NatWest and some hope for a share price rebound
It's not been a great month for the high street banks, so independent analyst Alistair Strang has gone looking for some reasons to be optimistic.
12th October 2026 07:18
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
We distrust the current reversal cycle at NatWest Group (LSE:NWG), given it was kicked off by a nasty piece of market manipulation (gap) on 1 October. The share price was moved downward at the market open from 688p to 679p. This broke the immediate uptrend (circled) and effectively forced the current unpleasantness. Visually, there is certainly hope for a rebound at the current price level, given the prior visit to 640p in July this year.
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NatWest hasn’t entirely forgotten it’s in a race for growth but the share price is currently showing some signs of reticence. From a Big Picture perspective, it seems weakness now below 633p risks triggering reversal to an initial 613p with our secondary, if broken, at 577p (hopefully a solid bounce before such a level).
Our alternate scenario, if things turn surprisingly positive, suggests above 655p should be worth paying attention to, capable of triggering share price recovery to an initial 700p with our secondary, if beaten, an eventual 738p.
If insisting on playing safe, waiting until the share price exceeds 660p may prove to be the path of wisdom, a price exceeding the level of a prior trend break rarely sending false optimism.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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