Warwick & Lincoln 3 wells drilling 2019



230p would be even nicer but our desires are not going to influence the SP (unlike Brexit for instance); so do you have some rational basis for your choice of 130p rather than my 230p or is it just that your desires are much more



I ‘liked’ your post, before I found out tonight that you’re just ‘Armageddon’ or one of your many previous pseudonyms on here. Flagged as spam - again!


Funny, had a similar suspicion after I replied, I thought the histrionics were similar.


Interesting post from Gypsum this morning on LSE at 08:19. What do folk on here think?

"The background to this question is contained in two posts I made on the GKP board on 13th January 2019 (refer post at 15:45 then 15:46 in my posting history) and relates to a comparison between Competent Person Reports (CPRs) at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Hurricane Energy (HUR). I questioned why there is A FACTOR OF 10 difference between the 0.4% fracture porosity used for GKP’s Shaikan field and the circa 4% fracture porosity assumed for HUR’s WOS basement fields. Specifically for HUR, RPS Energy CPRs dated May 2017 (Lancaster) and December 2017 (Halifax, Lincoln, Warwick, Whirlwind and Strathmore) incorporated ‘Best Case’ fracture porosity values of 3.952% (Lancaster), 4.2% (Halifax), 3.65% (Lincoln & Warwick) and 3.8% (Whirlwind).

With regard to the absence of flow in the Halifax well, I posed the question “if fracture porosity really is of the order 4%, is ‘granite paste’ a plausible explanation for why an 800+ metre section failed to flow from the DST in well 205/23-3A?”

And now concerning the recent Warwick well result RNS which indicated that ‘the well intersected a poorly connected section of the fracture network within the oil column. The well did not flow at commercial rates producing a mixture of drilling brine, water, oil and gas’, it is now evident that either the fracture porosity is not of the order 4%, or, perhaps of greater concern, that water and gas are also mobile in the oil column? More detailed information on the Warwick DST results is needed to determine which factor (or both) is more critical.

The fracture porosity value is CRUCIAL because (a) it is DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the calculated reserves/resource volumes, and (b) it greatly impacts the recoverable volumes and rates.

Perhaps someone at the CMD today would be kind enough to ask Dr Trice about his current thinking on fracture porosity - in light of the Halifax and Warwick well results."


You argue a very cogent case but the fractures produced by tectonic deformation will obviously depend on the degree of deformation (as well as the tensile strength of the granite). The Rona Ridge has good porosity because it is abruptly folded and so the granite on the outside of the fold has to stretch'. Not being chewing gum or plasticine, the only way it canstretch’ is to fracture and allow the resulting gaps to accommodate the extra distance needed on the outside of the curve.

However, although that process will produce a few wide fractures, there is something else going on because the granite is fractured on a much smaller scale as well. We now need to think of earthquakes. We have all seen pictures of the cracks and fissures produced by earthquakes but now imagine the `earthquakes’ which must have accompanied the vast uplifting and twisting of the rocks that we see in exposed strata; there must have been many sudden shocks propagated through the earths crust and these pressure waves have alternate positive and negative pressures. Where the negative pressure exceeds the tensile strength of the rock, it will fracture thus producing the fine porosity that may eventually fill with oil where it ends up above a sandstone reservoir.

Obviously, different places will have rocks with different tectonic histories apart from different tensile strengths but seismic testing can reveal very little of this. Even drilling must be tricky as you need to know what the rocks looked like before a drill penetrated them. However, Dr T has a wealth of experience in this field (even negative results add to experience), so I am a happy



Morning Floss

Some deep geology there! Not my argument but Gypsum’s, a poster on LSE this morning.


Rig now anchored over Lincoln, well should spud in next two or three days. So RNS on Friday or Monday.


RNS. As expected the Lincoln Crestal well was spudded today. Lots of oil in the Lincoln field so this well should have good production rates and provide valuable EPS data to assist the Full Field Development plan.
Good Luck HUR


Spirit Energy going up for sale soon?


As previously posted, I expect Spirit Energy will be the subject of an IPO on the LSE. Whether Centrica want to go the trouble and expense to do so is another matter. They may just sell to private equity who will float Spirit along with Bayerngas within a couple of years when GWA is proven giant field.


Apologies, did not see these recent messages when I posted mine just now.


Previous Warwick Deep well experienced drilling problems on the way down and was not commercially successful. The second and current Lincoln Crestal drilling is meant to be a relatively straightforward well to be drilled into a previously discovered large oil reservoir. The well is to be completed, tested and suspended as a future production well. Nothing is going to go wrong with this well is it?


Reading through the company announcements following the Warwick Deep well result there has never afaik been any formal mention of any drilling problems along the way? Did they ever mention there had been a side track?


I never saw anything official about problems and if they are having to go fishing again now I doubt they will say.
They do seem to be prone to things going wrong since the moment the AM let Dubai and ran into power problems.


Hi Gents,
When we say go fishing again what are we referring to and what exactly do you mean? The Lincoln well that’s supposed to be fairly simple and straightforward. When should we expect to hear results that this well is commercially viable. I was under the impression that this was already a previously discovered reservoir and its just a case of drilling into again and producing?? Can anyone shed some light on this and explain our situation in more detail. Thanks for your time.


Fishing is where they get something stuck down the hole and have to fish it out.
Pretty poor if this is a previously dilled well, especially on top of poor clean-ups and casing issues on WD and Halifax before that.
Is it Petrofac doing the drilling? If the rumours are true they aren’t exactly covering themselves in glory.


Thanks for that Ash. I just really hope is Lincoln is a success and that the share price reflects it. What is your general opinion of where this share is headed? I think we are undervalued but there is still so much risk involved that I’m still rather wary… Maybe should have sold at first oil… But then, there is always the possibility of great things to come. What was the total recoverable reserves again from Lancaster can anyone remember? Cheers folks


I think others here may be able to help you more with this one.

The expected future SP guesses were probably based on everything being hunky dory but now reality has crept in.

We lost the big one, Halifax a couple of years ago. Will the data from that mean that there is a good chance of getting it on stream? Who knows.

WD was a huge disappointment. Will another drill in a different place and angle result in success, after all a chance of success estimate in the 70s is extremely high in the O&G business? Who knows.

Hopefully Lincoln Crest will deliver so what would that give for a current SP based on LC + Lancaster?
It may mean that at the moment the SP is fair but someone else will be better able to put a proper figure on that.
I used to think there was a fair chance that the SP could go to £5 but not anymore.
And I have no idea what my sellout SP will be.


Someone is suggesting that the fishing has been successful and good news is imminent.


Great info there Ash. I really hope your last post is true. I think if we were to hit the 55 range again I would be out. You would think that any good news on Lincoln Crestal will boost the share price somewhat. I think all we can hope for best case in my opinion is around 70p. Something pretty special would need to happen to get us above 100p at this stage. So the good news is imminent on Lincoln then? Has this been posted on another BB? It’s so difficult to decide what your sellout will be as it’s such an uncertain industry to hedge bets in. When you say drilling WD in a different place and at a different angle make a difference… Has there been any whispers of that at all? Thanks again for all the info and opinions you’ve given. Nice to talk to fellow investors and find out if they are thinking along the same lines as myself!

Cheers Again