New targets for AstraZeneca shares
The UK stock market's largest company has reached independent analyst Alistair Strang's previous targets. Now he's run his software again and come up with some new ones.
23rd September 2026 07:10
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
When we last reviewed AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN), the share price was at 13,692p and we proposed a secondary target of just 11,757p if our drop scenario came to fruition. We even proposed the potential of a third level target down at 10,900p. And something very strange occurred.
The share price hit our target and overshot, the overshoot bouncing at almost exactly half way to our third target level. It almost felt like one of the grown-ups had noticed what was going on and designated a bounce level for unknown reasons.
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Obviously, this sort of thing hacks us off, forcing us to revisit our calculations and question every single decision. But there’s also the exquisite accuracy of a bounce level existing half way between two of our target levels. It tends to mess with our heads and, strangely, we’ve recently witnessed another new phenomena.
Often, in the event of market gains being artificial (essentially pretend movements designed to generate a buzz in a share price), these gains will only make it around 75% of the way to target before retreating. But, if anything then allows the price to exceed this phony 75% target, the second upward lunge will succeed with a degree of confidence which is rather unusual in the stock market. Similar illogical events also occur on the US markets, especially the Nasdaq where true gains are fairly rare, once one discounts the disproportionate effects from Apple, AMD, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia just one of whom can give the impression the Nasdaq is enjoying a stonking day.
Ideally, the Nasdaq is now in the situation where it should designate a Premier League and move the heavies away, creating two separate indices which shall be representative. In our opinion, it’s becoming a nuisance, seeing the Nasdaq reported with stunning movements but on the ground among real shares who’re not part of the current AI bubble, the market has been stable at best, really negative at worst. More than a few Nasdaq shares are experiencing all-time lows!
To return to the UK and sanity, we can quickly carry out a little experiment against Astra. Apparently, it is currently the case where now above 12,688p should trigger gains to an initial 13,330p with our secondary, if beaten, at a confident 13,588p. This initial target of 13,330p is our 75% target level, one where we suspect the share price may hesitate until such point the market climate proves sufficient to drive itself above, making a visit to our 13,588p pretty certain.
If we adopt this theory, we’d previously have provided 13,688p as our initial target with our secondary of 14,809p called a long-term target which would probably require luck and patience. It will be interesting to watch if this game plan works out.
Our alternate scenario, one which unfortunately is visually more likely, presents the potential for reversals for the share.
Below 11,598p threatens to trigger reversals to an initial 11,203p with our secondary, if broken, down at 8,862p. This would represent a return to price levels not seen since 2022.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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