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Warwick & Lincoln 3 wells drilling 2019

lse:hur

#203

Yes it does seem a bit odd but they already knew the 600m oil column at Lincoln was outstanding and even if they had started production there, they would still have wanted to drill WD as the site of a second producer at a decent distance. So the question was of when rather than whether to drill WD.

In view of the need to firm up the FFD, it may have been judged better to check if the Lincoln oil extended as far as WD i.e. was the GWA a sleeping giant which would have needed serious provision in the FFD pipeline or was Lincoln a stand-alone accumulation hence far more easily provided for alongside the GLA which will presumably have a far larger

Flow


#204

Carliol/Floss

Some folk have posited WD was drilled first as the higher risk/reward play and so to provide key reservoir data in that area seems to make sense.


#205

Good Morning Albi 1,

Lots of pros and cons about which well should have been drilled but we are where we are and what’s happened has happened.

However, I’m still of the opinion that Lincoln should have been drilled first simply because of the oil previously found there. Also, in these cash hungry days Lincoln would have been quickly monetised.

Hope you are well from a sunny and breezy Cumbria.

Carliol


#206

But if there is a big bad wolf lurking outside, you/he might want to check the larder before you reach a

Flompromise


#207

Its also possible that WD result may influence the siting of Warwick Shallow, no anchors laid there yet afaik. The early drill of WD gives more time for data interpretation generally, did they just drill in the wrong place? They found oil at WD just not in commercial quantities, is what they were looking for somewhere else? Will they have another go next year? If WS comes in and Lincoln is as good as we expect then we have two large oil fields on GWA, or is it one giant field which WD failed to confirm?
I am sure HUR would like to have spud the Lincoln well prior to the CMD on the 11th July, positive vibes and all that.


#208

If you’re going to drill two wells in a reservoir, then it makes sense to drill the deeper one first, as that will give you info all the way down for the shallow one, whereas the other way around won’t.


#209

Good point well made if you are saying that it was, say, BP who asked them to do it as they are ok about Lancaster and Lincoln and know about the Halifax problems.


#210

Hi Gents,
I am a LTH of this share. Could anyone clarify what the details of the Lincoln well are and where that will leave us after it spuds and {maybe} comes good? What was the expected production from This well?

Cheers


#211

Hi All,

It’s good to see some confidence coming back to Hurricane. The share price closed at 44.74p, up 2.05%, with an intra day high of 45.16p. I realise we are a long way from where the share was recently but at least we’re on the up again.

Also the Price of Brent Crude is currently up 2.37% at $63.88 a barrel. The poo is volatile at the moment. We never know where it is heading and for what reason. ROPEC don’t appear to be able to make their minds up about production levels. This makes me think the once powerful OPEC is slowing losing it’s grip on oil prices.

The first cargo of oil from Lancaster was announced with an RNS on 18th June 2019, it’s going to be interesting to see when the next cargo of oil will be lifted from the Aoka Mizu.

I’m looking forward to the CMD on 11th July 2019 when Dr Trice will no doubt be providing some information on how the two wells on Lancaster are performing.

Carliol


#212

Hi folks,
Can someone please clarify what the expected production was from the next wells to be drilled and what your estimate would be on the SP thereafter if the Wells produce what was expected?

Many Thanks


#213

I can’t remember but it can’t be much different to Lancaster.
As for the SP, who knows if that is assumed and already in the SP???


#214

squinn, HUR hope to produce 10,000 bpd from the Lincoln well. The well will be tied back to the FPSO. The FPSO currently has capacity for 30,000 bpd, but upgrade work has probably already started to increase the capacity to 40,000 boepd, this includes exporting commercial gas into the West of Shetland Pipeline. Production from the Lincoln well will be limited to 10,000 bpd just as the two Lancaster wells will be limited to 10,000 bpd each. The two Lancaster wells will each produce up to 20,000 bpd and I see no reason why the Lincoln well will not also have capacity for 20,000 bpd. Production is limited because HUR are a) testing the performance of the wells, b) constrained by the capacity of the FPSO. I also cannot see why the Warwick shallow well will not be completed to have a potential capacity of 20,000 bpd.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#215

Many Thanks bobsson for the detailed reply, this give me more confidence in the SP and in which direction it could (should!) go. We have excellent assets I believe and I think the market has overreacted to the negative news on WD. Let’s hope when we have production over a decent period of time from all wells stated the market will overreact, but in the direction we want it to! There is a reason I never sold out on first oil, even with the guarantee of a good profit. I think this share could head into the 70s and a little higher being conservative when we have steady production. Do you have any thoughts on where the share price could go and do you belive Malcys 100p valuation is still achievable?

Thanks Again


#216

Hi Carliol

Yes, lots of pros and cons. Some good points made on here, particularly re. data collection.

Survived 44 degrees in the recent heatwave in France, up to Northumberland next weekend - looking forward to the cooler weather and first trip to Kielder.

Re. SP / general nerves, I’m just continuing to hold and see what the next 12 months bring. Fortunately I sold a little back at 57p so not overstretched at the moment!


#217

Take midgie repellent to Kielder!
And look out for the Ospreys.


#218

squinn, I am 4% up on HUR I have just checked, last week I was 20% up? I have no clue where the share price will go because markets are illogical. My logic is that Hurricane Energy have found vast new oil and gas fields on the UKCS, oil in such quantities that many expert broker and investment houses give estimates of potential share price of around £3.50. Our activist (passive in the case of HUR) investor Crystal Amber would want at least £2 for their shares. The question is as you point out, will these reservoirs perform and produce the oil consistently at high volumes over time. That is what the EPS is all about. The performance of the EPS is the critical factor in play. The market has overreacted in a negative way to the WD disappointment, but should also overreact on the upside when Lincoln comes in. It is the third well - Warwick shallow which is the vital drill of the three, if that strikes oil HUR are in a tremendous place, but it may take a while for the market to realise it. In the meantime as soon as the share price hits the mid and upper 60s you can expect lots of profit takers as the mid 60s are tough for HUR sp to hold and break. Watch the EPS, performance at Lancaster is key, if production is up to 20,000 bpd by December I will consider the concept works. As always with share prices there will be barriers, the £1 mark is obviously a barrier, so if thinking of selling for £1 why not settle for 95p?
These are a hold for me. (cannot afford any more).
IMHO DYOR NAI


#219

Good tip Ash, thanks! Midgie’s love me.


#220

Thanks Bobsson, I agree with all you say. I think holding our nerve along with the share is the bets thing to do.

Cheers


#221

The WD drill to news took c72 days.

Would I be correct to think that, the Lincoln Crestal drill should complete in a quicker time frame than this is all goes well?


#222

Good to cycle round, 26 miles on good track.