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Warwick & Lincoln 3 wells drilling 2019

lse:hur

#323

Wise words.


#324

I would not be surprised if HUR and Spirit announce that a tie back to the Solan production facility will form a GWA early production system, or first part of the full field development, with a fpso to be commissioned later on. They would need to negotiate for a minimum of 20,000 bpd, with flexibility to increase this if PMO are not fully utilising the facility.


#325

Who knows? So many potential ways this could play out. So far the Board have proved canny in their decision making, I don’t see them making any wrong moves now - but never say never eh?


#326

In the hands of the rocks


#327

After yesterdays rumour of an oil strike article and HURs subsequent RNS which seemed to me to suggest that - yes we have struck oil but only a DST will reveal whether it is commercial or not, we have time to ponder the consequences of the speculated huge oil find. HUR are now talking of developing super giant oil field(s) both GLA and GWA should be capable of producing in excess of 5 billion barrels of oil. Remember HUR only have 50% of GWA it is a standalone segment of the business, I think Spirit were committed to GWA FFD after the Lincoln Crestal well result, this will just reinforce that. Success at Warwick West will have more impact on Spirit as a company, a huge oil strike would be a game changer regarding the sale of Spirit, the selling price will rocket and the possibility of an IPO will no doubt be discussed again, however as we know the oil industry is unfortunately currently perceived by many as an unethical investment.
There is going to be lots of big news from HUR before the end of 2019, and I think key to a quick win will be to get the Lincoln wells tied back to the Solan platform for minimum 20,000 bpd production (10,000 net to HUR).


#328

See my post above for my views on the Spirit sale. Thanks to bocase on other bb for the link.


The formal sale process of Spirit Energy has started with a view to completion by the end of 2020. By the end of 2020 there should be five wells either completed or ready for completion as producers. One of those wells should be producing around 10,0000 bpd and tied back to the FPSO on GLA. The article above appears to rule out an IPO, and a sale prior to an independent reserves report on GWA following the 3 well 2020 campaign could prove to be a bargain for the buyer.
I cannot see that Spirit management will be constrained in running their business by the sale process, at least I hope they are not. The rig for GWA 2020 is booked and drilling due to start in February 2020.


#329

Thinking further, I dread the consequences for HUR, especially short term, of Spirit dropping out of the GWA joint venture. Perhaps another reason/factor behind a subdued share price?


#330

I think they have done their job already


#331

Signs are lining up that DST is commencing … keep an eye on safety vessels in attendance and others keeping their distance tomorrow!


#332

Maybe they have to get the offload out the way before they can start.


#333

Another £28 million banked (450,000 x $62 approx). Fair enough, worth waiting for!


#334

The fast rescue RIB was deployed yesterday and there are two out today. So my guess is that Drill Stem Testing is ongoing. May see a flare at the end of the week or this weekend, so RNS likely next week rather than this. Actual oil production numbers is a guessing game with HUR not releasing regular production numbers, however Dr Ts lecture on the 28th is a good place to watch for an up to date number. A 7th lift in around 20 days time would indicate to me production is up around 17 to 20k bpd.


#335

Firstly, Dr T will not be releasing any market sensitive information during his lecture, such as production figures.

Secondly, the Environmental Statement submitted by Hurricane, to the EA, suggested a parcel size of 500k for each off load. Apart from the first off load all the reported figures have been approx’ 450k, why do you think that Hurricane will off load 340-400k, bearing in mind that the FPSO can store 600k and there must be an additional cost for running shuttle tankers half empty.


#336

What happened to the exchange rate between $ and £? Where do you get your PoO?

No one cares what they bank!

Try 450,000 x ($61-$22{Opex in 2019}) = $17.5m profit.


#337

OK Ricfle, Lets have it then, how much oil has HUR produced in 2019 and provide the link and/or authority for your number.

Don`t bother. I will answer for you, you do not know and have no authority for saying so.

What is in the public domain, and is bound to be confirmed by Dr T on the 28th is the approximate production numbers to date for HUR, and that is not market sensitive. The introduction to the seminar states over 2 million barrels produced.
The FPSO will never hold 600k barrels of oil, if it does then something has gone wrong and production would cease. Given the vagaries of the Atlantic margin weather HUR will offload long before the AM is full, which is why HUR intend to offload every 19/20 days in 2020 (public domain).

You have history Ricfle on other bbs and you have, and are rubbing people up the wrong way on this bb.
Stop. Nothing more from me


#338

If you look at the latest presentation page 15 you will see the latest lifting from first oil 17 Sept, total 1.5 m include the 200k per-first oil and you have 1.7m for the first 4 lifts. Compare this with Dspp’s post of the 18 October 2019:

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796&sid=4b3dd07d22acb1d49a83c62ca44e2cda&start=720

You will see the figures are spot on.

We also know that the 5th and 6th lifting will be before DR T lecture, so the production figure is going to be 2.6m barrels. As Hurricane have not released this figure to the market they will not be releasing it at a lecture, there are rules.

[quote=“bobsson, post:337, topic:1146440”]
The FPSO will never hold 600k barrels of oil

Please find a link to Bluewater date sheet:

Clearly page 2 give a capacity for stored oil as 604k barrels.

A history of what? Not a history of getting it wrong, or a history of talking rubbish, or a history of misleading people, or a history or writing a load of tosh and thinking it is gods gift to investing. If you or others ramp it up, put it down, or just write twaddle I am going to pull you on it. This is a discussion board, not a HUR investors therapy group, get use to it. If being told you are incorrect rubs you up the wrong way, think how it will feel when the SP goes against you and you lose money by being wrong. Much better to be told beforehand.

Now I have politely answered your questions, how about you answering my questions, where do your production figures come from, why would Hurricane unload the FPSO when only half full (340k), come on justify your post?


#339

Ricfle, OK just one last reply to you.

For your authority on the production numbers you refer me to a poster on another bulletin board who has provided an estimate, this is not an official authority, I know the company have produced in excess of 2 million barrels of oil, (it is confirmed in the introduction to Dr Ts lecture on the 28th) I am very happy with that, and happy to receive official figures from the company due course.
I know the AM holds 600,000 barrels of oil! The point I am making is that it should never hold that amount because if it did production would have to stop because it could not hold any more and the company could not physically store any more produced oil! HUR will offload long before the AM reaches its storage capacity because adverse weather may mean they cannot offload for a number of days with production due to increase to over 20,0000 bpd soon it only takes five days to produce 100,000 barrels.
Take care.

edit: word production replaces drilling


#340

Thank you Ricfle, I stand quite rightly corrected!


#341

“Stop drilling “ because the AM is full. What utter nonsense.


#342

Stop producing oil, the AM is not a drill ship!