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Warwick & Lincoln 3 wells drilling 2019

lse:hur

#183

I nearly made a huge howler by trying to sell when I should have been buying. Just as well the deal wouldn’t go through.
I missed the chance to buy a few more at 41.5 but got some at 43.3


#184

Disappointing news, but as Mr Waite on Advfn sensibly notes this morning:

“Spirit energy covers the costs of a drill which will have provided a mass of new data on a well drilled at Warwick outside of structural closure at no financial cost to the company.”

So on to Lincoln we go. Do I wish I’d stayed in cash and was able to buy in now? Yes. But now focusing on our other assets and looking forward.


#185

If you take a look at file:///D:/Lionel%20Mills/Downloads/Hurricane_Corporate_Presentation_-1Q_2019-_SECURED.pdf
it is clear that the Warwick Deep well was rather a long shot anyway; it lies beyond the Brynhild fault zone and was always likely to have lost its hydrocarbons to water pushing them up higher towards the Lincoln Crestal area (which does not look all that much better, apart from being higher). Lancaster and Halifax are both higher and more `peaky’ i.e. more likely to have captured the oil and gas in commercial concentrations.

I wonder if the two drills in the less promising GWA have been prioritised for license or commercial

reaFlons


#186

WOW almost a year since I last posted and it comes as no surprise to see the same faces posting everyday in the all together happy clappy hurricane social club and your google armchair ‘oracle’ is still trying to ‘peddle’ his non industry nous :rofl:

triple digits soon huh

hey Lionel best you provide your FLock with your password so they can all access your same hymn sheet hard Flive :man_facepalming:

sell on rumour

buy on news

9 from 10

thou shall not lose

as for Long Term Investments, Life Savings and Pension Pots on AIM ?

do me a

FLavour :face_with_hand_over_mouth:


#187

What is it about my, " Not getting good feelings about WD with the lack of flaring and who knows if the Halifax problems can be overcome" that you don’t understand?

0/10 for comprehension.


#188

Except they couldn’t drill Halifax in 2016 successfully. Maybe that plus WD will teach them how to get at it.
Even so, I think we should write to the BOD nominating Flossy for Technical director.
I’m glad they are drilling Lincoln next which, if I remember correctly, is a flowable discovery.
I wonder how long from start of drilling (re-entering???) to tie back to the AM?


#189

Have to say, on that point, particularly oil exploration, I would, in hindsight, completely agree!


#190

em were the days huh :see_no_evil: :hear_no_evil: :speak_no_evil:

and yet I see a lot of the very same people (not so much on this forum nowadays but over on LSE post iii forum upgrade) still holding and still waiting for the highly promoted this time next week triple digit pay day

24 hours is a long time in the oil patch never mind 24 months :man_facepalming:

still I’m sure its a good place for a social chat to help while away the hours or the days or the weeks or the years eh

and apparently anything goes in the old timers tittle tattle chat room :two_men_holding_hands:


#191

That is because Dr T was proved correct to drill Lancaster. Based on that success, and with the backing of Spirit, why not probe the outer limits, just in case the accumulation is even better than initially hoped. It wasn’t but it did show the presence of hydrocarbons and so the next exploratory drill is into where they may have accumulated on the downhill side of the Brynhild fault (which may have prevented them gravitating up to join the Lancaster accumulation).

To design the optimum production system, it is necessary to define the extent of the accumulation like this and hence the position of the producing wells. This is still pioneering work, every drill whether dry or not, helps to calibrate the seismic results for the broader area.

I am sorry if the above speculation offends GC Trader, I see this board as a talking shop where we can put forward our ideas for discussion. I am not an `oily’ i.e. oil expert, as I have made plain several times on this board but simply another investor trying to piece together a balanced view from the clues that I can glean from other investors and the official

Flonouncements.


#192

Yes you have to push the boundaries. The data from this well can now be analysed in great detail during the rest of this drilling campaign and put into the final data set. As previously stated the next well at Lincoln is to be drilled as a production well into an already discovered oil field. It will then be tied back to the FPSO as a producer at around 10,000 bopd. It will be the second Warwick well, likely to spud early September which will be the pivotal well. HUR should be drilling in the expected sweetspot and if that is unsuccessful we just lower our exit expectations. After three wells are drilled and analysed Spirit Energy will have to make the decision whether to commit to further drilling or drop out of the partnership. AFAIK they have no commitment yet to drill the three wells next year. It is possible but unlikely that HUR may still end up with a 100% interest in GWA.
IMHO


#193

Won’t spud until September?


#194

or second half of August


#195

Good Evening Everyone,

It’s disappointing to learn that the Warwick Deep well hasn’t come anywhere near expectations and has been plugged and abandoned. Such are the risks involved when investing in oil exploration, high risk , high reward if successful or the share price in free fall when expectations aren’t fulfilled.

However, it isn’t all gloom and doom. At the end of the RNS, Dr Trice informed us that the Transocean Leader would make the next drill on Lincoln. I’ve been reminding myself of the potential of Lincoln and, without being critical of Dr Trice, I wonder why Lincoln wasn’t the first drill of the three drill campaign?

This paragraph is from the RNS which announced the success of the Lincoln drill.

Gas chromatography and logging while drilling data indicates a very significant hydrocarbon column of at least 660 metres TVD, comparable to that found at Lancaster.

By reading through the two copy and pastes below it has reinforced my confidence in Hurricane since I believe today’s disappointment to be a temporary set back

The following link is the Capital Markets Day presentation made on 7th April 2017, full details of the Lincoln drill can be found on pages 16 & 17.

file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/7_April_2017_Hurricane_Capital_Markets_Event_Presentation_-_7_April_2017_Presentations.pdf

A further link below is the RNS which announced the success of the Lincoln drill on 18th Dec 2016

https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurricane2018tf/3942/newsArticle.aspx?storyid=14105533

Carliol


#196

Carliol, Yes and Dr T even gave an operational update on Lancaster EPS, everything going according to previous guidance, ie 9000 bpd and everything good. " Production operations remain in line with guidance"


#197

Hello Bobsson,

I’ve always found the market over reacts to bad news and takes a companies share price down by a ridiculous amount. Today has been a good example of how the markets reacts to bad news.

And the bad news hasn’t cost Hurricane a single penny! I wonder if the market knows that Spirit are paying the full cost of the Warwick Deep and the two further wells to be drilled?

I reckon it’s the markets reaction to naturally fractured basement reservoirs simply because it’s a new method of oil exploration on the UKCS.

I haven’t a clue how the market will react tomorrow but with progressive production from Lancaster and the Lincoln drill commenced I would assume today’s disappointment will become a fading memory. Also I’m sure ( hopefully) that Dr Trice will have something new for the markets to focus on during the CMD presentation on 11 July 2019.

Carliol


#198

Let’s hope they have saved a good RNS for tomorrow.


#199

NTS - don’t be such an optimist!!


#200

Looks as if the rig is moving this weekend, three anchor handling and other vessels contracted for the move. Should see the spud of the Lincoln well around 12th July.


#201

With that depth of oil and no obvious closure between Lincoln and Warwick Deep, it may have been reasonable to see if the accumulation extended that far. It clearly did not and so there would seem to be some form of closure, whether due to the strata or simply an insufficient fracture connection, compared with the GLA, it is clearly far less

Flolded


#202

Hello Floss,

Pleased to see we have a blue finish to the day. Up 2.77% to close at 43.84p.

I can’t see the logic if drilling the Warwick Deep when there was the outstanding success of Lincoln with a " very significant hydrocarbon column of at least 660 metres" It doesn’t make sense to me to go out on a limb when there is a dead cert just sitting waiting to be developed. But then again, when did logic ever apply to oil exploration, I can see where you’re coming from and I can understand why Dr Trice decided to drill the Warwick Deep.

I realise it’s easy to be wise after the event but I still fail to see why Lincoln wasn’t drilled first.

I wonder what input Spirit had in making the decision to drill the W D?

Carliol