FTSE for Friday: why nothing is looking certain for FTSE 100
The UK's main index broke independent analyst Alistair Strang's target yesterday, but what happened next presents a classic conundrum.
2nd October 2026 07:14
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Last Friday, our FTSE 100 outlook presented 10,415 points as a potential market bottom. The reversal was to take another four days to enact, with the strength of the drop proving as clear as mud.
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The index reached our target as shown below, breaking our 10,415 target just after 9am on Thursday. Ultimately, during intraday shenanigans, it was to reach 10,390 points in what would normally count as a solid break of the target level. However, this was not to be the end of the story, the index ending the session at 10,428 points and, from our perspective, failing to officially destroy our target given the market closed a touch higher.
While there may be a touch of saving face here, explaining a scenario where a price both meets target and fails to break it, this is always a frustration with our insistence on a closing price rule. Had the UK index closed below 10,415, we’d be cheerfully announcing a major reversal scenario commencing. Instead, we are forced into caution as nothing is looking certain.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
We’re left with a classic conundrum. The market proved our target level can be broken but also proved it wasn’t immediately ready to kick open the gates of hell with a potential apocalyptic scenario.
At present, about the only confident thing we dare suggest (for reversals) is of movement below 10,390 igniting a slide down to an initial 10,290 points. Our secondary, if such a level breaks, calculates down at 10,055 points along with a very probable bottom.
But not closing below our target implies some surprise strength may be waiting in the wings. Above 10,470 shall be viewed positively, potentially triggering recovery to an initial 10,515 points with our secondary, if bettered, a critical 10,589 points. This secondary is a fairly big deal, dropping the index into a zone where the market can challenge the level of trend break at 10,670 points and the potential of making the current drop something of a fake.
We do, of course, take all this nonsense quite personally as we’re guilty of treating the market as an animate “them” which is clearly ridiculous. After all, why would “they” avoid the index closing below our target level.
Have a good weekend.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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