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Why Barclays is a sell! Big questions that are ignored

lse:barc

#1

Let´s get back to banking & make this BB about banking & not a bingo BB.

The bulls on here fail to answer one very serious question, namely first about central bank. Yeah! Yeah! Yeah, Barclays is a buy. I have no idea what I am talking about but I will produce a chart to make my argument look good.

“Can central banks return to a time when economic and monetary policy conditions could diverge among countries and major currencies?

Does a centralised globalistic, central banking system actually work (which we have now)? You speak about global economic hegemony (colusion amongst all central banks) but does this end in catastrophic failure? Failure of the € US$?

Big question for little kids!


#2

More doom and gloom from el Racano!

Frog


#3

Hi Fiat,

It’s as if now that ii’s suspension has ended, SR needs to make up for lost time. It is of course the usual mix of highly selective, debatable facts & claptrap.

To be balanced, IMO, since former PM May’s resignation, mindful that she always wanted a Brexit deal, it’d be sensible to now augur caution re all UK banks since Johnson took over. A look at BARC’s chart shows that it fell to closing lows of 127.20 in June 2016. A No Deal could see a return to similar lows. At least initially. However, the advice to sell BARC shares or any bank at loss in the current climate, during what are likely to be relative lows, seems the usual nonsense best ignored. - Regards.


#4

Other than regardless, when was the last time you saw a bull on here with regard to UK banks?


#5

You have just got one with, Jack Dawson - what are likely to be relative lows, seems the usual nonsense best ignored. What the 11th consecutive year of a bearish trend.

The big question is do central banks have much control of events? Can an economy function with next to 0% rates? You have big warning signs of a major crash ahead.

Moreover, what bulls constantly fail to ignore is the incredible rise of gold. This is looking like a 1980 scenario. The only way to stop it is increasing % rates but Trump, has ordered the FED to cut rates by 1%. There are no more tricks in the hat. There is only so much money you can print before this has a negative effect.

Even old Buffett, has gone quiet running up huge surpluses. You have to discuss gold, which most of you cannot do because many of you live in half baked worlds.

It would appear iii missed me, I am one of a very few posters that brings sanity that talks about real world events. Britexit might well be catastrophic for the EK but what about the EU itself? You have a Spanish banking system heavily exposed to South America, Germany, France & Spain heavily involved to the health of the Italian debt structures.

Absolutely no one wants to debate the points I make. Yet, no one wants to take me on with physical gold any more! The only asset that has never traded at zero!

Good luck boys the storm is coming.


#6

Sara,

Typical lack of balance, no objectivity (as evident in your posting history) & a bearish propensity for over-dramatisation isn’t most people’s idea of sanity. You’ve been posting the same gloom ‘n’ doom messages, with slight variations, for years now.

Whilst Gold is indeed at record highs due to weaker dollar, growing tariff wars & fears of global recession, that doesn’t mean to say that the only refuge is Gold. Some of us also hedge our long positions as evident on other BBs.

Also, there’s little logic in your advice to start selling stocks at significant loss when they’re already at long-term lows, to then jump into Gold at record highs. Over time, Gold experiences similar extreme volatility to most commodities, as evident in its 10-year chart. - GL.


#7

How high will gold & silver prices rise before currency traders get nervous about the U.S. dollar? If investors and central banks prefer gold & silver, the reserve status of the dollar is jeopardized. The U.S. has the most to lose from a loss of confidence in fiat currencies!


#8

Sara,

Who can say with certainty where the ceiling is in view of so much global uncertainty ahead? I’m not a Gold trader so haven’t a clue. Fair to say that it’ll most probably go higher, with the usual temporary dips, as long as we’ve growing fears of a global recession & a weakening dollar.

My previous point was that much of the so-called smart money probably entered Gold long before record highs. Those who trade Gold will also be keeping a close eye on daily volume for signs of the rally petering out & then prepare to book profits.

As with any volatile commodity, care needed at new record highs. Those who enter the rally too late risk holding the biggest losses for longer later on. - GL.


#9

But you fail on statistical analysis the gold chart is constantly in a bull momentum trend but there are bear cyclicals in between. As an historical long term investment say over 25 years nothing comes close to gold (there may be a few stocks).

Take from 2000, gold is up 450%+ you need to duduct 40% off for inflation. The FTSE is up 7%, the S&P is up around 40%, the NIKI is down 30% from it´s late 1980´s high on par on where it was in 1986. But the thing about gold is that it never trades or can go to zero.

Look at the frantic buying of gold by the Russians & Chinese, central bank buying hasn´t been seen on this par since the 1950´s. Many central banks demanding their gold back of the U.S. & BoE

The only thing that can hurt gold is if the U.S. raises % rates as was the case in 1980, this is simply not going to happen. Just what is coming? These Barclays share are going sub 20p, 2008, was just the prequel to what is coming up this time.


#10

I made 800% to 1000% in the same period. TWICE. In the British housing sector, which you have been telling me is going to collapse at any moment all the way.

The joke is, at the same time I’ve also had gold plays and still do. Your cracked record is just gold, gold, gold and has been forever. There is always a place for gold in a portfolio looking to preserve capital or as insurance in a growth portfolio. That’s it.

If FIAT currencies collapse your gold will be worthless, Chicken Licken.


#11

“But the stock market is forecasting boom and glory forever. There is no fear in the stock market. Stock prices are way up there in lala-land”

Basically what I am doing is speaking to primary school kids about mighty big stuff. The system is absolutely broke & rotton central banks are trying to do absolutely anything to stop the system falling apart. What we´re now facing is another bout of negative % rates, more huge QE. So on the one hand you have inflationary pressures & on the other you have deflation on the yield curve.

The recession isn´t the problem, the problem is an over inflated bond market that can blow up everything. Fiat currencies have long collapsed in the past but gold has survived them all! What an incredibly stupid statement & ignorant last sentence! Do you have any source to back it up!


#12

Just logic. How will your gold be valued in such a situation?


#13

I would imagine very well. If you want an emperical example just look at the events in Argentina & the peso & Iran, gold has hardly collapsed despite the currency in virtual freefall. Physical gold is a way out of currency controls.

Only about 300 out of 6000 hedge funds actually own any gold, what happens when they are all start to buy? You have a seriously big problem & that is QE & a huge bond bubble.

https://news.goldcore.com/argentina-turns-to-gold-as-inflation-tops-26/

"Argentines are buying more gold than ever to protect their savings from the Western Hemisphere’s fastest inflation reported Bloomberg.

Banco de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina’s only bank offering gold bullion coins and bars to investors and savers is negotiating with mining companies to purchase gold direct as surging demand depletes the scrap supply !"


#14

As I said above. - BARC up from 137+ to 148+ since this ill-considered thread was opened 8 days ago. Bound to be further volatility in a very uncertain macro-climate, but the point now validated by market action.

Post-Brexit these UK banks will be much higher still. That seems a banker (no pun intended). Only the timeframe uncertain.


#15

This is no “ill-considered thread”. You show absolutely no knowledge of the inner workings of banking/finance industry. This is just because of more stumulus (QE) by the ECB yesterday nothing else why banking shares have increased. The only thing keeping the markets where they are is collusion by all the central banks. Collusion is how they intend to get out of this mess.

The time is soon coming when QE will have the reverse effect to what was intended. These gains which are nothing special to the overall losses of 11 consecutive years of losses. The charts are still very deep in bear territory. I have given very good reasons with sources (whether they are accurate time will tell) why the banking sector should be avoided at all costs.

September, is normally a very volatile month where things gather paste. The ECB´s timing of more stimulus comes as no accident. No doubt the Fed will soon be following. The name of the game now is collusion!


#16

Well it’s true & seems pertinent to point out that you’ve flogged the same doom ’n gloom message for years on various BBs.

Indeed so re stimulus. But you can’t ignore the likely effect of it. Invariably it boosts certain sectors like banking.

With UK banks one also can’t ignore transient macro-factors like Brexit. Not least, that for all the recessionary fears we frequently read about or actual recessions undergone (they will happen), however severe, over time the global economy continues to grow. That’s confirmed by going back as far as you care to.

My point stands. One has be extremely naive to sell at loss at L/T lows. No experienced market participant will overlook the role that sentiment & cyclical factors play when entire sectors are sold off. They’ll avoid falling into the very trap that the big players take advantage of. For example, panicked investors selling cheaply at loss only for the big boys to scoop up shares at bargain SPs. Eventually sentiment changes again. Cycles repeat.

No-one will argue against the general view that banks won’t recover to pre-2008 levels. But most of us on these BBs who joined markets after 2008 have averages in stocks like BARC of well below 200p; average with LLOY under 60p. A return to at least those levels isn’t by any stretch unrealistic by any measure. To make out otherwise is to talk the most biased nonsense. - GL.


#17

This is the big problem, you´re lost. QE & low to negative % rates doesn´t help banks. I have even posted a credible source with this one. A fundamental element of our entire economic system, saving earns money and borrowing costs money is being unhinged before our eyes. As the Federal Reserve and ECB policy meetings unfold over the next several days, global central banks stand at a precipice.

Again you appear lost with this setiment v´s reality & why sectors are sold off (bell shape curves apply). My point stands. One has be extremely naive to sell at loss at L/T lows. No experienced market participant will overlook the role that sentiment & cyclical factors play when entire sectors are sold off. You have lost me with this point bubbles historically seldom reflate. This used to be the old adage prior to 2008.

No-one will argue against the general view that banks won’t recover to pre-2008 levels.??? WTF??? For this to happen % rates would have to go to say long term averages of 4%-5%, everything these colluding central banks are trying to avoid to prevent absolute carnage. The bull bond bubble would burst thus busting the entire banking community! Are you living in the real world? Explain your sentences! Prior to 2008, banks made their money fraudently either through fleecing their customers or money landering (something that still very much goes on in the City of London!


#18

SR,

I don’t know why you repeat my comments in bold letters, but then you don’t at least make that clear by using quotation marks?

Nor why you don’t use ii’s platform facility for quotes? Not complicated at all & it’d be clearer than the mishmash form of replying that you commonly use.

I’m really not sure what you’re trying to prove with your latest comments, nor how it relates to trading this longer-term. How low do you see BARC going? Do you have short positions here? What are your profit targets? Trading is the gist of it for me. The rest I leave to the crystal-ball gazers who think they know it all.

I’ve made my position perfectly clear with regards to my stake in BARC & why I disagree with you that BARC is a sell in the current circumstances, mindful of macro-factors weighing down on UK’s financial sector. IMO, it certainly wasn’t a sell at levels of 137+ as I stated before, as was the SP when you posted your almost hysterical thread title, & it’s not a sell now.

I’ve posted my trades live as evident on other threads. I now hold only real shares in BARC, no more leverage. I’m glad to continue holding for higher targets regardless of anyone’s doom 'n gloom projections. - GL.


#19


#20

JD,

You’re trying to have a logical conversation with Sara/Hardcore Uproar which is difficult at the best of times but impossible while s/he is euphoric about gold prices.