ii view: Wizz Air shares ascend on high ambition

Capital Markets Day and trading update

• Targeting revenues of €10 billion (£8.6 billion) by the full year (FY) 2030, up from €5.69 billion (£4.9 billion) in FY 2026
• Targeting an adjusted profit margin (EBIT) of 10% by FY 2030, up from 2.5% in FY 2026
• Targeting Cost per Available Seat Kilometre (CASK) by FY 2030 of 3 euro cents, down from 3.02 euro cents in FY 2026

Current trading

• Now expects second-quarter Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre (RASK) to be flat year-over-year, improved from down low single digits previously
• Trimmed previously planned second half capacity by 5%

Chief executive József Váradi said:

"Wizz Air’s strength has always been its ability to serve its customers through an uncompromising low-cost model.

“Our next chapter is about turning that structural advantage into consistently stronger returns by concentrating growth in core and growth markets, restoring fleet productivity, maturing our network and executing with discipline.”

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ii round-up:

Wizz Air Holdings (LSE:WIZZ) today laid down a series of medium-term ambitions, with the low-cost airline also upgrading revenue hopes on the back of better-than-expected summer trading.

The airline is now looking to increase passenger numbers to 127 million by the financial year 2030, pushing revenue to a potential €10 billion (£8.6 billion). That’s up from 69.7 million passengers for its 2026 financial year ending in March and associated revenues of €5.69 billion (£4.9 billion).

Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre (RASK) for the second quarter to late September is now expected to come in flat year-over-year, better than management’s previous estimate of down by a low single digit percentage.  

Shares in the FTSE 250 company rose 4%, having come into this latest news down by just over a quarter so far in 2026. easyJet (LSE:EZJ) is up by close to a third during that time. The FTSE 250 index has gained by 8% year-to-date.

Wizz operated a fleet of 269 Airbus aircraft as of late June with plans to grow that to 335 planes by the full year 2030 and 383 by FY 2033. Following the Iran war, Wizz suspended all Middle East flights accounting for around 5% of total seating, although has resumed some flights including those to Tel Aviv, Israel.

The Eastern Europe-focused airline is now targeting an adjusted profit margin (EBIT) of 10% come  FY 2030, up from 2.5% in FY 2026, with the Cost per Available Seat Kilometre (CASK) metric staying largely flat at 3 euro cents.

An investment grade balance sheet is also on management’s list, a move potentially up from Fitch’s (BB) and Moody's (Ba2) ratings earlier this year.

As with many other airlines and against a tough backdrop for consumers, Wizz cut previously planned second-half capacity by 5%. First-half results are due 12 November. 

ii view:

Wizz employs around 9,000 people. Seat sales generated most revenues over its last financial year at 56%, with ancillary revenues, such as those for luggage, making up the balance. Geographically, standout markets during the 2026 financial year were Italy at 13% of sales, Romania 11% and both Poland and the UK at 10% each.

For investors, uncertainties regarding conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to cloud the outlook. Higher energy prices pressuring inflation and therefore interest rates leave the backdrop for consumers generally looking tough. Group net debt of €5.13 billion (£4.41 billion) as of late June compares to a stock market value of £1.02 billion, while the many factors outside of management’s control such as the weather and air traffic control strikes cannot be overlooked.

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On the upside, an expansion of the group’s fleet and therefore passenger numbers and sales to 2030 and beyond is being pursued. A better-than-expected summer trading season has allowed the second-quarter sales estimate to be improved. Grounded aircraft from challenges at Pratt & Whitney continue to fall, while actions to hedge against volatile fuel and currencies remain part of its overall strategy.  

On balance, an expanding fleet of more environmentally friendly planes and high ambition to 2030 offer appeal. That said, more cautious investors are likely to await an improvement in Wizz's finances before taking an interest.    

Positives:

• Fuel and currency hedging initiatives
• Positive environmental credentials

Negatives:

• No dividend payment
• Many factors outside of management’s control

The average rating of stock market analysts:

Hold