eyeQ: world’s biggest store chain stock is a bargain

“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

Walmart

Macro Relevance: 65%
Model Value: $117.20
Fair Value Gap: -10.55% discount to model value

Data correct as at 9 September 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model. 

“As you go through month by month in the last quarter, you can tell when fuel prices increase and get above $4, and perhaps there’s a psychological impact to that, that there are choices that consumers are making. ”John David Rainey, Walmart CFO, during last month’s earnings call.

In short, Walmart Inc (NASDAQ:WMT) remains one of the best real-time indicators of the health of the US consumer and its chief financial officer asserted that consumers spend less when gas prices hit $4.

This one simple idea has become the dominant narrative that’s keeping US retail stocks under pressure. High prices at the pump force shoppers to make trade-offs, shifting more of their household budgets towards fuel and away from other discretionary retail spending.

August’s mixed earnings results prompted an 11% fall in the stock. Prior to that, when Walmart first offered cautious forward guidance because of high oil prices back in May, the stock fell 21%.

Right now, the mood music on big box retailers is pretty downbeat.

This makes eyeQ’s Walmart model all the more interesting. WMT now sits 10.5% cheap to model value. Critically, eyeQ’s macro relevance score has hit 65%, our threshold for a macro regime, for the first time in a year. The combination of those two is sufficient to fire a new bullish signal. Our smart machine is saying the sell-off has gone too far relative to broad macro conditions.

For now, we have a systematic signal, but a discretionary overlay might suggest that it’s prudent to watch and wait. The signal becomes stronger if eyeQ model value starts to rise, i.e. macro conditions point to a higher stock price.

eyeQ model value is potentially trying to form a base - it fell to a local low of $115.77 last week but has risen to over $117 today. That’s because our model shows WMT wants a weaker dollar and calm in the US bond market.

We’ve had a few days of both. If that continues, macro momentum could shift higher and that, aligned with the fair value gap, would mean we have a high conviction bull signal.  

Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Useful terminology:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model (macro) relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.