Is this the bottom for Greggs shares?
With many peaks and troughs over the past 10 years, independent analyst Alistair Strang explains where he believes the high street food chain's shares are currently.
21st July 2026 07:27
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
We are always careful to remind readers we’ve never once bought a Greggs (LSE:GRG) product, nor have we ever even stepped inside one of their retail outlets despite their obvious popularity across the UK. This medically driven avoidance may even be reinforced by the latest organisation to catch our attention - 'The Campaign for Real Bread'. Armed with Coeliac disease, the idea of 'real bread' has been little more than a fantasy since 2004. Yet apparently there is now a pressure group arguing genuine bread should require between 24 and 48 hours to produce.
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Ultimately, however, our personal dietary restrictions have little bearing on Greggs as an investment. The company’s customer base extends into the millions, supported by an extensive nationwide store network, strong brand recognition and an increasingly diversified menu which stretches well beyond its traditional bakery roots. Hot drinks, breakfasts, pizzas, sandwiches and seasonal products all contribute towards keeping customer traffic healthy throughout the day.
The Greggs share price certainly doesn’t appear to agree with any immediate negative assumptions. Instead, current technical indications continue to favour further upside. We anticipate some share price growth in the days ahead, provided momentum remains intact.
Currently, movement exceeding 1,617p risks promoting confident gains towards an initial target of 1,684p. Should this level be exceeded, our secondary objective sits at a less confident but nevertheless achievable 1,796p. Such movement would reinforce the argument that buyers remain willing to accumulate the stock despite wider uncertainty affecting the UK retail sector.
Conversely, should events take a turn for the worse, a decline beneath 1,500p carries the threat of triggering a reversal towards an initial 1,432p. If this support subsequently fails, our longer-term downside target continues to indicate the potential for weakness extending towards approximately 1,222p. While this remains a less favoured outcome at present, it cannot be ignored and would represent a significant deterioration in technical sentiment.
As always, markets rarely move in straight lines. Short-term volatility should therefore be expected, particularly if broader market sentiment deteriorates or consumer spending weakens. Nevertheless, provided Greggs continues to demonstrate operational resilience and the technical picture remains constructive, we presently see little reason to abandon our cautiously optimistic stance.
Unusually, we’re inclined towards optimism, despite their gluten contents.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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