Warwick & Lincoln 3 wells drilling 2019



230p would be even nicer but our desires are not going to influence the SP (unlike Brexit for instance); so do you have some rational basis for your choice of 130p rather than my 230p or is it just that your desires are much more



I ‘liked’ your post, before I found out tonight that you’re just ‘Armageddon’ or one of your many previous pseudonyms on here. Flagged as spam - again!


Funny, had a similar suspicion after I replied, I thought the histrionics were similar.


Interesting post from Gypsum this morning on LSE at 08:19. What do folk on here think?

"The background to this question is contained in two posts I made on the GKP board on 13th January 2019 (refer post at 15:45 then 15:46 in my posting history) and relates to a comparison between Competent Person Reports (CPRs) at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Hurricane Energy (HUR). I questioned why there is A FACTOR OF 10 difference between the 0.4% fracture porosity used for GKP’s Shaikan field and the circa 4% fracture porosity assumed for HUR’s WOS basement fields. Specifically for HUR, RPS Energy CPRs dated May 2017 (Lancaster) and December 2017 (Halifax, Lincoln, Warwick, Whirlwind and Strathmore) incorporated ‘Best Case’ fracture porosity values of 3.952% (Lancaster), 4.2% (Halifax), 3.65% (Lincoln & Warwick) and 3.8% (Whirlwind).

With regard to the absence of flow in the Halifax well, I posed the question “if fracture porosity really is of the order 4%, is ‘granite paste’ a plausible explanation for why an 800+ metre section failed to flow from the DST in well 205/23-3A?”

And now concerning the recent Warwick well result RNS which indicated that ‘the well intersected a poorly connected section of the fracture network within the oil column. The well did not flow at commercial rates producing a mixture of drilling brine, water, oil and gas’, it is now evident that either the fracture porosity is not of the order 4%, or, perhaps of greater concern, that water and gas are also mobile in the oil column? More detailed information on the Warwick DST results is needed to determine which factor (or both) is more critical.

The fracture porosity value is CRUCIAL because (a) it is DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the calculated reserves/resource volumes, and (b) it greatly impacts the recoverable volumes and rates.

Perhaps someone at the CMD today would be kind enough to ask Dr Trice about his current thinking on fracture porosity - in light of the Halifax and Warwick well results."


You argue a very cogent case but the fractures produced by tectonic deformation will obviously depend on the degree of deformation (as well as the tensile strength of the granite). The Rona Ridge has good porosity because it is abruptly folded and so the granite on the outside of the fold has to stretch'. Not being chewing gum or plasticine, the only way it canstretch’ is to fracture and allow the resulting gaps to accommodate the extra distance needed on the outside of the curve.

However, although that process will produce a few wide fractures, there is something else going on because the granite is fractured on a much smaller scale as well. We now need to think of earthquakes. We have all seen pictures of the cracks and fissures produced by earthquakes but now imagine the `earthquakes’ which must have accompanied the vast uplifting and twisting of the rocks that we see in exposed strata; there must have been many sudden shocks propagated through the earths crust and these pressure waves have alternate positive and negative pressures. Where the negative pressure exceeds the tensile strength of the rock, it will fracture thus producing the fine porosity that may eventually fill with oil where it ends up above a sandstone reservoir.

Obviously, different places will have rocks with different tectonic histories apart from different tensile strengths but seismic testing can reveal very little of this. Even drilling must be tricky as you need to know what the rocks looked like before a drill penetrated them. However, Dr T has a wealth of experience in this field (even negative results add to experience), so I am a happy



Morning Floss

Some deep geology there! Not my argument but Gypsum’s, a poster on LSE this morning.


Rig now anchored over Lincoln, well should spud in next two or three days. So RNS on Friday or Monday.


RNS. As expected the Lincoln Crestal well was spudded today. Lots of oil in the Lincoln field so this well should have good production rates and provide valuable EPS data to assist the Full Field Development plan.
Good Luck HUR


Spirit Energy going up for sale soon?


As previously posted, I expect Spirit Energy will be the subject of an IPO on the LSE. Whether Centrica want to go the trouble and expense to do so is another matter. They may just sell to private equity who will float Spirit along with Bayerngas within a couple of years when GWA is proven giant field.


Apologies, did not see these recent messages when I posted mine just now.