FTSE for Friday: is FTSE 100 about to break above 11,000?
As he attempts to determine market direction, independent analyst Alistair Strang explains the importance of closing prices.
7th August 2026 07:23
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Last week, we dwelled extensively on the difference between a closing price of 10,910 points and 10,908 points. To most sane folk, the two levels are effectively identical, but with the FTSE 100 spending the last week carefully avoiding closing a day above 10,910 points – the market high from February this year – with exquisite care given to respect the FTSE trigger level.
As the candles show on the chart extract, despite plenty of intraday forays above the green closing price line, the FTSE has proven unable to break free upward.
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Once again, the importance of closing prices is being illustrated, it being a frequent truism to “really” break free of a trend, only a ‘higher high’ closing price dare be thought of as the only safe signal. Though, of course, there is no such thing as “safe” when discussing the stock markets, either indices, commodities, or share prices.
When examining near-term movements, it’s virtually impossible to use closing prices, but for the FTSE it certainly appears as if movement next above 10,952 points should bring a visit to an initial 11,017 points with our secondary, if exceeded, working out at 11,088 points. If triggered, the tightest stop loss level appears to be 10,894 points, a bit wide but does reflect the potential for the number of points gained.
In the interests of balance, we’re able to provide an alternate scenario. The situation is a bit wobbly, suggesting FTSE 100 movement below 10,830 points risks triggering reversal down to an initial 10,751 points with our secondary, if broken, a very probable market bottom at 10,721 points.
Our visual suspicion with these dance steps will be a belief the UK is indeed “parking” the index, while the grown ups from the market enjoy their summer holidays. Meanwhile, the FTSE should be trapped between 10,750 and around 10,900 points.
Have a good weekend.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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