Tpr100

lse:fum

#1

I’ve always thought that pain relief is a huge market but seems to have attracted little attention on here. I looks as though approval is relatively imminent too.
Any thoughts?


#2

Hi BB,
Yeah agree that the pain market is huge but I guess we are all waiting for that approval. They had to carry out some more lab work however I’m not sure about it being imminent? Maybe we might have something before the end of the year perhaps…
Once further deals are struck perhaps it’ll start featuring in more discussions.
But agree, there is huge scope especially in the states


#3

Morning AGM statement was:

TPR100 - Topical gel for pain relief

The Company’s novel topical pain relief gel TPR100 is partnered for manufacturing and distribution in the UK with Thornton & Ross, one of the UK’s largest consumer healthcare companies and a subsidiary of STADA AG. In response to Thornton & Ross’s marketing authorisation application filed in July 2018, the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has raised a number of questions requiring additional lab work to be conducted. This work is well advanced, and we expect Thornton & Ross to respond to the MHRA in September with regulatory opinion before the end of the year.

The Company has received expressions of interest from a number of parties to enable Futura to expand the geographical reach of TPR100. Futura is awaiting regulatory authorisation in the UK before progressing further.


#4

I’m guessing more focus is being placed on MED as there is a greater market hole with woefully inadequate Viagra dominating the market which is also coming out of patent.

In the good old days when Mr Barder used to reply to investor emails, he was extremely upbeat and confident about MED and although he was a tad too quick out of the blocks when suggesting a punchy numbered imminent deal, I myself am fairly confident a buyer of FUM is already lined up pending satisfactory Phase 3 results. It appears the potential suitor amongst all the ongoing discussions is willing to pay top dollar for a fully de-risked approved MED rather than take a punt with a multi million pound pre Phase 3 deal with an outside chance of failure. Understandable. The demand for FUM shares is strong despite the Lombard headwind which backs up the lined up buyer theory. If this breaks 45p in the next couple of weeks (pre end of July) then IMO it’s nailed on.

Hence the MED focus with TPR the back up. All IMO.


#5

Hi Tony, I know the above is all your own views, what do you mean by;

“The demand for FUM shares is strong despite the Lombard headwind which backs up the lined up buyer theory. If this breaks 45p in the next couple of weeks (pre end of July) then IMO it’s nailed on.”

It seems there is strong PI interest from all the news, broker coverage, paper articles / IC reports and such traders looking for quick easy 10%'s + we know Lombard are selling down, but seems there is more buys from the PI’s than Lombard seem to be offloading I get that. But what would back up a buyer theory? remember there has been no holding increases from anyone for months… so no one is secretly accumulating.


#6

Since the recruitment completion on 19th June there has been an almost unbroken uptrend with a significant MM demand to the Market despite Lombard’s background supply.

It’s probably another one of my crackpot theories, Lastemporer, and the 45p is an arbitrary higher target which if surpassed shortly will confirm mu suspicions. As for an holdings RNS, it will take 6 million + for a “new” player to have to show their hand.

As I say, probably a load of tosh, but it will be interesting to see how this week plays out - hopefully high volume with a further advance. but low volume and a retrace then it’s back to bed!


#7

At the moment I can sell 250000 shares but only buy 20000, big demand at the moment, onwards and upwards.

Good luck all.


#8

Well Tony, I remember the days and I’m sure you do, when the whole day used to pass and we’d have a couple of trades so this higher profile we are enjoying is welcome news…
Someone or some companies are definitely building positions.


#9

Yes nice to see, Aberdeen, even though that late 90k offload might affect tomorrow’s open.

Maybe another Lombard. Talking of whom I still don’t understand what they’re about. Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited are a privately owned company who are indirectly holding the FUM shares on behalf of accounts managed on a discretionary basis. They don’t directly own shares and recently they’ve released a solvency statement stating they are able to pay their debts as they are buying back 39 million shares from their holding company.

I’d like to suggest this explains why they’re selling FUM shares - but they don’t directly own any! I don’t understand it all, it’s probably me being thick because I SHOULD understand it so any help on this subject would be appreciated!

The link to Lombard on Companies House is:

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/07099556/filing-history


#10

OT)

Hey guys you like FUM like me ? Then you will love Diurnal Group (DNL.L) a brutally undervalued & undiscovered gem . Diurnal has a ridiculous low valuation of only £24 Million and over £11 million in cash , the company has already one Drug (Alkindi)approved in europe since last year ,NDA submission for US approval expected next quarter . They have another Drug called Chronocort for which they expect to submit the MAA to EMA for European approval by next quarter .Get some and enjoy the ride to 100p++ very soon thank me later

Diurnal Group (DNL.L)

Market Cap £25 Million
Cash £11.5 Million
Price 27p

https://www.diurnal.co.uk/non-healthcare-professionals/media/news/placing-open-offer-and-notice-of-general-meeting/

oFiling a Market Authorisation Application (MAA) for Chronocort® in Europe by end 2019;

oFiling a New Drug Application (NDA) for Alkindi® in the US by end 2019;

oContinuing the development of the European commercial organisation and roll-out of Alkindi® in Europe to maximise revenues; and

oProgressing licensing discussions for Alkindi® and Chronocort® in the US and the rest of the world

Martin Whitaker, PhD, Chief Executive Officer of Diurnal, commented:

“Diurnal has continued to make strong progress across its business, including the successful launch of Alkindi® in Europe and confirmation of the regulatory paths for Chronocort® in Europe and Alkindi® in the US, where regulatory submissions are planned for Q4 2019. The funds raised will allow us to progress our vision of becoming a world-leading specialty pharma company in endocrinology, in particular to support the commercial infrastructure for the further roll-out of Alkindi® in Europe, paving the way for the expected future launch of Chronocort®, and to secure partnerships for Alkindi® and Chronocort® outside of Europe.”


#11

FUM could soon be in the AIM100 due to market cap as we hit 100m.

Loopup group tanked and is now worth 75m:
https://www.sharecast.com/index/FTSE_AIM_100/market-capitalization/asc

I think it changes this every 3 months? that will help again with visibility.


#12

257,000 share purchase that was only listed at close today.

It’s becoming increasingly clear theres some stake building going on now. We had a 100k purchase the other day too. All good signs


#13

Seems FUM are referenced in a new report can’t see how much but it’s a 101 pager:

Global Erectile Dysfunction Market Size, Status And Forecast 2019-2025
Published on: Jul 2019 | From USD $3900 | Published By: QY RESEARCH | Number Of Pages: 101

https://www.marketinsightsreports.com/reports/07161360985/global-erectile-dysfunction-market-size-status-and-forecast-2019-2025?source=marketresearchjournalist&Mode=20

Can’t find a way to download it though!


#14

Well found L.E.

Though I’d guess none of us are willing to splash out $4k to read the report, the fact that the companies involved within it are listed makes it very useful.

Spent a bit of time googling each company along with ‘erectile dysfunction’ to see where the competition sits. Thankfully, in my opinion, MED (if phase 3 results confirm safety & efficacy) is the only premier league player when you take into account all factors including:

Cost
Ease of use
Speed of onset
Side effect profile
Spontaneity

Roll on the end of the phase 3a trials (I remain confident Mr Barder & Co will be hosting multiple bids should the trial data be good or great).

GLA


#15

I remain flabbergasted that none of the big pharmas took an easy ‘punt’ by buying us out when we were sitting at 6p a share! They could have offered what looked at the time to be a generous 6x multiple.

Instead, if phase 3a data looks good or great, it will unleash a bidding war IMHO as at a current market cap of around £100m, it’s insignificant to the potential peak sales of such a novel medication.


#16

I don’t think it’s as simple as that, fx2452, as any potential buyer would have to get any acquisition over a serious of hurdles and through the boardroom plus I’m guessing the plunge to 6p was brought about by these very same big pharmas not wanting to commit until Phase 3 data being available.

I do, however, still believe a deal is already lined up pending the results and the City is now getting wind of this. The SP got to 45p earlier than I expected and is doing very nicely considering how vulnerable we are to mass profit taking given the recent surge.

I’m looking (hoping!) for an even stronger interest in the next couple of months going into September, as (for once) I see FUM under-promising the timescale of the results which might be several weeks earlier than “anticipated”, therefore I reckon positions will be taken by October at the latest.


#17

Anyone want to make a guess on how we are doing for cash?

Annual report has cash at 9.16m end of 2018.

If we keep the same numbers for 2019…

Admin / central over head is 1.22m for the year - Fine no one left or joined.
RnD / paying for P3 etc was 6.04m, could it be more in 2019 or less? I’d assume same… maybe more.

By end of 2019 we would be left with 1.9m? But further money would be upfront for P3 in North America. Plus if there is more costs running the study from Jan-Sept-19 vs Sept - Dec-18, we could be at near 0 by December.

Thoughts?


#18

No thoughts here on cash? it’s probably the biggest risk, if they do another 60% dilution to us.

Just a reminder at the age of the lead team: https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/03456088/officers

Barder - now 60
Clarke - 71 this year
Ken - now 67


#19

Good to have leaders who are “of an age”, they’ve got a vested interest in the success of our main product
:kissing_heart::kissing_heart:
TP