eyeQ: should you follow Nancy Pelosi’s latest trade?

Nancy Pelosi pictured at Capitol Hill, Washington DC, in 2025. Credit: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images.

“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ

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Uber

Macro Relevance: 67%
Model Value: $66.10
Fair Value Gap: 12.4% premium to model value

Data correct as at 30 June 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model. 

It’s a brave call to take the other side of Nancy Pelosi’s trades. The track record of the former speaker of the US House of Representatives is so strong there’s even an exchange-traded fund (ETF) and several platforms that copy her positions.

Last week, retail investing forums were full of talk about her latest disclosures. Partly the choice of names - Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) and Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER) - and partly the long-dated, deep in-the-money call option structure that was used. The latter implies deep conviction in these stocks - it provides a relatively low-cost, limited downside way to capture upside in the underlying companies.

In terms of the picks, Intel is easy to understand. The stock is an AI play and appears to be emerging as one of US President Donald Trump’s picks as a national champion. It’s rallied a lot, but the story is strong.

Uber is perhaps less obvious given the stock has underwhelmed of late. It’s also less obvious from a macro perspective. eyeQ’s macro relevance score is 67%, so big-picture stuff such as growth and the Federal Reserve are important.

Macro momentum has been trending lower: eyeQ model value is down 26% since mid-April. It is showing signs of stabilising at the lows, so there are potential early signs of a bottom being carved out and possibly a change in fortunes. Maybe that’s what Nancy has detected.

But there are two health warnings from the macro perspective:

1. the stock has ignored the macro trend and bounced. This divergence leaves it 12.4% rich on our metrics, enough to trigger a new bearish signal.
2. the big driver of our model is inflation expectations where the relationship is positive, i.e. Uber wants higher inflation. And, since the peace deal in Iran caused crude oil prices to drop, inflation has fallen hard. One-year inflation swaps have fallen from around 3.50% at the end of April to around 2.15% today. That’s a massive repricing. The US inflation market seems to think the inflation scare is over and, on current patterns, that’s a negative for Uber. 

Again, Pelosi’s track record is seriously impressive. It’s worth paying attention to her decisions. But on this occasion, we’d argue that the risk-reward is skewed given the inflation backdrop and this is not one we think is worth chasing.  

Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Useful terminology:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model (macro) relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.