Prospects for Tullow Oil after share crash
Significant gains in 2026 evaporated when the oil company lost a tax dispute with the government of Ghana. Independent analyst Alistair Strang explains implications for the share price.
8th October 2026 07:00
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Price manipulation on 30 September drove Tullow Oil (LSE:TLW) shares down into a ridiculous zone where a bottom of 4p became possible.
- Invest with ii:Open a Stocks & Shares ISA | Top ISA Funds | Transfer your ISA to ii
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
The width of the movement looks hard to justify. Down at the open on 30 September from 19.5p to 16.6p was a bad thing, reversing the share value below the Blue downtrend since 2024. On the day, with a closing price at 10.26p, it also broke the immediate Red uptrend and sent all sorts of wrong signals to the market place.
In the course of a day, it also broke below the Red uptrend since 2025, suggesting quite firmly that previous trends could now be ignored.
At present, ongoing share price movement below 7.8p risks promoting further reversal to an initial 6.2p with our secondary, if broken, a hopeful bottom with a bounce at 4p.
Of course, there’s always the risk someone will decide the drop has been overcooked.
In the interests of sanity, we can describe 11.8p as a potential trigger level as movement above such a point should prove capable of a lift to an initial 15p. This would emphatically return the share value above the Red uptrend, giving a secondary at 18.2p and a return once again above the Blue downtrend.
From our perspective, this would broadcast a few positive signals for the longer term, causing us to rush to our tea cups and view the leaves as it currently calculates as being able to double in value from our secondary level.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.