eyeQ: this FTSE 100 stock has sold off too far
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Now it’s spotted a new bullish signal.
8th September 2026 10:02
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
National Grid
Macro Relevance: 80%
Model Value: 1,223.20p
Fair Value Gap: -7.25% discount to model value
Data correct as at 8 September 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
National Grid (LSE:NG.), a popular income play for many investors, is back in a macro regime for the first time in two years. eyeQ’s macro relevance score is rising strongly and now sits at 80%.
Unfortunately, the emerging macro picture is not especially friendly. Model value is down 2.2% in the last month and 13.5% from the early March highs. Sticky inflation and volatile bond markets are the two factors primarily responsible for that de-rating.
The consolation is that the stock itself has sold off further and faster than macro conditions warrant. In fact, a -7.25% fair value gap is enough to trigger a new bullish signal. That bull signal would carry more conviction if macro conditions stabilised and eyeQ model value turns higher.
For many, the key debate on NG as a stock is the debate about updating the UK power grid. The need for investment is clear but there’s considerable uncertainty about how much, how fast and who bears the risk of such a massive project. Investors need to do their homework on that front, but macro has reasserted itself as a key driver of the share price and, at these levels, argues that a fair degree of bad news is in the price already.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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